ARTICLE
24 June 2026

Supply Chain Market Update: Carrier Surcharges And Capacity Discipline Drive A Rate Recovery Amid Logistics-Cost Inflation

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AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical challenges.
Surcharge-driven pricing and geopolitical disruption are intensifying supply side freight inflation, with tightening capacity in trucking and air and carrier-controlled ocean rates pushing costs higher despite still-muted demand. This analysis examines the widest supply-demand imbalances in recent history, marking a renewed phase of supply-driven inflation across global logistics networks.
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Surcharge-driven pricing and geopolitical disruption are intensifying supply side freight inflation, with tightening capacity in trucking and air and carrier-controlled ocean rates pushing costs higher despite still-muted demand.

Key themes highlighted in this month’s update include:

  • Global / macro: Logistics costs have reached their highest levels since April 2022 as transport prices surge and capacity collapses, marking one of the widest supply-demand imbalances in recent history and signaling a renewed phase of supply-driven inflation.
  • Ocean & air freight: Rate increases are being driven by carriers and disruptions, not demand-led, with ocean pricing recovering on surcharges and capacity discipline while air freight rates jump sharply (~30% YoY) due to fuel costs and Middle East-related capacity disruptions.
  • U.S. trucking: Reduction in capacity is increasing rates and compressing the contract-spot spread, in addition to the significant pressure of fuel prices on rates.

The report has changed format this month. Read below or download it here. Please reach out to okane@alixpartners.com if you're interested in receiving the heritage format.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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