Global Currents: Navigating Geopolitical Shifts And Their Impact On Ireland

RDJ held its Geopolitical event,  Global Currents: Navigating Geopolitical Shifts and their Impact on Ireland, at its Cork office at 85 South Mall with keynote speaker, Larry Donnelly, Law Lecturer at University of Galway, renowned political commentator, media contributor and columnist.

The keynote was followed by a dynamic panel discussion moderated by RDJ Partner Ashling Walsh, featuring Noelle OConnell, CEO of European Movement Ireland; Alan Werlau, Head of Investments at Barclays Private Bank; and Professor Eleanor Doyle, Economist at Cork University Business School. Together, they examined the risks and opportunities facing Irish businesses in today's rapidly evolving global environment.

Larry Donnelly's Keynote Address - Highlights

1. Tariffs Remain a Major Threat:
   The risk of tariffs continues to pose an existential threat to exporters with tight margins. The issue is currently before the US Supreme Court, but even an unfavorable ruling for the Trump administration may not end the threat—alternative avenues for imposing tariffs remain open. A Section 232 investigation is also ongoing. While many businesses, including those in pharmaceuticals, are preparing for a 15% tariff, the final outcome is still uncertain.
2. Digital Services Act (“DSA”) and Transatlantic Tensions:
   The DSA, designed to combat hate speech and illegal content, has highlighted a deep divide between US and EU perspectives on freedom of expression. Many in the US view the EU's regulatory approach as censorship and an unnecessary burden, leading some US tech leaders to align themselves with Trump for self-interest. The DSA could also trigger visa restrictions or regulatory tariffs.
3. Occupied Territories Bill – Virtue vs. Realpolitik:
   While the Bill is seen as morally commendable, it risks exposing Ireland to greater economic vulnerability, potentially more so than other European countries. However, similar legislation across Europe may help mitigate some risks. If passed, the Bill could prompt the introduction of robust State and Federal anti-BDS laws in the US.
4. It was suggested that anti-European sentiment exists within the Trump administration, with a perception that Europe is “freeloading,” overly reliant on social policies, and perhaps less dynamic than in the past.
5. 2026 US midterms. It remains unclear whether the midterms will bring significant change, with Democrats currently at their lowest polling point in 40 years. 
6. In terms of what Ireland should be doing now, the following key actions were stressed: a. Politician to Politician engagement will be crucial and there is no substitute for that. b. Irish Presidential race will be hugely relevant - a president with capacity to engage and maximise soft power on behalf of Ireland and Europe will be extremely important.  c. “More Berlin, less Boston” - diversification into new markets and finding new partners must happen and creativity will be key to working through the hurdles being put up by the “America first” policies in this regard.  d. Home grown enterprise will be important but “what's within our control needs to be done well” and without paying too much heed to critics who claim that the economy and GDP are being prioritised over society; we can't have a decent society in 2025 unless we have a high functioning economy. 

Panel Discussion

RDJ Partner, Ashling Walsh was joined by Noelle O'Connell, CEO of European Movement Ireland; Alan Werlau, Head of Investments at Barclays Private Bank; and Professor Eleanor Doyle, Economist at Cork University Business School to risks and opportunities facing Irish businesses in today's rapidly evolving global environment.

1. Global Economic and Market Outlook

Alan Werlau noted that while political uncertainty and tariffs have led some investors to pause, the overall impact on investment has been limited. Inflation has risen due to tariffs, but markets have largely absorbed this, and interest rates are now trending downward. Despite ongoing uncertainty, 80% of global portfolio growth at Barclays is driven by corporate earnings, indicating underlying market resilience. However, Alan cautioned that persistent uncertainty is far from ideal.

He also highlighted deeper, long-term challenges:

• The US faces an aging population and significant fiscal issues, as does the EU.
• Instead of addressing these core problems, political focus often shifts to marginal issues.

2. Ireland's Trade Strategy and Global Position

Overdependence on the US:
The panel agreed that Ireland must reduce its reliance on the US market, especially given tariff threats and ongoing uncertainty. Maintaining and expanding trade with European and other global partners is now more important than ever.

Noelle O'Connell (CEO of the European Movement Ireland) emphasized:

• The EU is “in senior hurling territory”—political engagement at the highest level is essential.
• Ireland is the sixth-largest source of FDI into the US, but diversification is crucial.
• The EU is actively pursuing new trade agreements (recent deals with Canada, Japan, Singapore; ongoing talks with Australia, New Zealand, and the proposed EU Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay).

Anti-European Sentiment:
Noelle acknowledged the perception of “freeloading” within the Trump administration, referencing President Trump's assertion that the EU was established to take advantage of the US. She emphasised that EU officials are actively working to counter this narrative and to strengthen transatlantic relations.

Upcoming Opportunity:
Ireland's Presidency of the Council of the EU (June–December 2026) presents a major opportunity for Irish businesses. With over 40 European leaders expected for the European Political Community meeting, there will be significant demand for services—translation, marketing, accommodation, and hospitality. Now is the time for Irish businesses to prepare and get involved.

3. Competitiveness and Future-Proofing Ireland

Professor Eleanor Doyle highlighted:

• Ireland's population has doubled since 1990, driven by both natural growth and immigration.
• To remain competitive, Ireland must invest in infrastructure, research and development, and housing. The tax base should be broadened, and investment decisions made strategically, as Ireland currently lags behind Europe in some areas.

Sustainability as a Strategic Advantage:
While US businesses may be less focused on sustainability, Eleanor sees this as a major strategic opportunity for Ireland. Emphasising sustainability can make Irish businesses more attractive to consumers who value environmental responsibility, allowing Ireland to capture market share left behind by less proactive competitors.

Budget Priorities:
Eleanor expressed concern that the government may overspend in the upcoming budget. She advocated for greater investment in higher education, particularly in student housing and R&D, suggesting a means-tested approach to student accommodation. She also welcomed the Taoiseach's leadership on the Action Plan on Competitiveness.

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