Welcome to #Election44, a daily newsletter from Fasken. Everyday, #Election44 will deliver a snapshot of the key issues shaping Canada's 44th federal election. From policy to politics, we'll keep you informed, and offer insight into how the campaign will impact you and your industry.
Where the Race Stands
The Liberal Party will likely enter the election with a commanding lead. According to Abacus Data's most recent poll, released August 12, the Liberals are in majority territory. If the election were held today, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 28%, the NDP 20% and the Green Party 5%. The Bloc Québécois would win 22% of the vote in Quebec - 15 points behind the Liberals. Angus Reid's most recent figures - also released on August 12 - suggest it will be a tighter race, putting the Liberals just five points ahead of the Conservatives, who sit at 36% and 31% respectively. But, no matter what poll you trust, one thing is clear, it is Justin Trudeau's election to lose. Indeed, 338Canada.com - a trusted polling aggregator - gives the Liberals a 98.2% chance of winning the election.
Campaigns Already Under Way
While the election may officially begin tomorrow, the campaign has already kicked-off.
This week, Erin O'Toole began rolling out the Conservative Party's 'Secure the Future' platform. In his plan for rural Canada, O'Toole pledged to connect every Canadian to broadband internet by 2025 -- five years ahead of the Liberals. His innovation strategy, announced on August 11, includes a commitment to cut the income tax rate in half for new patented technologies developed in Canada, and create a new $5 billion R&D fund for 'cutting edge technologies.' On skilled trades, O'Toole announced he would double the Apprenticeship Job Creation Tax Credit for the next three years and allocate $250 million over two years to create a new 'Canada Job Training Fund,' open to all organizations.
Jagmeet Singh will also hit the ground running on Sunday, having already launched the NDP's 'Ready for better' platform. The platform, which delivers a lengthy chapter on tax reform, calls for a 1% tax on households with assets worth more than $10 million; increasing corporate taxes by 3%, and implementing a 15% "excess profit tax." The 15% tax would apply to "large corporations that took publicly-funded COVID-19 wage subsidies and...paid out executive bonuses, executed stock buy-backs or paid shareholder dividends." On foreign investment, Singh would amend the Investment Canada Act to protect Canadian companies from foreign takeovers. The NDP's platform also includes implementing national child care, pharmacare and dental care programs in their first term, and overhauling Canada's long term care system.
Since the House rose for summer break in late June, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been busy making green infrastructure and spending announcements across the country. From his $1.53 billion announcement for Calgary's Light Rail Transit system on July 7, to announcing $25 million to expand a GE wind turbine plant in Gaspe on July 14, the Prime Minister has been campaigning in key swing ridings, and reinforcing the Liberal's 'build back better,' messaging.
The Liberals have also worked to mitigate criticism from the Conservatives on their government's pandemic performance, and criticism from the NDP on delivering a national child care program. Indeed, this week, the Liberals announced an agreement with Moderna to build an mRNA vaccine production facility, and added Saskatchewan to the list of provinces that have signed a deal with the federal government for $10/day child care.
The Bloc Québécois and Green Party, by contrast, have been engrossed in internal politics. Yves-François Blanchet has been made to answer questions regarding the Bloc's decision to select candidates without consulting members, while Annamie Paul has had to contend with ongoing leadership challenges and staffing changes.
Looking Forward
While the election is set to kick-off tomorrow, the ballot box question has yet to be determined. Will this election be a referendum on the Prime Minister's management of the pandemic? Or will Canadians look forward, and ask themselves who is the best leader to take Canada into the future? While many questions remain unclear, what we do know is this: when the election period starts, each campaign will have 36 days to pitch their vision to the country, and then Canadians will decide who will be Canada's next Prime Minister.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
