UK: Investment Outlook - Global Markets – Still Liquidity Driven

Last Updated: 24 January 2007

Over the past quarter, global equities have overcome their May setback and are closing in on their 2000 highs, despite some economic cross-currents that made the oil and mining sectors particularly volatile.

The fears of a US slowdown driven by the housing market were alleviated by the ongoing weakness in the oil price as inventories rose and the risk of disruption from hurricanes or Middle East tensions faded. The US housing market and the US economy no longer seem to be heading for a hard landing. Corporate earnings are not under pressure, and equities have become more attractive.

Global fund managers are divided about prospects. The latest Merrill Lynch regional survey shows a general consensus that the global economy and corporate earnings are slowing. Although regarding European, and especially US equity markets as undervalued, managers have lacked the courage of their convictions to run down their overweight cash positions. They should. We see further upside potential, based on a still healthy world economy, modest valuations and ongoing growth in corporate earnings. Most of all, we continue to see world markets being driven by liquidity which is fuelling merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

USA – the cloud of unknowing

We believe that the risk of recession has been significantly reduced by the fall in both the gasoline price and mortgage rates, and the current slowdown looks increasingly like a mid-cycle correction rather than anything worse. Indeed the Conference Board Leading Indicator rose in September for the first time in three months. The Dow has risen above the 12,000 level, and share price volatility is back to a 13-year low, suggesting that investors believe that economic cycles have become less extreme. The corporate results season passed with few unpleasant surprises, and we believe the market has further upside. Investors have still to evaluate the impact of the recent Democrat victories, but this is a story for 2007.

UK – bad news as corporate tax rates likely to fall

Despite a strong third quarter GDP number, which saw the economy growing by 2.8%, this has yet to translate into a healthier budget position; the latest monthly deficit, Ł12.3bn, was the highest September figure on record. VAT receipts are still suffering from carousel fraud, but corporation tax receipts are booming, and companies are beginning to protest. Companies domiciled in the UK are trying to mitigate tax by moving to lower-tax domiciles. This will put pressure on the Chancellor to find ways of reducing the tax burden on companies, but there is no suggestion from the Treasury that government expenditure will decline pari passu. Accordingly, we cannot expect the Chancellor to be generous to his captive market – individual taxpayers – few of whom are in a position to change domicile.

Meanwhile the Bank of England Inflation Report was surprisingly dovish. The Old Lady had feared that the economy is growing too fast for comfort, and that interest rates will have to rise, but has been forced to admit that, while immigration has boosted growth, it has also put downward pressure on wages – a view we have held for some time. We believe rates are now on hold. Equity valuations remain attractive.

Europe – budget bonanzas

The recovery in the economies is yielding unexpected bonuses for beleaguered governments. For the first three quarters of the year, German tax receipts have risen by 7.8% year-on-year and the budget deficit will fall well below the 3% of GDP threshold required by Brussels, a year ahead of schedule.

Despite the disappointing Italian Budget, which has made two rating agencies downgrade its credit rating, and the failure of the French Government to introduce labour reform ahead of the 2007 election, we remain optimistic of the Eurozone as a whole. We believe that growth will continue to surprise on the upside – as will M&A activity.

Far East – how long can the yen remain cheap?

China’s growth is becoming monotonous – third quarter GDP grew by 10.4%, while industrial output grew by 16.1%. Retail sales rose by 13.9%, powered by a strong rise in both urban and rural incomes. Indeed, we expect the growing importance of the Chinese consumer to offset the US slowdown in 2007.

Indian growth is also accelerating – August industrial output rose by 9.7% year-on-year – despite a relatively stagnant agricultural sector, and the determined opposition of the government’s communist coalition partners to attempts to modernise the economy.

Clearly there is a lot of liquidity in Asia at present. The world’s largest individual public offering, for ICBC, China’s third largest bank, generated global orders of over $400bn, making the issue more than 20 times oversubscribed. Data out of Japan, however, remains somewhat disappointing, and despite the upbeat Tankan report and the undervalued yen, we would like to see some better news before committing new funds.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

To print this article, all you need is to be registered on

Click to Login as an existing user or Register so you can print this article.

In association with
Related Video
Up-coming Events Search
Font Size:
Mondaq on Twitter
Register for Access and our Free Biweekly Alert for
This service is completely free. Access 250,000 archived articles from 100+ countries and get a personalised email twice a week covering developments (and yes, our lawyers like to think you’ve read our Disclaimer).
Email Address
Company Name
Confirm Password
Mondaq Topics -- Select your Interests
 Law Performance
 Law Practice
 Media & IT
 Real Estate
 Wealth Mgt
Asia Pacific
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
United States
Worldwide Updates
Check to state you have read and
agree to our Terms and Conditions

Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement (the Website) is owned and managed by Mondaq Ltd and as a user you are granted a non-exclusive, revocable license to access the Website under its terms and conditions of use. Your use of the Website constitutes your agreement to the following terms and conditions of use. Mondaq Ltd may terminate your use of the Website if you are in breach of these terms and conditions or if Mondaq Ltd decides to terminate your license of use for whatever reason.

