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An hour after writing a blog post about a recent study mapping the large quantity of space debris in orbit (particularly in lower Earth orbit "LEO"), I learned that three Chinese astronauts were actively stranded in space because a small unknown piece of debris is believed to have damaged their return vessel. This is the second time a piece of space debris has hit and damaged the Chinese space station, Tiangong. Three days later, those astronauts are still stranded with no plan for returning to Earth, at least not one the Chinese government has announced. On that same afternoon, showers of debris were reported in the Florida sky.
The recent study by Kahn and Curlee analyzed 34,000 pieces of space debris being tracked; however, those tens of thousands of pieces do not include the unknown number of tiny fragments moving at incredible speed and able to do real damage. In addition to increasing the risk associated with space debris and potential collisions, this also brings up a big question of liability.
The US, the UN, and other countries all maintain registries of objects in space. Part of the reason for this is allocating liability if those objects cause damage. Under our current regime of treaties and conventions, the nation that launched the object into space is liable for any damage it causes. For instance, in the late 1970's, a Russian satellite reentered Earth's atmosphere over Canada, raining down radioactive debris and causing damage in Canada. The resulting claims under the Outer Space Treaty resulted in judgment against Russia to the tune of $6 million (Canadian).
But what happens when nobody knows what random fragment of space debris caused the problem? Which country bears the cost of the damage? What happens when such debris was launched by a private company? Under the current system, there may not be an answer – no body, no crime. The most recent push for space regulation at the international level, the Artemis Accords seek to proactively manage the creation of orbital debris, but even the latest and greatest international treaty does not contain the solution to this problem.
While objects larger than 10 cm can be found and tracked, the real danger comes from harder-to-see debris that can be as small as a bullet and travel at more than 27,000 kilometers per hour. "Those are the scary ones," says Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian. "They are time bombs in orbit."
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