Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on December 8, 2022.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders– These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 13 leave application decisions coming out on December 8, 2022. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 13 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Possible Contenders

His Majesty the King v J.W.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 25% chance of getting leave.

G.S.R. Capital Group Inc v City of White Rock, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.

Nathan Johnson v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

D. Samra, et al v Rhonda Hong-Ching Cheung, a minor by her Litigation Guardian, Yuen Ni Cheung-Kwan, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Albert Russell Weaver v Thomas Donald Ikaika Miller, Administrator of the Estate of Lani Jo Weaver, Deceased

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Suzanne Rieger, et al v Plains Midstream Canada ULC

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Reva Landau v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Roger Poirier v Jeremy Logan, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Arvind B. Sharma v His Majesty the King in Right of Alberta

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Iristel inc c Telus Communications Inc., et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Ralph Peter Rieder zu Wallburg, et al v Plista Gmbh, Michel Gagnon, Stephanie Kohnert and Stefan Klimek

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Robin Cliff v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Eduardo Garcia Obregon a.k.a. Eduardo Garcia a.k.a. Eddie Obregon, et al v. Caja Paraguaya de Jubilaciones y Pensiones del Personal de Itaipu Binacional

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.