Overview
The United States has just completed another highly contentious election campaign. The people, politics and policies debated on the campaign trail have created winners and losers, and the election will now dictate most of the actions in Congress and the Biden Administration for the next two years. Our 2022 post-election analysis is designed to help you navigate the new political landscape that was created by the November 8 elections. Our analysis discusses how major policy issues and economic sectors will fare in the next two years of the Biden Administration and the incoming 118th Congress. A team of dozens of Arnold & Porter professionals spanning a range of practices prepared this report. Our team is available at any time to talk with you about how best to engage Washington policymakers to achieve your business objectives.
Please read on for more of our overview of the 2022 election's impact on the future in Washington, or click one of the links to your left to jump directly to an analysis of the policy sectors that interest you most.
What was accomplished the last two years
President Biden took office on January 20, 2021 under unique historical conditions and his Inaugural address outlined four fundamental challenges his administration would work to solve:
- Addressing a worldwide pandemic;
- Rebuilding an economy that was ravaged by the shutdown of commerce and industry in the opening stages of the pandemic;
- Bridging fundamental political divisions over how best to facilitate racial reconciliation and equality in America; and
- Implementing long-term policies countering global climate change.
In addition, President Biden has made preserving American confidence in government and our common ideals a priority, criticizing the actions of his predecessor and his political supporters as threats to the civic health of the nation. These four domestic storylines have dominated much of the political and policy landscape during the first two years of the Biden Administration. These four storylines were enough to convince voters to expand the Democratic control of the Senate, and to hold the party's losses to historic off-year lows in the House that almost allowed the President to retain full control of Congress.
Over the last two years, President Biden made significant policy efforts to attack each of these four fundamental challenges, pairing major legislative victories with decisive regulatory actions in each area.
President Biden's legislative success comes despite three sobering realities: (1) his public opinion polling began to decline immediately after withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2021 and remained low compared to other modern presidencies; (2) he had a very small legislative majority in the House where progressives and moderates clashed over the size and scope of most major legislative items; and (3) the Senate was 50-50, and two of the Democratic Senators were the primary obstacles to legislative priorities of a President from their own party. In that light, President Biden's accomplishments during his first two years are historic in their own right and, taken together, they add up to a very comprehensive retooling of federal government priorities and spending for the long-term. Also, his last two years of success and the election results have likely given the President confidence he can work with the new Congress on several key priorities over the next two years.
Crisis 1: The Worldwide Pandemic
When President Biden took office, the vaccines produced in coordination with President Trump's Operation Warp Speed were ready to go to market. President Biden's team implemented a rollout plan that resulted in most Americans getting two vaccine doses by the summer of 2021 and tens of millions getting a third and fourth booster later in the year. The Biden Administration also coordinated worldwide vaccine distribution efforts that were largely successful. Back home, the Biden Administration led the debate and provided regulatory actions across the government about how best to reopen schools and businesses.
The number of Americans who have faith in the scientific bureaucracy of the federal government—the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and others—declined over time and began to resemble the political divide permeating across the nation. The bipartisanship that dominated initial pandemic relief efforts by Congress also faded during Biden's first two years in office, with Republicans' support deteriorating for subsequent COVID-related recovery packages. Recent proposals to provide more COVID-related economic relief, or even targeted funding for vaccines and therapeutics, were thwarted by Republicans on numerous occasions. While the White House continues to request supplemental pandemic relief and recovery funding, Congress has largely moved on from the pandemic.
Crisis 2: The Economic Recovery from the Pandemic
On the economic front, President Biden has been a historically consequential President, but the effectiveness of his actions will not be fully known for several more years. The stock market took a roller coaster ride—the Dow Jones and NASDAQ were up 18.7 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively in 2021, but the Dow Jones and NASDAQ are now down 8.74 percent and 32.14 percent, respectively, so far in 2022—with numerous days when contradictory economic data blurs the distinction between an economy in recovery and an economy in open distress. As the year closes, there are signs of recession in Europe that could spread across the globe.
Working with a friendly but historically small Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress, President Biden passed multiple economic relief bills aimed at restoring the country to its pre-COVID economic condition. The passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Pub. L. No: 117-2) was an early highlight of the Biden Administration's economic efforts. Tens of millions of Americans were able to return to work in the last two years, resulting in a historic plunge in the unemployment rate. A historic bipartisan infrastructure deal, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, Pub. L. No: 117-58), became law, and provides the base for improving American roads, bridges, public transportation, and ports to make us more competitive in tomorrow's global economy. The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act of 2022 (Pub. L. No: 117-167), passed in the summer of 2022, may be the catalyst needed to stimulate a long-term resurgence in American manufacturing and return the production of national security-level sensitive goods like microchips to the United States. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA, Pub. L. No: 117-169) in August of 2022 gave President Biden one final pre-election legislative victory, and it will have long-term impacts on the domestic pharmaceutical and energy production sectors of our economy. A summer executive order cancelling up to $20,000 in student loan debt for millions of young Americans fundamentally alters their long-term ability to purchase homes, start families and open small businesses.
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