United States: New Studies On Carbon Dioxide And Historic Global Temperature Trends Add Heat To The Climate Change Discussion

Carbon dioxide measurements from Mauna Loa in Hawaii are the longest continuous survey of carbon dioxide [CO2] atmospheric concentrations. According to a Smithsonian Institute blog post interpreting a recent report issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the measured carbon dioxide levels in the air atop Mauna Loa jumped by 2.67 parts per million in 2012 (from approximately 392 ppm to 395 ppm). This measurement is the second highest annual rise in carbon emissions since record-keeping began in 1959. 

A March 8th Science magazine study reconstructed global temperatures over the last approximately 11,500 years and concluded that, although there have been warmer periods than today 10,000 years ago, global temperature have "risen from near the coldest to the warmest levels ... during the past century, reversing the long-term cooling trend that began" over 5,000 years ago. A March 1st Science article provided additional scientific associations between historic carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures by finding a "tight coupling between regional Antarctic temperatures and CO2 concentrations" approximately 10,000 to 20,000 years ago, thereby adding some evidence of a link between the two.

Of course, no one measurement of an annual increase or decrease or study based on scientific reconstructions necessarily demonstrates a long-term trend and the NOAA website notes that data reported for 2012 are still preliminary. The current international voluntary goal is to limit global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit over pre-industrial temperature levels, not carbon dioxide levels. The United States National Academy of Science reported in 2011 that the average temperature of the Earth's surface has already increased by about 1.4  F over the past 100 years. These new reports are likely to add to the ongoing greenhouse gas public policy debate.

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