If history repeats itself, the 2022 midterm elections will be a messy year for Democrats.
Midterm elections are often a referendum on the president's performance and since World War II, the party of the incumbent president has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.
At this time four years ago, President Trump had a 37% approval rating. And, sure enough, Republicans got trounced in the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats won control of the House after gaining a net total of 41 seats — the Democrats' largest gain of House seats since the post-Watergate period in 1974 when they picked up 49 seats.
Four years later, the tables have turned and the Democrats face the prospect of a massive red wave.
President Biden's approval rating has nosedived to 42% as Americans are dealing with the largest price increases in decades and the pandemic continues to dominate daily life. Inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve, has climbed to the highest level since February 1982.
Inflation will likely be the focal point of the national Republican playbook in 2022. They will undoubtedly argue that unprecedented government spending has fueled prolonged months of price increases in every sector.
CNBC's December All-American Economic survey showed even more displeasure with Biden as his economic approval ratings sank to 37%.
When James Carville said "it's the economy stupid," he was right. That remains the number one voting issue and Americans are feeling the pinch.
A December Gallup poll found 45% of American households report that recent price increases are causing their family some degree of financial hardship. And 10% describe it as a severe hardship affecting their standard of living with and seven of 10 lower-income Americans experiencing hardship.
Issues exacerbating Biden's problems include our bloody exit from Afghanistan, America's fatigue with the never-ending battle against the coronavirus, and the stinging Build Back Better defeat.
Recent special elections, the upset GOP victory in the Virginia governor's race, and near upset victory in New Jersey demonstrate that Republicans are highly energized going into the next election cycle – likely as energized as Democrats were four years ago in taking on the Trump presidency.
Meanwhile, with 36 governors' races across the country, Republicans plan to use Virginia businessman Glenn Youngkin's upset victory over Terry McAuliffe as a blueprint to flip eight Democratic governors seats.
Will the red wave land in Colorado in 2022? Republicans are likely to have some success, but the force of the wave may be blunted by historical trends that have seemingly moved Colorado from a purple to blue state. The same national messages will play here as inflation, housing costs, crime and homelessness have all caught mainstream attention. The relative weakness of the early challengers for the moment insulate current seat holders.
By most accounts, Gov. Jared Polis has proven to be a savvy politician. Polis is not nationally targeted and is seen by the highly acclaimed independent Cook Political Report as having a solid Democratic seat. Similarly, Sen. Michael Bennet's record for fighting for Colorado has been stellar. His opposition is unimpressive and the Cook Political Report also has his Senate seat listed in the solid Democratic column.
Colorado's incumbent Colorado House members, four Democrats and three Republicans, are also viewed as having relatively safe seats.
One caveat here is popular Republican State Sen. Don Coram, who has floated the possibility of challenging Rep. Lauren Boebert in a Republican primary. Coram is well-liked and respected on both sides of the political aisle and would present a distinct challenge to Boebert. Nonetheless, Republicans are likely to hold the seat.
These ratings and conventional wisdom push parties and major contributors away from spending significant money on perceived safe seats. Donors and parties want to spend their money where it will make a difference. And, that's where Colorado's new congressional district comes into play.
The new 8th CD will be one of the most competitive races in the country. The Cook Political Report rates it as a "Republican Toss Up." If the Republicans can avoid selecting an extreme candidate, they will have a great opportunity to win this seat.
Democrats need to retool their messaging to meet the moment. With democracy and voting rights under attack, the stakes couldn't be higher.
Originally published by The Denver Post.
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