UK: Media Predictions - TMT Trends 2007 - Part Two

Last Updated: 18 January 2007
Article by Igal Brightman

Most Read Contributor in UK, August 2017
This article is part of a series: Click Media Predictions - TMT Trends 2007 - Part One for the previous article.

To read Part One of this article please Click Here

Analog apples and digital oranges

Headlines about new media’s near vertical rise abound. Analyses of the travails of old media are similarly plentiful. Yet terms of reference often differ and context is sadly lacking. This causes misunderstandings that are likely to linger throughout 2007.

The success of 2006’s new media darling, social networking, is often expressed in terms of daily downloads and unique viewers. Though the numbers are enormous, they are perhaps deceivingly impressive. YouTube, one of the largest social networking sites, has been positioned as a threat to the traditional television industry. YouTube’s users both upload and download, in far greater numbers than watch television, short videos that some regard as a directly comparable alternative. YouTube enjoys over 100 million downloads every day and boasts 70 million monthly unique users. During the course of 2007, these numbers may well rise, perhaps significantly.

So how does YouTube fare, when compared with one traditional television broadcaster, the BBC, in the context of one nation, the United Kingdom? BBC’s four terrestrial television stations now consider a prime-time, weekend audience of 10 million viewers, from a population of 60 million, a major success. But a television viewer is not directly comparable to a unique viewer on the Internet, and a television program is quite different to a video clip. The former is longer, and generally has higher production values. The average length of the 20 most viewed video clips to date on YouTube is a shade over three minutes; the overall limit is 10 minutes. A television program often lasts 30 minutes, sometimes more.

And if we compare total hours watched, a quite different picture emerges. The number of hours watched of the BBC’s television output in the United Kingdom alone, far outstrips that of YouTube globally, by a ratio of 10 to one. And that does not include the growing number of hours of BBC television watched over the Internet.

Bottom line

Media companies, advertisers and even telecommunications operators have been keen to tap into new media’s potential. In 2007 they should continue to do so, but ideally when informed by using only statistics that are directly comparable. Balanced, comparable statistics that clearly show the relative performance of all types of media, both old and new should ensure that investors’ expectations are properly managed, that advertisers’ budgets are appropriately allocated, and that acquisitions are accurately priced.

Any company considering new media applications should always consider the total addressable market. For new media that is likely to be limited initially by the number of broadband-connected PCs and mobile phones. While over a billion PCs are forecast to be in use in 2007, only a quarter are expected to be connected via broadband79. As for mobile, of over 2.1 billion mobile phones that are in use globally80, only 285 million are capable of handling new media content and services, and an even smaller percentage are actually used to access them81 82.

In contrast, penetration of television and radio is almost guaranteed to remain several orders of magnitude higher, both in 2007 and for several years to come83. In 2007, there should be some 1.7 billion televisions in use84, with sales running at over 160 million each year85, and more than 2.2 billion radio sets in use86.

Media’s never-ending quest for value

The public’s readiness to pay for content varies between geographic areas, changes over time and is influenced by a growing range of factors, from technology to disposable income. The challenge for media companies, in 2007 and beyond, is to second guess how the public’s perception of value may change, on a market-by-market and even segment-by-segment basis.

The television market’s many business models around the world are testament to the complexity of pricing. Historically the public’s quid pro quo relationship with broadcasters has been to accept a regulated dose of advertising in exchange for free television. That model still predominates for the mass market in many developing countries around the world.

However, as incomes rise, the demand for choice, exclusivity and quality, and the willingness to pay for this, increases accordingly. Thus in more affluent markets, subscription television is steadily replacing the pure advertising model.

The perfect balance of subscription and free-to-air television is hard to achieve. In fact in some markets, a few channels, which were launched on a subscription basis, have since converted to free-to-air, on the assumption that advertising can generate more revenue than subscriptions87. For some time slots, a few television channels have even opted for competition television, funded entirely by premiumrate call revenues. Competition television has no advertising, as this might cause viewers to switch to another channel.

Broadcasting the most popular television series for free can also promote high-value peripherals, from DVD box sets to magazines. Restricting these series to subscription channels, with smaller audiences, may limit the demand for licensed products associated with each program.

The public’s perception of where value lies is also highly variable in the music industry.

