Capital Values
A fall of 0.1% in the All Property Capital Value Index this quarter has indicated a slow-down in the rate of capital value decline, when compared with the 0.9% fall last quarter. The rate of growth for gilts has also slowed; 0.1% growth this quarter compared with 1.5% growth in the previous quarter. In contrast, the growth rate for equities is increasing; 7.5% growth compared with 6% in the previous quarter.
The All Shops Capital Value Index saw a decrease of 1%, mainly due to rising yields. Against the market, the best return was provided by Central London, due exclusively to a 1.2% increase in rental values. The greatest yearly movement was found in the South West, with a fall of 11.4%.
Scotland was the only region in the office sector to experience a fall in its capital value, but this was far less than in the previous quarter. The 0.6% rise in the All Offices Capital Value Index was the greatest rise of the three sectors'quarterly movements.
Growth in the industrial sector was marginally positive, as opposed to the fall in the previous quarter. Most regions were unchanged over the quarter but the greatest rise of 1% was seen in the West Midlands with the greatest fall in Scotland (4.4%).
Rates of Return
The rate of return over the three months to August for All Property was more than double that for the previous quarter. Returns on equities have been greater than property and gilts, over both the quarter and the year.
Central London retail once again produced the highest return. Over the year, the only regions to produce reasonable returns were Central London and Scotland - both in excess of 10%.
Only the office sector produced positive returns for all regions, with five of the regions out-performing the sector. Returns in West End, Holborn and Marylebone, Central City and Fringe City have been high enough, over the year, to out-perform equities.
The 2.2% fall in rental values in Scotland has resulted in it being the only industrial region to experience a negative return over the quarter. Overall, industrials have been the best performing of the three sectors, with an increased return compared to the previous quarter.
Capital Values Quarterly Movement Annual Movement Base (May 1988=100) Feb May Aug Feb 95- May 95- Aug 94- 1995 1995 1995 May 95 Aug 95 Aug 95 Shops 99 95 95 -3.4 -1.0 -6.8 Offices 88 89 90 1.2 0.6 6.9 Industrial 139 139 139 -0.3 0.3 -6.1 All Property 101 100 100 -0.9 -0.1 -0.8 Equities 160 170 182 6.0 7.5 9.5 Gilts 105 107 107 1.5 0.1 1.3 Rates of Return Quarterly Movement Annual Movement Base (May 1988=100) Feb May Aug Feb 95- May 95- Aug 94- 1995 1995 1995 May 95 Aug 95 Aug 95 Shops 150 147 147 -1.9 0.5 -1.3 Offices 147 151 154 2.8 2.2 14.0 Industrial 255 260 266 1.7 2.3 1.4 All Property 163 164 167 0.7 1.5 5.5 Equities 203 218 236 7.5 8.3 13.9 Gilts 193 198 203 2.6 2.6 9.8 Capital Values Quarterly Movement Annual Movement Base (May 1988=100) Feb May Aug Feb 95- May 95- Aug 94- 1995 1995 1995 May 95 Aug 95 Aug 95 All Shops 99 95 95 -3.4 -1.0 -6.8 Central London 112 116 117 3.3 1.0 