Echoing a theme of his second inaugural address five months
earlier, on June 25, President Obama outlined a second-term
climate change strategy to meet "a moral
obligation to future generations to leave them a planet that is not
polluted and damaged." The President's "
Climate Action Plan" is structured in
three parts: mitigation efforts designed to reduce "carbon
pollution" in the United States,
adaptation efforts designed to minimize the
impacts of climate change on U.S. communities, and international
leadership to promote global mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Reflecting the likely insurmountable political headwinds that
climate change legislation continues to face in Congress, the
President's plan relies almost entirely on administrative
actions. For example, through directives to the military and other
federal agencies—collectively the country's largest
property owner, largest consumer of goods and services, and largest
energy user—the administration has significant opportunities
to influence market demand for renewable energy and the adoption of
energy efficiency measures.
Key Elements of the President's Mitigation Strategy
The President reaffirmed the administration's goal of
reducing total U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent below
2005 levels by 2020. He proposes to accomplish this by imposing new
emission limitations for power plants (discussed in more detail
elsewhere in this newsletter), continuing to
promote renewable energy with a goal of doubling renewable
electricity generation by 2020, further reducing greenhouse
gas emissions from the transportation sector via fuel economy
standards and
biofuel development, and achieving greater
energy efficiency in buildings and appliances with a goal of
doubling "energy productivity" by 2030 compared to 2010
levels.
The President proposes to increase federal funding for "clean
energy" technology by 30 percent in the FY 2014 budget to
approximately $7.9 billion. Such spending would be applied to a
wide range of programs and initiatives, encompassing technology to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions from
fossil fuel use (such as
carbon capture and sequestration), renewable
energy technologies (such as wind power), and advanced nuclear
power technologies.
Key Elements of the President's Adaptation Strategy
The President's plan seeks to address the physical impacts
of climate change by directing federal agencies to identify and
remove federal policy barriers to "climate resilient"
investments by states, communities, and private companies;
providing leadership in establishing climate resilience standards
and practices; and improving the climate resilience of federal
facilities and infrastructure. The administration intends to use
the disaster relief funding authorized by Congress in response to
Superstorm Sandy to address climate vulnerability in restored areas
and to use the experience to develop more broadly applicable
adaptation strategies.
Key Elements of the President's International Climate Change Strategy
On the international level, the President's plan proposes to
continue and expand a range of existing bilateral and multilateral
initiatives designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in major
emerging economies (such as China, India, and Brazil) and to
promote foreign investment in low-carbon energy technologies. The
plan points to the importance of U.S. leadership in forging, by the
end of 2015, a successor to United Nations'
Kyoto Protocol climate change treaty.
To make fossil fuel use a less attractive global energy source, the
President's plan calls for an end to U.S. financial support,
both directly and indirectly through multilateral development
banks, for construction of new coal-fired power plants overseas,
except in very limited circumstances. The President also reaffirmed
his pledge to seek a global phase-out of fossil fuel tax subsidies,
which the plan values at more than $500 billion annually.
Potential Political Opposition to the President's Plan
President Obama clearly expects opposition to his plan from some
members of Congress, particularly his direction to U.S. EPA to
promulgate new greenhouse gas standards for power plants, and he
has expressed no patience for any negotiation that does not accept
the scientific premise for his plan. In the public remarks that
accompanied release of his Climate Action Plan, the President
likened opponents of climate change regulation to members of
"the flat earth society," which was not viewed as a
rhetorical olive branch.
It is unlikely, however, that Congress will be able to derail the
nonlegislative elements of the plan, as long as the President is
prepared to accept public reaction to the inevitable charges that
climate change regulation will increase energy costs and kill jobs.
While the President will have a difficult time obtaining the
additional funding and fossil fuel tax changes he seeks in his 2014
budget proposal—it's unlikely that Congress will even
pass a formal 2014 budget—Congress has very limited power
under the Congressional Review Act to overturn agency actions, such
as the forthcoming power plant standards. Although such standards
can and likely will be challenged in court, the
administration's previous greenhouse gas regulations have thus
far survived such review.
Congress can seek to limit agency discretion via a budget bill (or,
in the absence of a budget, in a Continuing Resolution to fund the
government) by prohibiting an agency from using any appropriated
funds to develop particular rules. Last month, the House of
Representatives approved an FY 2014 Department of Defense
appropriations bill that bars the DOD from using biofuels, and a
House subcommittee approved an FY 2014 appropriations bill
covering, among other agencies, U.S. EPA that expressly restricts
EPA's ability to develop certain regulations, including the
power plant standards. However, it seems unlikely that the Senate
will agree to a budget with such provisions, and the history of
recent budget battles does not suggest that opponents of climate
change regulation have the votes to force a government shutdown
over the issue.
The results of federal midterm elections in 2016 might change the
balance of power in Congress. Current projections foresee a greater
opportunity for Republicans to take control of the Senate than for
Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives. While
the latter situation might open the door for legislative action in
support of President Obama's Climate Action Plan, the former
situation would leave the President with his authority to veto
legislation seeking to curtail that plan.
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