For example, music broadcast by radio stations has typically been free to the consumer. One of the historical benefits of this was to generate demand for albums and singles, particularly among the 16-24 age group88. However technology has changed buying behavior, in some markets to a profound extent. As a growing number of broadband-equipped households have the ability to download music illegally, at zero cost, the perceived value of all forms of music for this demographic has plummeted.

But music is still valued, albeit in other forms. For example the price of live performances, which are much harder to pirate, has risen above inflation, particularly for blockbuster acts89. The face value of tickets for the hottest acts has risen to over $30090, while the cost of an album has barely changed over the past 20 years. The mobilephone ringtone, another representation of music, has become a $5 billion global market91. Music is even generating value in the dental-care market, courtesy of the $10 MP3 toothbrush92.

In some markets where piracy is rife, pirated MP3 tracks may even encourage the sale of paid-for ringtones93, offsetting some of the losses from more traditional music formats. Similarly, music radio is also becoming more valuable to some consumers. Some markets have already shown a readiness to subscribe to specialist radio stations, and new markets are likely to experiment with subscription radio.

Thus, 2007 should see much experimentation with pricing for all types of media. Television programs that were broadcast free may become available for purchase via Internet downloads. Some companies may offer, via the Internet, to rent out music for free, in exchange for advertising. The scope for delivering value and charging for content should get far more complex, challenging and lucrative in 2007.

Bottom line

Determining price in the media sector appears especially challenging. Pricing strategies may need to be tailored to each market, by demographic or by income level, as the price that each of these segments is prepared to pay is driven by a growing array of factors.

Media companies should always bear in mind that one of the benefits of this fluidity is that a reduction in the price paid for one content format is likely to be balanced by an increase in another. A reduction in the price paid for news stories, due to the availability of instant news on the Internet, may drive an increased demand for news analysis, which is harder to commoditize. A public that refuses to pay for a piece of content online may often be happy to pay for exactly the same content when published, as a newspaper or a book.

No area of the media sector should consider itself immune to this variability in pricing. One of the fastest growing areas, search-driven advertising, may also be subject to variability in pricing. If search results become less meaningful because of advertisers being able to influence the order of results, some consumers may consider this too high a price to pay, and demand paid-for, objective search-engines.

However one historical constant should remain true in the longterm. Consumers are always likely to gravitate to, and be willing to pay for, the best quality content, in whatever form it may be available.

15 Megabytes of fame; one gigabyte of privacy

Social networking, an online service that allows people from all over the world to meet in cyberspace and share views, experiences, knowledge and content, such as photographs and videos, has been one of the success stories of 2006. Its impact has spanned the consumer market, the business world and the entire technology sector.

Transformed from a niche activity for the technologically inclined into an increasingly popular and pervasive leisure pursuit, social networking is currently on a pedestal. If it is to stay there, it will need to show a sustainable business model that can appeal to consumers and advertisers with limited budgets94.

While awareness of social networking is widespread, use actually remains relatively low by comparison to other media. Users in the United States typically spend less than half-an-hour per month visiting social networking sites95. In contrast, the average North American spends four-and-a-half hours watching television each day96.

Social networking’s appeal has been stronger among younger demographic groups, particularly the 15-30s, many looking for their moment in the limelight, courtesy of their 15 megabytes of selfexpression available for all to view on the Web. The activity has generally been less popular among older age groups. Indeed it may not appeal to this sector in its present form in 200797. While younger people generally opt for the broadest possible circle of friends, older people tend to be more guarded.

Indeed privacy typically commands a premium that may rise with age. Thus the private garden is preferred to the public park; the secluded beach commands a higher price than a resort; the private dining room incurs a higher bill than the open-plan section of the restaurant.

So far social networks have rarely charged their members. This is perhaps because the typical user, being relatively young, is averse to subscriptions. But social networks, in offering privacy, have a good chance of collecting a fee from the less attention-hungry, typically older and wealthier, mass market.

Proud parents enjoy distributing photographs of their children to friends and family via the Internet. But they might feel more at ease if they knew exactly who was viewing those pictures. Friends may want to share videos of wedding, including entertaining but indecorous escapades. But they may be prepared to pay to ensure that only their intimate circle, not prospective employers or existing peers, can see their uninhibited moments98 99.

