Chile: ¿Qué es lo próximo para el nuevo presidente de Chile? ¿Cómo se verán afectados los negocios?

A pesar de que sus vecinos dominan las conversaciones sobre complejidad y ambientes comerciales difíciles, Chile ha mantenido una reputación como un país estable y funcional que tiene reglas comerciales claras y relativamente simples y, sobre todo, que estas reglas no han cambiado a lo largo de los años.

En las elecciones de diciembre, el conservador ex presidente Sebastián Piñera fue reelegido luego de un lapso de cuatro años, tomando el relevo de la socialista Michelle Bachelet, que había respaldado al oponente de Piñera. Chile, de hecho, ha estado cambiando entre Piñera y Bachelet desde el 2006.

Desde que comenzó el nuevo mando de Piñera en diciembre, hemos visto que las expectativas del mercado comienzan a consolidarse. Los diversos ministerios se están perfilando, dando a las personas una idea de hacia dónde llevará Piñera a este gobierno, y parece que este será un gobierno centro-derechista con un buen equilibrio entre gente experimentada y nueva. Incluso hay algunos ministros que han formado parte de gabinetes anteriores, como el ministro de finanzas, Felipe Larraín, quien ocupó este cargo entre el 2010 y el 2014 bajo el gobierno anterior de Piñera, y tiene una vasta experiencia en asuntos de negocios locales.

Típicamente, los primeros 100 días de gobierno son cuando se toman decisiones y cuando comienzan algunos de los proyectos más emblemáticos. Por lo tanto, el mercado espera ver los resultados y el impacto de la reforma tributaria y laboral que el nuevo gobierno presentará al congreso. La expectativa es que esta reforma simplifique nuevamente el sistema y equilibre la carga tributaria entre los diferentes agentes económicos al reintegrar varios sistemas tributarios.

Lo que sí sabemos es que Chile seguirá siendo transparente con respecto a la regulación mundial, como CRS o FATCA. Las empresas no consideran que esto sea un tema de debate o queja, porque entienden que estas son condiciones razonables para un país que participa en grupos como la OCDE y que tiene como objetivo lograr una mayor apertura al comercio exterior.

Lento y constante el mercado chileno

Chile terminó el 2017 dentro de las expectativas, con un bajo nivel de crecimiento e inflación. El próximo año, también ve la inflación dentro del pronóstico y las correcciones al alza del crecimiento son permanentes. Sin embargo, todavía es demasiado pronto para decir qué impacto tendrán los nuevos movimientos de Piñera.

Una cosa es segura: Piñera buscará atraer más inversión extranjera. Uno de los principales impulsores para atraer IED es tener mejores (y más simples) regulaciones. Durante los últimos años, algunos proyectos han estado en el centro de atención debido a importantes implicaciones ambientales o sociales; esto es regularmente una razón para frenar los proyectos de inversión en Chile. Lo más probable es que se avance hacia una mayor seguridad jurídica sobre los proyectos a largo plazo, que a veces se demuestra que no son viables después de haber pasado por largos procesos.

Las conversaciones y acciones sobre las condiciones para el desarrollo de negocios locales también serán interesantes; dado que los agentes de inversión locales pueden atraer inversionistas extranjeros. Las expectativas de crecimiento económico no son grandes -un crecimiento de aproximadamente 1.7% a 3% actualmente parece razonable- y no hay expectativas de que la economía de Chile alcance un crecimiento acelerado. La carrera se gana a paso lento pero constante.

La reforma tributaria será el gran cambio que afectará a las empresas en Chile este año. Podríamos ver acciones sobre cuestiones laborales, pero creo que cualquier reforma laboral tomará tiempo. Asimismo, podemos ver cómo las pensiones pasan a ser el centro de atención, ya que la regulación no ha tenido ningún cambio significativo durante muchos años. Existe un amplio consenso de que es hora de una reforma de las pensiones. Estos cambios podrían tener un impacto en el mercado de capitales del país ya que los fondos de pensiones son muy importantes para el país, representan más del 80% del PIB, y como cualquier cambio tiene un impacto en las personas (es decir, aspectos sociales como la jubilación de los empleados) eventualmente tiene un impacto en el sistema financiero del país.

A pesar del cambio de gobierno, todo sigue como de costumbre en Chile. Esperamos que el país continúe siendo transparente y avanzando hacia la simplificación. Es una perspectiva segura y predecible para las compañías extranjeras que buscan invertir en América del Sur, y nuestros expertos se mantienen a la expectativa para analizar qué impacto tendrán los cambios en su inversión. Contáctenos para más información.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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