United States: Election Insight. Clinton Wins The Night But Loses The Narrative. Trump Stakes His Claim As Cruz Grabs The Mantle In Race For #2

If you were looking for clarity in the race for the Democratic and Republican nominations, last night's results will disappoint. Both the Democratic and Republican front runners, Secretary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, captured the most delegates across the four states casting ballots, but neither campaign emerged unscathed from these contests.

The delegate math still favors Secretary Clinton, largely because of her overwhelming support from Super Delegates, as well as her lead in committed delegates. However her inability to convincingly translate her winning southern state coalition of women, African Americans, Hispanics and older voters above the Mason Dixon line has allowed Senator Sanders to win delegate-rich Michigan, keep the nomination race in play, and may even offer a narrow path forward for the Sander's campaign. 

The GOP race wasn't so much about who finished first, but who would emerge as the front runner to challenge Donald Trump. Senator Ted Cruz looks to have ended the night with that mantle nearly in reach. While Trump remains on top, his lead is not yet insurmountable and a growing chorus of GOP strategists have concluded that a broader field of candidates offers the best chance for the party to advance a winning candidate in November. This means that the twists and turns, and insulting tweets, of the GOP nomination fight will continue well into May and probably until the GOP convention in July.

Secretary Clinton remains the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She effectively battled to a draw with Senator Sanders in Michigan last night, and captured all but one of the delegates in Mississippi. To this point, Clinton's campaign has dominated the Southern state primaries, but has failed to mount sizeable victories in the Rust Belt states of the Northeast and upper Midwest.

Senator Sanders' message of fair trade, judicial and campaign finance reform, and voters' perception of him as both trustworthy and relatable has allowed him to build support among a diverse electorate of progressives, young urban African Americans, youth and working white men and women. This cohort has kept him competitive in key states.

This fact is not unknown to the Clinton campaign and as the race shifts to March 15th's delegate rich states of Ohio, Illinois and Missouri we expect to see Secretary face these perceived shortcomings head on, as is her practice. Her winning Southern Coalition should translate well in North Carolina and Florida. We expect her focus to shift to building support among working class white men and women as well as a more concerted effort to compete for younger voters which to date have been a mainstay of the Sanders coalition.

In the GOP primary, the race for the right to challenge Trump continues to evolve, but it is clear that Senator Marco Rubio's campaign faces significant hurdles. The Senator's inability to achieve sufficient voter support to reach the threshold for delegates in Michigan or Mississippi is a serious blow to the campaign and heightens the make or break nature of the Florida primary on March 15. Senator Ted Cruz won in Idaho, finished a strong second in Mississippi, and finished narrowly below John Kasich in delegate count for the number two spot in Michigan. Kasich had hoped to put more distance between him and the junior Senator from Texas who defied recent polling to come in second in the popular vote to Trump, but third in the delegate count.

Going into Tuesday night, many in GOP circles have concluded that a strategy to prevent Trump for gaining the nomination requires most of the current candidates to stay in the race. The strategy relies heavily on Rubio winning Florida and John Kasich winning Ohio on March 15, both of which are winner take all states. In light of Senator's Cruz's performance in last evening's primaries, paired with Rubio's significant underperformance, we expect the Texas Senator to strengthen his hand in arguing that he alone can challenge Trump.

And he will have help. Massive amounts of spending by anti-Trump, some argue establishment, groups have been saturating the airwaves in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri for a week and will continue at a breakneck pace  into the March 15th contest. 

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have effectively "read" the dissatisfaction in the American electorate and made compelling cases to those who feel left behind.  Whether it is enough to propel them to the White House continues to elude us.



CLINTON 745, 461 Super Dels.  SANDERS 540, 25 Super Dels.  
TRUMP 458 CRUZ  359 RUBIO 151 KASICH 54        


Democratic         Republican      
99.9% Reporting        99% Reporting    
Delegates Allocated: 37/41      Delegates Allocated: 37/40  
   %  Votes
 %  Votes  Delegates
H. Clinton 82.60%  182,282  32   D. Trump 47.40% 172,300  24
B. Sanders 16.50%  36,284  5   T. Cruz  36.50%
146,543  13
          J. Kasich  8.80%
          M. Rubio 5.10% 20,691  


Democratic         Republican      
99.9% Reporting        99% Reporting    
Delegates Allocated: 133/147      Delegates Allocated: 59/59  
   %  Votes
 %  Votes  Delegates
B. Sanders 49.90% 590,386  65   D. Trump 36..50% 481,296
H. Clinton 48.20% 570,949  68   T. Cruz  24.90%
          J. Kasich  24.30%
          M. Rubio 9.30% 123,016  