Indeed over our lifetimes, even those who frequently indulge in social networking today, may well value privacy over publicity, in both digital and physical domains.

Bottom line

Social networking companies should move rapidly to expand both the appeal and the revenue-generating capacity of their services. Advertising revenues may not suffice, not least because more established media are likely to continue to perform well, and attract the lion’s share of advertising dollars100. Moreover, advertisers are unlikely to be keen to associate their brands with the often questionable contents of unmoderated social networking sites, and some users may not care to have their social experience tainted by adjacent advertising messages.

As a result, subscription revenues may well have to become an increasingly important part of the revenue mix. Social networking companies should examine how such revenues can be generated, and from whom. While monetizing virtual social experiences may prove challenging, because they are essentially free in the real world, monetizing privacy may not.

Premium subscriptions, in addition to the guarantee of privacy, could also offer a range of value-added services, from voice messaging to group chat, from online storage to webpage design. As premium users are likely to be older and less technologically literate, technical support may also be in demand, ideally on a paying basis.

Social networking sites should also consider their services within the context of established and mature social groupings. Families, professionals, scientists and other tight-knit communities may have the most advanced social networking needs, and a greater-than-average propensity to pay for secure services that bring the benefits of the digital age to the process of social interaction.

Video-on-demand may leave you waiting

2007 should see substantial growth in the number of movies that are made available simultaneously on DVD in the shops and for download via VOD over the Internet to PCs. VOD’s allure is that it has the potential to exploit the 21st-Century consumer’s passion for instant gratification.

VOD has had a chequered history. Just over 10 years ago, there were more than 50 VOD trials around the world, some of which were based on what was then regarded as a scorchingly fast two Mbit/s101. Almost all of these trials were eventually canceled. But some ideas never die, they just get reinvented, reinvigorated and relaunched. Today, VOD to PCs is being offered by a growing number of companies, with two approaches: downloads and streaming.

Whereas streaming video appears to be working well, video downloads may encounter some challenges in 2007, particularly when downloaded to PCs. The key issue is most likely to relate to the meaning of ‘on-demand’. In 2007, on a typical two Mbit/s DSL network, it can take one minute to download each minute of a movie102. Thus a three-hour thriller may take 180 minutes or more to arrive (see Figure 1). A high-definition video, on a one Mbit/s DSL connection could take the best part of a whole day to download. There may then be further delay as the PC writes the movie file to the hard drive. Even when this process is complete, the movie may still be unwatchable unless the DRM key arrives with the movie. If not, there is another potential delay.

Download speeds would of course be faster with a higher speed broadband connection. Around the world, 24 Mbit/s DSL connections are now available, but attaining this speed tends only to be possible for those fortunate enough to be living close to the local telephone exchange103. So this searing rate, and absolutely on-demand service, may remain an aspiration rather than a reality for the vast majority of consumers in 2007.

In addition, it is likely that in 2007 there will be a rise in the use of a number of Internet-based applications, from VoIP to email to massive, multimedia, online games. If several of these services are used simultaneously within a household, video download speeds could collapse104.

Thus in 2007, it may be the case that for DSL subscribers wanting instant access to blockbusters, a swift walk to the local store may be the most immediate route to satisfaction.

Bottom line

Media companies should consider VOD to PCs as one of a growing number of distribution channels. It is not be heralded as a panacea. The available market that could receive VOD, to any device, remains relatively small. While there were an estimated 285 million consumer broadband connections in the world by the end of 2006,105 only 14 million were regarded as fast enough to support high-quality VOD106.

Companies should also recognize that while the concept of VOD is likely to appeal in general, the majority of consumers may not need their supply to be instant on every occasion. The success of relatively slow video delivery solutions, such as rental by post, most famously Netflix, or purchase, most ubiquitously Amazon, suggest that consumers are quite prepared to wait before they watch107.

VOD’s success as a channel is likely to depend on its differentiation and its core advantage may not be its eventual ability to deliver content instantly. VOD may be best deployed for non-blockbuster content that video rental stores and retail outlets do not stock due to limited demand. VOD’s optimal role may be the merchandising and distribution of back-catalog and more esoteric content, accessible via powerful search tools and marketed via a combination of customer rankings, purchasing history and archivists’ suggestions. VOD’s appeal could be bolstered by features such as conferring free ownership of a title once it has been downloaded more than three times.

