HEADLINES FROM SEPTEMBER 16 TO 30, 2024
During the second two weeks of September 2024, the following significant news items arose globally and seem to us to be the most note-worthy in the context of progress towards net-zero:
- It is that time of year again! Each year the
second two weeks of September tend to mark the
lead up to Conference of Parties of the United Nations
Convention on Climate Change (COP), this year COP-29 (the
29th COP, which is to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan). Key events this
year were:
- Climate Week NYC (held from September 22 to
26, 2024), is in many ways a fore-runner for each COP. The scale
and scope of each Climate Week NYC seems to
increase each year, with around 900 events reported to have been
hosted over five days. The theme for all events this year was
It's Time. This theme speaks to many
sub-themes. While each attendee will take away their own sub-theme
or themes from the Climate Week NYC, it would seem that this year
one of the key sub-themes that emerged was the convergence of the
objectives under the Paris Agreement ahead of
COP-29 and under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity
Framework ahead of COP-16 (the Convention on
Biological Diversity). This convergence marks recognition of the
extent of the commonality between policy settings at a country
level to achieve the objectives of each COP.
Ahead of Climate Week NYC, Generation Investment Management (led by Al Gore) provided some compelling input, with homage to Metallica, Nothing Else Matters as Much as the need to update antiquated electricity transmission networks across the European Union and the US. Al Gore has hit the spot before!
- On September 16, 2024, the G7-
International Energy Agency (IEA) Conference on Ensuring an Orderly
Energy Transition (in Europe) was hosted by the Bank of
Italy in Rome. As reported, the economic implications of the energy
transition across Europe were discussed, including affordability,
reliability and sustainability, and security of supply chains and
support for manufacturing.
Click here to watch a highlight video of the conference.
- Climate Week NYC (held from September 22 to
26, 2024), is in many ways a fore-runner for each COP. The scale
and scope of each Climate Week NYC seems to
increase each year, with around 900 events reported to have been
hosted over five days. The theme for all events this year was
It's Time. This theme speaks to many
sub-themes. While each attendee will take away their own sub-theme
or themes from the Climate Week NYC, it would seem that this year
one of the key sub-themes that emerged was the convergence of the
objectives under the Paris Agreement ahead of
COP-29 and under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity
Framework ahead of COP-16 (the Convention on
Biological Diversity). This convergence marks recognition of the
extent of the commonality between policy settings at a country
level to achieve the objectives of each COP.
Before COP-29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, comes COP-16 in Cali, Columbia. COP-16 is the Sixteenth meeting of the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, to take place between October 21 and November 1, 2024. In addition to covering key issues to be discussed and progress at COP-29, P2N0 will cover key issues for COP-16.
- Publications and reports galore! To accompany
and to inform discussions in ahead of COP-29 publications and
reports arrived thick and fast:
- IEA published:
- The 2024 Breakthrough Agenda
Report: This report has become one of the key annual
reports, covering power, hydrogen, road transport, iron and steel,
cement and buildings, and the progress being made or that needs to
be made compared to the previous report. As noted in the report,
the purpose of the report is to "galvanise public and private
action ... to make [transition across these priority sectors]
quicker, cheaper and easier for all". The report is excellent
and will be key ahead of, and at, COP-29.
The consideration of iron and steel and cement are particularly timely: iron and steel and cement (and the concrete resulting) are required, and as such they need to be decarbonized, with the sourcing of raw material, its transportation to the point of production, production, and transportation of finished product to the point of use of these two industries accounting for up to 20% of GHG emissions.
Links to the first (2022) and second (2024) Breakthrough Agenda Reports are attached.
State of Energy Policy 2024: This publication is a first for the IEA. This publication may be regarded as complementary to the 2024 Breakthrough Agenda Report. The publication provides an overview of the development of policy settings across the energy sector, and as such energy transition between June 2023 and September 2024. The publication provides an overview of over 50 policy settings across 60 countries.
The publication is tied to the IEA Energy Policy Inventory, which, in turn, ties into to the IEA report Tracking Clean Energy Innovation Policies. For policy wonks and practitioners alike, these are excellent resources. This publication, report and inventory are excellent.
- Towards Common Criteria for Sustainable
Fuels: This publication focuses on how to characterise
sustainable fuels (being fuels derived from feedstocks that are
sustainable), including liquid biofuels, biogases, hydrogen, and
hydrogen-based fuels. The analysis in this publication is built on
the foundation provided by the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
Scenario, contained in Global Energy and Climate
Model. The characterisation of sustainable fuels will
be key to whether they are characterized as clean or renewable
applying the same criteria for the purposes of different markets
and regions.
The publication provides a perspective that takes in the current policy settings globally, including in respect of hydrogen and hydrogen based and derived fuels, more than half of which provide for GHG emission intensity of less than 33 gCO2-eq per MJ.
