Global
Measles cases spike in 2023 due to slow down of vaccine uptake
Global measles cases rose 20% last year, driven by a lack of vaccine coverage in the world's poorest countries in conflict zones.
Our Take: With most of the large outbreaks located in African zones of conflict, medical works face significant obstacles to access at risk populations. Additionally, vaccine hesitancy has increased, which may explain why Pakistan led in total number of measles in 2023. The WHO estimates that more than 22 million children missed their first dose in 2023, a trend if not countered, risks significant future outbreaks.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization
Europe
French prosecutor seeks 5-year ban from office against French far-right leader Le Pen
The Paris prosecutor on Wednesday requested a five-year prison sentence and a five-year ban from public office against far-right leader Marine Le Pen, at a trial where she and 24 others are accused of embezzling European Union funds.
Our Take: If found guilty, Le Pen would be barred from office even while she appealed the cases. This would take her out of the running for the 2027 presidential elections, denying her a fourth run for the presidency. A verdict will be handed down before November 27, and a guilty Le Pen would upend the status quo of the past decade of French politics. As the frontrunner for the next election, there would be significant uncertainty if Le Pen is sentenced, not only over who would take over the National Rally party, but also whether the far right will see its fortunes decline after the verdict.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Politico
Middle East
Israel reportedly open to Lebanon ceasefire deal under Trump
Sources close to Israeli leadership told The Washington Post that Israel is aiming to fast-track a ceasefire deal with Lebanon, aiming to deliver an early foreign policy win to incoming President Trump.
Our Take: Prime Minister Netanyahu has historically been closely aligned with President Trump, who has historically been enthusiastic about military support for Israel, and likely sees his election as a boon to Israel amid its multi-front regional conflict. An Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has thus far stalled as Israel has largely opted to push for greater strategic gains on its northern front. Leaked portions of the deal indicate that Lebanon would agree to withdraw its forces from north of the Litani River, the northern edge of the UN-monitored buffer area established after 2006.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], Axios
Americas
Mexico threatens retaliatory tariffs
Mexico's government signaled that it could impose trade restrictions of its own if incoming President Trump follows through on stated plans to impose tariffs on Mexican imports to strengthen the US economy.
Our Take: Trump has made campaign trail promises to impose 25% tariffs in imported Mexican goods if the country does not act to completely stem the flow of illegal immigration into the US from its southern border. In response, one of Mexico's top trade negotiators told a radio interviewer "If you put 25 percent tariffs on me, I have to react with tariffs" – potentially foretelling significant turmoil for the significant US-Mexico trade relationship. Mexico especially is exceptionally dependent on trade with the US, while large sectors of the US, like farmers, rely on exports to Mexico. Further, trade squabbles could eclipse nascent cooperation on preventing Chinese trade dominance.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], The Economist [paywall], CNBC
Asia-Pacific
Philippines pledges cooperation if ICC requests Duterte's custody for drug-related killings
The Philippine government announced that its law enforcement agencies must cooperate if the International Criminal Court (ICC) requests custody of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte for an investigation into the thousands of deaths from his anti-drug campaign.
Our Take: The Philippine government's commitment to cooperate with the ICC in the event of a formal custody request for former President Duterte signifies a potential shift in Manila's approach to international accountability, as well as the culmination of a rift in the previous political alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Duterte. Duterte's ambivalent response – both welcoming the investigation and simultaneously threatening ICC investigators – indicates a sense of uncertainty over how the process will unfold. The government's stance may signal to international actors, particularly those concerned with human rights, that the Philippines is open to engagement on previously contentious issues, while the Marcos administration finds itself at a delicate juncture, balancing domestic political alliances and its regional and global standing.
Read More: Associated Press, South China Morning Post [paywall], Lowy Institute
Africa
Sudan death toll likely far higher than recorded, according to study
A recent report by British and Sudanese researchers estimates over 61,000 deaths in Khartoum state during Sudan's first 14 months of war, with 26,000 from violence, suggesting a higher toll than UN figures.
Our Take: Although the lead researcher said they lacked sufficient data to estimate mortality levels in other parts of the country, the findings in Khartoum indicate that deaths have largely gone unrecorded, with weakened healthcare systems, severe malnutrition, and disrupted supply routes compounding the toll. Allegations of foreign involvement in rights violations, such as the use of French-made weapons by UAE-backed militias, generate additional concerns over an already dire humanitarian situation, and could potentially prompt calls for tighter controls on arms transfers to conflict zones in Sudan.
Read More: BBC, Reuters [paywall]
Trade and Compliance
Iran and Russia link banking systems in sanctions evasion attempt
Iran and Russia have begun linking their banking systems to allow Iranians to use their bank cards in Russia — an apparent effort to blunt the impact of Western sanctions on both countries.
Our Take: Russia and Iran have been advocating for an alternative to the Western-backed SWIFT financial messaging service. Iran is completely shut out from the service, while most of Russia's largest banks were blocked from accessing it in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The efforts to create a SWIFT alternative has provided an opportunity for closer economic integration between anti-Western nations, but the process is moving quite slowly and is in its beginning stages. Nevertheless, this is another sign of increasing interdependence between the Iranian and Russian economies.
Read More: Barron's, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Disruptive Technology
Global crypto market reaches new highs amid optimism for Trump-driven surge
Reuters reports that the global cryptocurrency market's value has exceeded $3 trillion, driven by speculation that Donald Trump's election as US president could lead to more favorable regulations and a subsequent boom in the asset class.
Our Take: Bitcoin saw a meteoric rise to nearly $93,500, while altcoins like Ether and Dogecoin have rallied alongside. The influx of institutional interest, seen in the uptick of spot bitcoin ETFs, appears to indicate a broader trend toward mainstream financial adoption. This high valuation, while still modest compared to traditional assets, could attract more sustained institutional involvement as a result of the next administration's policy moves, potentially amplifying interest in areas such as decentralized finance and asset tokenization.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Wall Street Journal [paywall]
Energy Transition
Hoped for peak in global emissions from energy sector remains elusive
Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that tracks emissions sources and sinks, write in a new report that global carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector grew in 2023 and are expected to increase by 0.8% this year to 37.4 billion metric tons.
Our Take: This report was released at the COP29 climate summit, adding to the many reports that seek to create benchmarks and trends in the global initiative to transition to more sustainable forms of energy. One notable trend is that major advances in one country can be offset by increases in another. For example, increased coal use in China and India offsets curbs in the European Union. But renewables uptake in China is growing, with CO2 emissions growing by a smaller amount this year, which may indicate its emissions are peaking.
Read More: Global Carbon Project, Reuters [paywall]
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