The policy changes are as follows:
- France will broaden its commercial and political influence on the rest of the continent. The bulk of its financial assistance will no longer be limited to former colonies but will be directed at the entire continent.
- France will drop its military defence role in the Franc Zone. This will include closing down two military bases in Central African Republic (CAR), from where France has launched numerous military interventions in its former colonies. Some 1,800 soldiers will be repatriated from bases in five countries, but a rapid intervention force of 6,000 will remain in Senegal, Gabon, Chad and Cote d'Ivoire (though these may be cut later). Like the US and the UK, France will assess potential engagements on a case-by-case basis.
France's foreign policy will be redirected to European affairs, notably its role in the EU and its desire to join European economic and monetary union (EMU). However, France will continue to expand its commercial interests in Africa. It is particularly interested in building strong relations with Nigeria and South Africa.
Implications for business
The policy changes have significant implications for business.
Anti-French sentiment
French business is at particular risk in the Franc Zone. With the exception of the Comoros, which wants to be reunited with France, suspicion of French motives has given rise to an unprecedented anti-French sentiment across the region. Chirac's announcement confirms what Francophone Africans have suspected since the devaluation of the region's common currency, the CFA franc, in January 1994 - that France is 'abandoning' Africa.
Political stability
France's interventionist policy has limited or contained post-independence political instability caused by repeated destabilising military coups, domination by a single ethnic group (which causes inter-ethnic tensions) and external, Cold War-period intervention.
Financial help
France remains Africa's largest single donor country and this financial commitment has ensured stronger regional institutions than elsewhere in Africa. If, as appears likely, France next reduces its financial commitments to the continent, these institutions would be weakened.
Emergency response
In the event of an emergency, French and other foreign businesses could depend on French intervention to limit the risk to personnel and property. The French military would also co-ordinate emergency procedures including evacuation and asset protection. Businesses across the Franc Zone will now have to prepare their own crisis management and business continuity programmes.
Implications for Africa
Cote d'Ivoire President Henri Konan Bedi' leads a group of African leaders who strongly oppose the changes, particularly defence cuts. The planned reforms would mean that the Franc Zone treasuries would have to bear the entire cost of defence and security. In Cote d'Ivoire's case French military aid paid for a French battalion to be stationed in the capital Abidjan. This freed successive premiers from having to allocate significant budgets to the defence ministry. Moreover, the existence of a small defence force dependent on France for its defence capability has limited the threat from ambitious officers in a region renowned for military coups. If France cuts the Abidjan military base, Cote d'Ivoire will have to develop a defence capability. This in turn will increase the prominence of the military in politics.
Recent recurring military mutinies in Bangui (CAR) and a spreading civil war in Congo (Brazzaville) provide an illustration of the levels to which political instability without French intervention can reach. France's rejection of President Pascal Lissouba's request to intervene to end Congo (Brazzaville)'s conflict is one of the principal factors in the spread of the civil war. So far an estimated 4,000 civilians have been killed in Brazzaville alone. Chirac's resolve will be tested if the war spreads to the oil centre Pointe Noire and threatens international oil interests there. However, if troops are deployed they will only evacuate French (and EU) personnel and attempt to leave property secure.
Cameroon is likely to be the first country to face a review of its defence and security treaties with France. President Paul Biya has ignored domestic and international pressure for political reform and official corruption is increasing. Economic performance criteria agreed with the IMF and World Bank are routinely ignored. However, faced with Nigerian military aggression along the Bakassi peninsula Biya has swiftly invoked defence agreements signed with France. When the crisis first erupted in 1994, France deployed a warship and a contingent of marines. However, France's commercial interests in Nigeria outweigh those in Cameroon. Consequently, Cameroon's recent defence pact requests have been answered with the supply of non-lethal defence equipment which could not offend Nigeria.
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