Voters in Cote d'Ivoire head to the polls on Sunday 18th December. 1,337 candidates from 39 political groupings (including independents) will compete for 255 positions in 205 constituencies.1 These elections are happening a year ahead of schedule following on from the referendum that was held on a new constitution for the country on 30th October of this year. Domestic, regional and international eyes are keenly watching Cote d'Ivoire to judge how far its democracy has evolved following the post-election conflict that struck the country in 2010.
Post-2010 Situation
Following on from the large-scale unrest that crippled the country
in 2010-11, the Ivorian economy has rebounded well, with the IMF
describing it as 'impressive2', although the
nation's human development indicators require attention. The
security situation is mostly stable – indeed, the UN Mission
in Cote d'Ivoire is preparing to retreat fully by 30 June 2017
– although earlier this year the country was exposed to a
terrorist incident in which the expatriate community was targeted.
Nevertheless, there is the general sense that people are settling
back in to their daily routines – including protesting
without fear of reprisal.3
The first major test to the robustness of the nation's
democracy since the 2010 conflict was the presidential election
that was held in October 2015. A boycott by members of the
opposition Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI) due to the ongoing trial
of their former leader Laurent Gbagbo & internal
struggles4 resulted in a low turnout and a landslide
victory for the incumbent Alassane Ouattara of the Rassemblement
des Républicains (RDR - part of the RHDP alliance).
Following on from that, a referendum was called on whether to adopt
a proposed new constitution. This vote followed the same pattern
with an opposition boycott5 and landslide acceptance of
the proposal. Whilst both votes were largely peaceful, the FPI said
they did not reflect the true will of the people.
Who are the stakeholders?
There are number of key personalities who will be in the
foreground in Sunday's polls.
- First is Youssouf Bakayoko, chair of the Commission Electorale Independante (CEI). He was in this post even prior to the 2010 elections, surprising to many given the outcome of those elections. The opposition is not convinced of his credibility and protested at the announcement of the renewal of his mandate in 2014.6
- Guillaume Soro is the current leader of the National Assembly. He has previously acted as prime minster to both Gbagbo and Ouattara as well as leading the 2002 rebellion that led to a civil war. An arrest warrant was issued by Burkina Faso for him for his alleged involvement in the 2015 coup before being dropped.7 He has pledged his allegiance to Ouattara should he win his seat.8
- President Ouattara as head of the RHDP is seeking to unite a movement that has begun to fray around the edges. He has called for a "strong majority" to allow him to accelerate the pace of work he has carried out over the past 5 years.9
- Pascal Affi N'Guessan is the president of the FPI who stood against Ouattara for president in 2015. With the party somewhat in disarray, success in this election is key to his political survival and has said the party is targeting between 30 and 50 seats in the National Assembly.10
Hitting the Campaign Trail
Only one week of campaigning was allowed for these elections so
most campaigns were launched on Saturday 10th December. There was
some concern as to what would happen given that this is the first
election since 2010 with a significant opposition involvement. A
coalition of 5 NGOs released a statement highlighting "the
strong risk of threats and violence" if certain steps are not
taken and rules adhered to.11 However, there have so far
been no reports of clashes with even the secretary of the
opposition praising the good tone of the campaign so
far.12 Campaigns have been focusing mostly on promises
of what the candidates will do for their respective areas as
opposed to attacks on their opponents. Social media has played a
large part in the campaign as many candidates have used various
platforms to reach out to younger voters as well as keeping them
informed of where and when rallies would be be taking
place.13 This has helped to give the impression that the
candidates are more accessible to the population that they
represent.