Use of

You may use the Website but are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the content and articles available (the Content). You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these terms & conditions or with the prior written consent of Mondaq Ltd. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information about’s content, users or contributors in order to offer them any services or products which compete directly or indirectly with Mondaq Ltd’s services and products.


Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published on this server for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from this server.

The documents and related graphics published on this server could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time.


Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including what sort of information you are interested in, for three primary purposes:

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, newsletter alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our information providers who provide information free for your use.

Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) do not sell or provide your details to third parties other than information providers. The reason we provide our information providers with this information is so that they can measure the response their articles are receiving and provide you with information about their products and services.

If you do not want us to provide your name and email address you may opt out by clicking here .

If you do not wish to receive any future announcements of products and services offered by Mondaq by clicking here .

Information Collection and Use

We require site users to register with Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to view the free information on the site. We also collect information from our users at several different points on the websites: this is so that we can customise the sites according to individual usage, provide 'session-aware' functionality, and ensure that content is acquired and developed appropriately. This gives us an overall picture of our user profiles, which in turn shows to our Editorial Contributors the type of person they are reaching by posting articles on Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) – meaning more free content for registered users.

We are only able to provide the material on the Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) site free to site visitors because we can pass on information about the pages that users are viewing and the personal information users provide to us (e.g. email addresses) to reputable contributing firms such as law firms who author those pages. We do not sell or rent information to anyone else other than the authors of those pages, who may change from time to time. Should you wish us not to disclose your details to any of these parties, please tick the box above or tick the box marked "Opt out of Registration Information Disclosure" on the Your Profile page. We and our author organisations may only contact you via email or other means if you allow us to do so. Users can opt out of contact when they register on the site, or send an email to with “no disclosure” in the subject heading

Mondaq News Alerts

In order to receive Mondaq News Alerts, users have to complete a separate registration form. This is a personalised service where users choose regions and topics of interest and we send it only to those users who have requested it. Users can stop receiving these Alerts by going to the Mondaq News Alerts page and deselecting all interest areas. In the same way users can amend their personal preferences to add or remove subject areas.


A cookie is a small text file written to a user’s hard drive that contains an identifying user number. The cookies do not contain any personal information about users. We use the cookie so users do not have to log in every time they use the service and the cookie will automatically expire if you do not visit the Mondaq website (or its affiliate sites) for 12 months. We also use the cookie to personalise a user's experience of the site (for example to show information specific to a user's region). As the Mondaq sites are fully personalised and cookies are essential to its core technology the site will function unpredictably with browsers that do not support cookies - or where cookies are disabled (in these circumstances we advise you to attempt to locate the information you require elsewhere on the web). However if you are concerned about the presence of a Mondaq cookie on your machine you can also choose to expire the cookie immediately (remove it) by selecting the 'Log Off' menu option as the last thing you do when you use the site.

Some of our business partners may use cookies on our site (for example, advertisers). However, we have no access to or control over these cookies and we are not aware of any at present that do so.

Log Files

We use IP addresses to analyse trends, administer the site, track movement, and gather broad demographic information for aggregate use. IP addresses are not linked to personally identifiable information.


This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that Mondaq (or its affiliate sites) are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of these third party sites. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this Web site.

Surveys & Contests

From time-to-time our site requests information from users via surveys or contests. Participation in these surveys or contests is completely voluntary and the user therefore has a choice whether or not to disclose any information requested. Information requested may include contact information (such as name and delivery address), and demographic information (such as postcode, age level). Contact information will be used to notify the winners and award prizes. Survey information will be used for purposes of monitoring or improving the functionality of the site.


If a user elects to use our referral service for informing a friend about our site, we ask them for the friend’s name and email address. Mondaq stores this information and may contact the friend to invite them to register with Mondaq, but they will not be contacted more than once. The friend may contact Mondaq to request the removal of this information from our database.


This website takes every reasonable precaution to protect our users’ information. When users submit sensitive information via the website, your information is protected using firewalls and other security technology. If you have any questions about the security at our website, you can send an email to

Correcting/Updating Personal Information

If a user’s personally identifiable information changes (such as postcode), or if a user no longer desires our service, we will endeavour to provide a way to correct, update or remove that user’s personal data provided to us. This can usually be done at the “Your Profile” page or by sending an email to

Notification of Changes

If we decide to change our Terms & Conditions or Privacy Policy, we will post those changes on our site so our users are always aware of what information we collect, how we use it, and under what circumstances, if any, we disclose it. If at any point we decide to use personally identifiable information in a manner different from that stated at the time it was collected, we will notify users by way of an email. Users will have a choice as to whether or not we use their information in this different manner. We will use information in accordance with the privacy policy under which the information was collected.

How to contact Mondaq

You can contact us with comments or queries at

If for some reason you believe Mondaq Ltd. has not adhered to these principles, please notify us by e-mail at and we will use commercially reasonable efforts to determine and correct the problem promptly.