While various greenhouse gas regulation initiatives in the U.S. remain unclear, the United Nations's upcoming climate change conference in Copenhagen could ultimately affect businesses that currently produce these emissions. During the conference, President Barack Obama is expected to commit to cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.
The main purpose of the Copenhagen meeting is to draft a new climate change treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, of which the U.S. was not a party, and is set to expire in 2012. The 17-percent reduction is similar to the reduction established in the "American Clean Energy and Security Act" passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on June 26.
The Copenhagen conference is scheduled for Dec. 7-18, but Obama will be attending the meeting on Dec. 9, while most other heads of state will be attending toward the end of the conference. The White House has indicated that Obama will discuss a long-term plan, as well as requirements for reductions in India and China. Both India and China recently announced plans to reduce their "carbon intensity," which is a measure of the level of carbon emissions as compared to economic growth. India will reduce its levels of "carbon intensity" by 20 to 25 percent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels. Similarly, China announced a target to reduce carbon intensity levels by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels.
Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), a major proponent of the climate change bill being considered by the Senate, believes that Obama's commitment at Copenhagen could influence U.S. lawmakers to support the Senate bill. The Senate climate bill, which requires a 20-percent reduction from 2005 levels, is scheduled for debate early 2010. Most other countries set the emission benchmark at 1990 levels including the European Union, which has agreed to a 20-percent reduction (30-percent reduction if a global treaty is passed), and Japan, which has conditionally agreed to a 25-percent reduction. At this point it is difficult to compare reduction commitments since many countries use different baselines or different units of measurement for calculating emissions.
There also has been speculation that President Obama will announce the greenhouse gas endangerment finding in Copenhagen. Currently, the finding is under review by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) has asked the Obama administration to postpone the endangerment finding due to the recent controversy over the release of e-mails suggesting that climate scientists misrepresented and destroyed data.
Barnes & Thornburg LLP will continue to monitor these developments closely.
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