5.6 Sub London 87 85 84 -2.6 -1.0 -6.7 South East 80 76 75 -4.7 -1.0 -9.5 South West 109 103 102 -5.3 -1.3 -11.4 East Anglia 108 104 103 -3.9 -0.2 -5.8 East Midlands 100 94 94 -5.3 -0.8 -8.3 West Midlands 117 115 115 -1.7 0.3 -3.1 Wales 116 112 112 -3.4 0.6 -8.3 North West 117 115 112 -1.8 -2.8 -5.0 Yorks & Humbs 97 93 92 -3.7 -0.8 -9.2 North 118 115 114 -2.1 -1.3 -7.0 Scotland 113 113 111 -0.6 -1.4 3.2 All Offices 88 89 90 1.2 0.6 6.9 West End 71 74 76 4.2 1.9 10.4 Holb/Marylebon 59 62 62 4.7 0.2 9.8 Central City 57 57 57 0.4 0.0 9.0 Fringe City 54 54 54 0.0 0.0 12.1 Sub London 107 108 108 0.3 0.1 1.4 South East 110 111 112 0.9 0.7 4.5 South West 180 181 181 0.3 0.0 1.6 East Anglia 177 178 178 0.4 0.0 2.5 East Midlands 270 264 268 -2.1 1.3 2.8 West Midlands 216 217 217 0.8 0.0 2.6 Wales 229 224 224 -2.2 0.0 -1.0 North West 258 258 262 0.0 1.4 4.8 Yorks & Humbs 293 293 297 0.0 1.4 3.4 North 230 229 229 -0.5 0.0 2.0 Scotland 216 205 204 -5.0 -0.6 -3.1 All Industrial 139 139 139 -0.3 0.3 -6.1 London 117 117 117 -0.2 -0.2 -7.1 South East 124 124 125 -0.4 0.9 -6.2 South West 135 135 135 0.1 0.1 -7.8 East Anglia 171 171 171 0.0 0.0 -8.6 East Midlands 205 205 205 0.0 0.0 -9.4 West Midlands 202 202 204 0.0 1.0 -4.3 Wales 163 163 163 0.0 0.0 -4.6 North West 233 233 233 0.0 0.0 -2.6 Yorks & Humbs 209 209 209 0.0 0.0 -6.4 North 224 224 224 0.0 0.0 -0.9 Scotland 310 301 288 -2.9 -4.4 -1.3 Rates of Return Quarterly Movement Annual Movement Base (May 1988=100) Feb May Aug Feb 95- May 95- Aug 94- 1995 1995 1995 May 95 Aug 95 Aug 95 All Shops 150 147 147 -1.9 0.5 -1.3 Central London 171 179 184 4.8 2.4 11.7 Sub London 138 137 138 -0.9 0.7 -0.2 South East 120 116 116 -3.3 0.4 -4.4 South West 160 154 154 -4.0 0.1 -6.6 East Anglia 159 155 156 -2.6 1.1 -0.9 East Midlands 150 144 145 -4.0 0.7 -3.2 West Midlands 173 172 175 -0.4 1.6 1.9 Wales 178 175 178 -1.9 2.1 -2.6 North West 177 177 174 -0.4 -1.3 0.4 Yorks & Humbs 147 143 144 -2.3 0.7 -3.9 North 179 177 178 -0.7 0.1 -1.8 Scotland 175 176 177 1.1 0.5 10.8 All Offices 147 151 154 2.8 2.2 14.0 West End 111 117 121 5.6 3.2 16.5 Holb/Marylebone99 106 108 6.4 1.9 17.5 Central City 88 90 91 1.8 1.4 15.2 Fringe City 94 95 97 1.8 1.8 20.3 Sub London 192 196 200 2.2 2.0 9.2 South East 190 195 200 2.7 2.4 12.0 South West 312 318 324 2.1 1.8 9.1 East Anglia 304 310 316 2.1 1.7 9.8 East Midlands 476 475 489 -0.3 3.1 10.5 West Midlands 372 382 389 2.6 1.8 10.2 Wales 429 428 436 -0.3 1.9 6.7 North West 466 474 490 1.8 3.2 12.5 Yorks & Humbs 511 519 536 1.7 3.1 10.7 North 442 448 457 1.4 2.0 10.4 Scotland 370 358 363 -3.1 1.4 4.6 All Industrial 255 260 266 1.7 2.3 1.4 London 218 222 226 1.9 1.9 0.7 South East 225 228 235 1.6 2.9 1.3 South West 249 254 259 2.1 2.1 -0.4 East Anglia 308 314 321 2.0 2.0 -1.1 East Midlands 371 379 386 2.0 2.0 -2.0 West Midlands 369 377 388 2.0 3.0 3.5 Wales 314 321 328 2.1 2.1 3.6 North West 438 447 456 2.1 2.1 5.5 Yorks & Humbs 397 405 414 2.1 2.1 1.5 North 443 453 463 2.2 2.2 8.0 Scotland 615 610 596 -0.8 -2.3 7.4
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