As if to illustrate a number of points raised in the publication, on September 16, 2024, Simply Blue, announced its intention to develop a 600 MW green hydrogen-to-sustainable aviation fuel Goldboro SAF project to be located in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. No holding back the years here! - From Taking Stock to Taking Action:
This publication provides an analysis of the outcomes around which
consensus was reached at COP-28 (COP-28 Outcomes),
including achieving net-zero emissions in the energy sector by
2050, transitioning away from fossil fuels, tripling global
renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling energy efficiency
improvement and accelerating the development and deployment of
lower, low, and clean technologies.
Together with the 2024 Breakthrough Agenda Report, this publication will form the basis for the focus of discussions ahead of an at COP-29, and, it is hoped, an increase in the commitment of governments globally to reflect the COP-28 Outcomes, and other outcomes, in their national policy settings and laws and regulations.
The COP-28 Outcomes are outlined in Edition 6 of P2N0 (themselves derived from Outcome of the First Global Stocktake).
- Turning Pledges into Progress: The publication
reports on the progress (including the rate of progress) being made
to report the GHG emissions of oil and natural gas corporations and
other organisations in the context of emissions avoidance and
reduction targets, and now reflected in the Oil and Gas
Decarbonization Charter (OGDC).
The publication uses as its foundation the initiative of the IEA, the UN Environment Programme International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), reflected in the OGDC, and is intended to provide guidance and support as to how oil and gas businesses may achieve flaring avoidance and reduction targets, and how policy makers, and more broadly, investors and the public, may develop confidence in the achievement of those targets1.
Some facts and stats about methane (CH4) The levels of CH4 in the atmosphere are increasing, currently reported at 1929 ppb. Sixty per cent (60%) of CH4 emissions arise from human activities, with agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU), extraction and production of fossil fuels, and the decomposition of the organic fraction of waste disposed of to landfill (typically, landfill gas (LFG) gives rise to 48% CO2 and 48% CH4) being the main contributors. See Global Methane Budget for more information.
While the lifespan of a CH4 molecule is between seven and twelve years, considerably less than the 100 years of a CO2 molecule, each molecule of CH4 absorbs more radiative heat and as such has a greater global warming potential than a molecule of CO2. It is estimated that CH4 is responsible for between 20% and 30% of average climate temperature increases since pre-industrial times, with CH4 emissions having doubled since pre-industrial times.Because of these factors, the avoidance and reduction of the emission of CH4 to the climate system offer a route to near to medium term mitigation of climate change.
While it is relatively straightforward to track the levels of CH4 in the climate system, it is necessary to monitor activities from which CH4 emissions arise (including fugitive emissions along the entire supply / value chain), and then to introduce policy settings and laws and regulations to avoid and to reduce CH4 emissions arising.
It is recognised that avoiding and reducing CH4 emissions from AFOLU is likely to prove most challenging, and why there is a focus through the OGDC and why the capture of LFG from existing landfills, and the separation of CO2 and CH4, and the production of H2 from the CH4 is now the subject of pilot projects. This is in addition to the long-standing policy setting in many countries of achieving zero waste to landfill.
- The 2024 Breakthrough Agenda
Report: This report has become one of the key annual
reports, covering power, hydrogen, road transport, iron and steel,
cement and buildings, and the progress being made or that needs to
be made compared to the previous report. As noted in the report,
the purpose of the report is to "galvanise public and private
action ... to make [transition across these priority sectors]
quicker, cheaper and easier for all". The report is excellent
and will be key ahead of, and at, COP-29.
- IEA published:
As has been noted on a number of occasions in P2N0, what needs to be done is known! And picking up the theme of Climate Week NYC, It's Time. And for those in attendance at Climate Week NYC, the theme might be regarded as It's Time, We At The Tipping Point to Climate Crisis.
To view the full article, click here.
Footnote
1. By way of reminder, Edition 16 of P2N0 reported that:
"EU Methane Regulation goes live: On August 4, 2024, the EU Methane Regulation went live. As number of articles and publications have covered the EU Methane Regulation. Two articles worthy of recommendation are those penned by:
- Alex Kerr, Partner in the Global Projects Group at Baker Botts, and entitled EU Methane Regulation: A Problem for the LNG Industry?; and
- The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, and entitled The EU Methane Regulation – What will be the impact on LNG Imports?
Methane a key focus: The increasing levels of methane in the climate system have been marked, and the policy settings to address them would appear to be emerging recognizing that the concern about increasing methane levels is not new.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated consistently that to limit the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5O C, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations must be reduced by 75% by 2030.
In the words of the IEA, further action from countries and corporations is needed.
- The good folk at Top Science published Human activities now fuel two-thirds of global methane emissions on September 10, 2024, the fourth such publication from the Global Carbon Project."
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