Key Findings

In the midst of a politically-contested nationwide housing shortage debate, a year on from Manchester's Devolution Agreement in November 2014 and a growing emphasis from central government on the strength of the Northern Powerhouse, we take a look at how Manchester is continuing to shape possibilities for local government by leading by example. We've analysed the data to provide an in-depth analysis into the perceived signs of economic recovery in the City Region to see whether the level of growth has been sustained and if the Northern Powerhouse, coupled with the government's aacknowledgement of the demand for new housing, is driving delivery on the ground.

In November 2014, ten leaders from the Greater Manchester area signed a devolution package with central government that will lead to the control of a £6bn health budget from April 2016 and will eventually give the region an elected mayor in exchange for control over skills, transport, housing, and economic development. While these devolved spending powers are yet to be implemented, the ability for Greater Manchester to be the first region to strike a deal with government clearly highlights its strength as a unified authority and this strength is reflected in this year's key statistics.

From the data in this year's survey, a number of key messages can be highlighted:

  • Residential development is dominating development activity, with delivery almost doubling from last year. The volume of residential units currently under construction is the highest since 2008, which is the biggest talking point of this year as it exceeds the pre-recession average. Indeed, above average levels of delivery continue to be scheduled for 2016; a year that is set to produce the highest delivery rate on record since 2007.
  • There was an absence of any new Grade A office space completed in 2015, the first time in over 14 years. This seemingly biennial reduction in supply of new space has put upward pressure on rents. However, the volume of Grade A office space currently under construction is 1.04 million sq. ft. within the study area, which is the highest since 2008.
  • There is currently no student housing development onsite for the first time in five years, and this current absence would appear to be primarily driven by planning policy. However, the University of Manchester have a large scheme in the pipeline in Fallowfield, set to deliver 3,000 beds upon completion, and Select Property Group has just secured major planning consent at the former BBC site on Oxford Road.
  • Hotel development since our last Survey will see the most rooms completed since 2007. Two new major leisure destinations have also been completed since the last Survey and we take an in-depth look at the success Manchester has had toward increasingly becoming an international travel destination.

Overall, the steady performance of both 2013 and 2014 has continued into 2015, but the dynamics of the individual residential, office and leisure markets are changing. The 2016 Crane Survey shows that the number of new starts is up by 40% on 2014 and a number of major schemes that were highlighted as key projects in our last Crane Survey have now been delivered (20 in total).

The healthy pipeline for the study area indicates that the local economy will continue to go from strength to strength if these trends continue. These signs of sustainable growth will ultimately make it easier to secure better devolution growth packages from central government in the future.

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