What Observers are Saying
The main domestic observer group Plateforme des Organisations de
la Société Civile pour l'observation des
Elections en Côte d'Ivoire (POECI) has denounced the
short duration of the campaign period but stated that a peaceful
pre-electoral environment" has prevailed.14 The
group will deploy some 1500 observers in all 205 constituencies
around the country.15 Another domestic observer group,
L'Observatoire du Code de Bonne Conduite des Partis et
Groupements Politiques has noted some improprieties, including
isolated incidents of bribery, intimidation and verbal threats in
various regions of the country.16 There is also a
short-term AU observation mission made up of 40 observers on the
ground though they are yet to make any
statements.17
Outlook
It is almost a sure bet that the RHDP alliance will emerge
victorious in the elections with a clear majority, led by
Outtara's RDR. The main question is how many candidates the FDI
can get elected and this will hinge on how effective the party is
in getting its supporters out to vote (due to the boycott, turnout
has not exceeded 55% in the past two elections). The more seats it
gets, the more of a thorn it can be in the side of the ruling
coalition. The critical figure to look out for is 86 – if the
opposition is able to attain this many seats, it will stop the
ruling coalition automatically having the two thirds majority it
needs to make any further constitutional amendments. While it is
unlikely that the FDI can achieve this on its own, it may be able
to do so along with some of the smaller opposition parties and
independent candidates.
Whatever the final results, we are unlikely to see wholesale
change in the economic prospects of the country. Having a viable
opposition bloc in the National Assembly may mean that there is
more scrutiny on the large scale public spending that is being
undertaken and greater pressure on the government to ensure human
development improves, however. Opposition legislators will also be
fighting to make sure that there is an even distribution of the
spending, not just in government strongholds. What remains to be
seen is whether success for the FPI in this election will help to
reunite the party. There is currently a split with those still very
loyal to Gbagbo, led by Aboudramane Sangare, choosing to boycott
these elections.18 A strong showing and subsequent
parliamentary representation may open the way to reconciliation
between the two factions.
The risk of an escalation of violence will always remain given
previous occurrences in the country and the relative tension
attached to these elections. However, given the manner in which the
campaigns have been carried out so far and the expectation that the
ruling coalition will win a large majority, this is not an elevated
risk. One possible scenario that could lead to violence is if the
FPI were to massively underperform, in which case, it will likely
allege foul play which could escalate, depending on the response of
the government and the CEI.
Footnotes
1 https://www.cei-ci.org/pdf/05-Candidatures-Retenues-par-Groupements-15-dec2016.pdf
2 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43953.0
3 http://www.theafricareport.com/West-Africa/cote-divoire-much-ado-about-ado.html
4 http://www.voanews.com/a/ivory-coast-opposition-party-to-boycott-election/2909387.html
5 http://www.africanews.com/2016/10/14/ivorian-opposition-call-for-boycott-of-vote-on-new-constitution/
6 http://www.jeuneafrique.com/44315/politique/c-te-d-ivoire-youssouf-bakayoko-un-diplomate-peu-consensuel/
7 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36468150
8 http://abidjantv.net/actualites/cote-divoire-legislatives-soro-parle-une-fois-reelu-je-resterai-fidele-au-president-ouattara/
9 http://www.jeuneafrique.com/depeches/382706/politique/cote-divoire-ouattara-veut-forte-majorite-aux-legislatives/
10 http://www.jeuneafrique.com/mag/379384/politique/legislatives-cote-divoire-fpi-rangs-desserres/
11 http://www.ivoireinfosusa.net/legislatives-2016-en-cote-divoire-cinq-organisations-de-la-societe-civile-previennent-il-y-a-un-fort-risque-dincidents-voire-de-violence-qui-menace-declaration/
12 http://news.abidjan.net/h/606181.html
13 http://news.abidjan.net/h/606146.html
14 https://laseve.info/actualites/societe-culture/cote-divoire-legislatives-2016-la-poeci-deplore-la-courte-duree-de-la-campagne-1526/
15 http://koaci.com/m/cote-divoire-legislatives-poeci-deployer-1500-observateurs-104759-i.html
16 http://news.abidjan.net/h/606160.html
17 http://newafricanmagazine.com/african-union-commission-chairperson-approves-the-deployment-of-40-short-term-observers-to-the-18-december-2016-parliamentary-elections-in-the-republic-of-cote-divoire/
18 http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/119336/cote-divoire-legislatives-2016-pro-gbagbosangare-fpi-vers-boycott
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