Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on April 4, 2024.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 12 leave application decisions coming out on April 4, 2024. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 12 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Possible Contenders

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc v David Gomel

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 18% chance of getting leave.

AT v British Columbia (Mental Health Review Board)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Association des procureurs aux poursuites criminelles et pénales v Procureur général du Québec, Ministre de la Justice du Québec

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Law Society of Newfoundland and Labrador v Robert W. Buckingham

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.

Lihua Fu v Ji Yao Wang also known as Jianyu Wang, Chiangxia Lv carrying on business as a Partnership, Ji Yao Wang also known as Jianyu Wang, Changxia Lv, 1146530 BC Ltd., Buffalo Properties Inc. and Buffalo Investment (Canada) Inc.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Bryce J. Casavant v Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy (B.C Conservation Officer Service), and Chief Conservation Officer

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Gabriel Rouleau-Halpin v Bell Technical Solutions Inc

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Association Gurdwara Guru Nanak Darbar Inc v Dissident Group Gurdwara Guru Nanak Darbar Inc

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Rickey Bailey v Capreit Limited Partnership

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Jean Bigaouette v Jacques Bérubé

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Roberto Orellana Gonzalez v His Majesty the King in Right of the Province of British Columbia as represented by the Attorney General of British Columbia

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Raynald Grenier v Attorney General of Canada and Supreme Court of Canada Registry

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.