99.9% Reporting      

Delegates Allocated: 32/32
   %  Votes

D. Trump 28.10% 62,278 12  

T. Cruz 45.30% 100,742 20  

J. Kasich 7.4% 16,517      

M. Rubio 15.9% 35,347


99.9% Reporting      

Delegates Allocated: 16/19
   %  Votes

D. Trump 42.40% 5,677

T. Cruz 32.70% 4,376 6  

M. Rubio 13.10% 1,759      

J. Kasich 10.60% 1,413

Dentons is the world's first polycentric global law firm. A top 20 firm on the Acritas 2015 Global Elite Brand Index, the Firm is committed to challenging the status quo in delivering consistent and uncompromising quality and value in new and inventive ways. Driven to provide clients a competitive edge, and connected to the communities where its clients want to do business, Dentons knows that understanding local cultures is crucial to successfully completing a deal, resolving a dispute or solving a business challenge. Now the world's largest law firm, Dentons' global team builds agile, tailored solutions to meet the local, national and global needs of private and public clients of any size in more than 125 locations serving 50-plus countries. www.dentons.com.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

To print this article, all you need is to be registered on Mondaq.com.

Click to Login as an existing user or Register so you can print this article.

Events from this Firm
26 Sep 2018, Conference, New York, United States

Dentons is delighted to support a global IT services and consulting firm Miratech as an event host partner at their annual conference called M-Force18 New York on September 27th. The event will be held at Dentons New York office in the heart of Midtown Manhattan, opposite Rockefeller Center.

2 Oct 2018, Seminar, Dallas, United States

We are pleased to offer a program of five sessions designed specifically for in-house counsel. Topics will include:

  • In-house corporate ethical issues
  • What recent Supreme Court decisions mean for business
  • Keeping lawyers out of your benefit plans
  • Litigation tactics for in-house counsel
  • Employment issues in the age of #MeToo
Similar Articles
Relevancy Powered by MondaqAI
In association with
Related Topics
Similar Articles
Relevancy Powered by MondaqAI
Related Articles
Related Video
Up-coming Events Search
Font Size:
Mondaq on Twitter
Register for Access and our Free Biweekly Alert for
This service is completely free. Access 250,000 archived articles from 100+ countries and get a personalised email twice a week covering developments (and yes, our lawyers like to think you’ve read our Disclaimer).
Email Address
Company Name
Confirm Password
Mondaq Topics -- Select your Interests
 Law Performance
 Law Practice
 Media & IT
 Real Estate
 Wealth Mgt
Asia Pacific
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
United States
Worldwide Updates
Registration (you must scroll down to set your data preferences)

Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including your content preferences, for three primary purposes (full details of Mondaq’s use of your personal data can be found in our Privacy and Cookies Notice):

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting to show content ("Content") relevant to your interests.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, news alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our content providers ("Contributors") who contribute Content for free for your use.

Mondaq hopes that our registered users will support us in maintaining our free to view business model by consenting to our use of your personal data as described below.

Mondaq has a "free to view" business model. Our services are paid for by Contributors in exchange for Mondaq providing them with access to information about who accesses their content. Once personal data is transferred to our Contributors they become a data controller of this personal data. They use it to measure the response that their articles are receiving, as a form of market research. They may also use it to provide Mondaq users with information about their products and services.

Details of each Contributor to which your personal data will be transferred is clearly stated within the Content that you access. For full details of how this Contributor will use your personal data, you should review the Contributor’s own Privacy Notice.

Please indicate your preference below:

Yes, I am happy to support Mondaq in maintaining its free to view business model by agreeing to allow Mondaq to share my personal data with Contributors whose Content I access
No, I do not want Mondaq to share my personal data with Contributors

Also please let us know whether you are happy to receive communications promoting products and services offered by Mondaq:

Yes, I am happy to received promotional communications from Mondaq
No, please do not send me promotional communications from Mondaq
Terms & Conditions

Mondaq.com (the Website) is owned and managed by Mondaq Ltd (Mondaq). Mondaq grants you a non-exclusive, revocable licence to access the Website and associated services, such as the Mondaq News Alerts (Services), subject to and in consideration of your compliance with the following terms and conditions of use (Terms). Your use of the Website and/or Services constitutes your agreement to the Terms. Mondaq may terminate your use of the Website and Services if you are in breach of these Terms or if Mondaq decides to terminate the licence granted hereunder for any reason whatsoever.

Use of www.mondaq.com

To Use Mondaq.com you must be: eighteen (18) years old or over; legally capable of entering into binding contracts; and not in any way prohibited by the applicable law to enter into these Terms in the jurisdiction which you are currently located.

You may use the Website as an unregistered user, however, you are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the Content or to receive the Services.

You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these Terms or with the prior written consent of Mondaq. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information from the Content. Nor shall you extract information about users or Contributors in order to offer them any services or products.

In your use of the Website and/or Services you shall: comply with all applicable laws, regulations, directives and legislations which apply to your Use of the Website and/or Services in whatever country you are physically located including without limitation any and all consumer law, export control laws and regulations; provide to us true, correct and accurate information and promptly inform us in the event that any information that you have provided to us changes or becomes inaccurate; notify Mondaq immediately of any circumstances where you have reason to believe that any Intellectual Property Rights or any other rights of any third party may have been infringed; co-operate with reasonable security or other checks or requests for information made by Mondaq from time to time; and at all times be fully liable for the breach of any of these Terms by a third party using your login details to access the Website and/or Services

however, you shall not: do anything likely to impair, interfere with or damage or cause harm or distress to any persons, or the network; do anything that will infringe any Intellectual Property Rights or other rights of Mondaq or any third party; or use the Website, Services and/or Content otherwise than in accordance with these Terms; use any trade marks or service marks of Mondaq or the Contributors, or do anything which may be seen to take unfair advantage of the reputation and goodwill of Mondaq or the Contributors, or the Website, Services and/or Content.

Mondaq reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to take any action that it deems necessary and appropriate in the event it considers that there is a breach or threatened breach of the Terms.

Mondaq’s Rights and Obligations

Unless otherwise expressly set out to the contrary, nothing in these Terms shall serve to transfer from Mondaq to you, any Intellectual Property Rights owned by and/or licensed to Mondaq and all rights, title and interest in and to such Intellectual Property Rights will remain exclusively with Mondaq and/or its licensors.

Mondaq shall use its reasonable endeavours to make the Website and Services available to you at all times, but we cannot guarantee an uninterrupted and fault free service.

Mondaq reserves the right to make changes to the services and/or the Website or part thereof, from time to time, and we may add, remove, modify and/or vary any elements of features and functionalities of the Website or the services.

Mondaq also reserves the right from time to time to monitor your Use of the Website and/or services.


The Content is general information only. It is not intended to constitute legal advice or seek to be the complete and comprehensive statement of the law, nor is it intended to address your specific requirements or provide advice on which reliance should be placed. Mondaq and/or its Contributors and other suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the Content for any purpose. All Content provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq and/or its Contributors and other suppliers hereby exclude and disclaim all representations, warranties or guarantees with regard to the Content, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mondaq expressly excludes all representations, warranties, obligations, and liabilities arising out of or in connection with all Content. In no event shall Mondaq and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Content or performance of Mondaq’s Services.


Mondaq may alter or amend these Terms by amending them on the Website. By continuing to Use the Services and/or the Website after such amendment, you will be deemed to have accepted any amendment to these Terms.

These Terms shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England and Wales and you irrevocably submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of England and Wales to settle any dispute which may arise out of or in connection with these Terms. If you live outside the United Kingdom, English law shall apply only to the extent that English law shall not deprive you of any legal protection accorded in accordance with the law of the place where you are habitually resident ("Local Law"). In the event English law deprives you of any legal protection which is accorded to you under Local Law, then these terms shall be governed by Local Law and any dispute or claim arising out of or in connection with these Terms shall be subject to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts where you are habitually resident.

You may print and keep a copy of these Terms, which form the entire agreement between you and Mondaq and supersede any other communications or advertising in respect of the Service and/or the Website.

No delay in exercising or non-exercise by you and/or Mondaq of any of its rights under or in connection with these Terms shall operate as a waiver or release of each of your or Mondaq’s right. Rather, any such waiver or release must be specifically granted in writing signed by the party granting it.

If any part of these Terms is held unenforceable, that part shall be enforced to the maximum extent permissible so as to give effect to the intent of the parties, and the Terms shall continue in full force and effect.

Mondaq shall not incur any liability to you on account of any loss or damage resulting from any delay or failure to perform all or any part of these Terms if such delay or failure is caused, in whole or in part, by events, occurrences, or causes beyond the control of Mondaq. Such events, occurrences or causes will include, without limitation, acts of God, strikes, lockouts, server and network failure, riots, acts of war, earthquakes, fire and explosions.

By clicking Register you state you have read and agree to our Terms and Conditions