Thus in the long-term, VOD’s main competitive advantage may be far more than its ability to deliver content fast. And its main commercial benefit impact is likely to be felt in the value of the back catalog.

Virtuanomics

Real economies are emerging within digital online fantasy worlds. The largest virtual worlds, such as Second Life, collectively host millions of citizens, some spending many hours every day living their virtual lives108.

Some aspects of these virtual worlds increasingly mirror real life, such as value creation, trade and even labor offshoring. Low-income workers in developing countries manufacture digital artefacts for sale, such as virtual clothing and weapons, to time-constrained players in the developed world. But other aspects still differ markedly from reality, such as the ability to fly unaided and the absence of any form of taxation.

The real-world value of transactions taking place in virtual worlds is rising steadily, and is likely to continue growing through 2007. One estimate of the value of commerce in Second Life is of $265,000 per day, and it is estimated that average turnover is rising by up to 15 percent per month. If these trends were to continue, Second Life’s overall GDP could be close to $700 million in 2007. One analysis has suggested that Second Life’s economic impact is equivalent to that of the South African nation of Namibia109, whose GDP is $14 billion.

Another virtual world, Project Entropia, has generated turnover of around $160 million a year110 and one property alone in this virtual reality was sold for $100,000 of real money111. Members of this virtual world are able to withdraw cash from their virtual bank accounts via real-world cash machines.

A small handful of individuals are able to make a healthy living from virtual worlds. But for the vast majority, particularly those in developing countries, virtual worlds are likely to remain little more than a recreational activity throughout 2007. At the moment, turnover per person in virtual worlds averages under a dollar per day. If virtual worlds’ economies were to grow by 10 percent per month, annual GDP by the end of 2007 would still be under $700 per annum.

Bottom line

Virtual fantasy worlds have become a serious business in their own right. Consequently they are now attracting the interests of advertisers and even media companies112.

There is a steady blurring of the line between fantasy and reality, which is leading real people to spend real money on entirely virtual goods and services, and real companies promoting or even offering virtual versions of their products for real money113. Clearly, at some point, the value of this trade may, based on recent growth, become large enough to also attract the attention of tax authorities.

However a sense of perspective is required.

The total available market for such fantasy games may be limited; only a small number of people want to, or have the time to, spend the majority of their spare time playing video games114. The leading online games may well be able to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenues from subscriptions. However, the number of individuals with the desire and means to spend $15 per month, 50 hours a month and $500 a year on their alternative life may be limited, and they have probably already subscribed. It may simply not be worth the while of tax authorities to identify transactions, some of which may be covert, particularly when crossing borders. Even if the real world value of virtual economies were to reach $1 billion in 2007, this would still pale in comparison to global GDP, forecast at $47 trillion in 2007115.

Governments may wish to focus more on identifying any attempts to exploit the mechanisms of virtual economies to undertake criminal activity. Money launderers may use trade in digital artefacts or the ability to withdraw cash from an ATM as a means of money laundering.

Glossary of technical Terms

3G - Third generation mobile network
ATM - Automated Teller Machine
CRM - Customer Relationship Management
DRM - Digital Rights Management
DSL - Digital Subscriber Line
DTV - Digital Television
GSM - General System for Mobile
HD - High Definition
IPTV - Internet Protocol Television
MMS - Multimedia Messaging Service
SD - Standard Definition
SMS - Short Message Service
TMT - Technology, Media and Telecommunications
VOD - Video-on-Demand
VoIP - Voice-over-Internet Protocol

About TMT

The Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (DTT) Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry Group consists of the TMT practices organized in the various member firms of DTT and includes more than 5,000 member firm partners, directors and senior managers supported by thousands of other professionals dedicated to helping their clients evaluate complex issues, develop fresh approaches to problems and implement practical solutions. There are dedicated TMT member firm practices in 45 countries and centers of excellence in the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific. DTT’s member firms serve over 90 percent of the TMT companies in the Fortune Global 500. Clients of Deloitte’s member firms’ TMT practices include some of the world’s top software companies, computer manufacturers, wireless operators, satellite broadcasters, advertising agencies and semiconductor foundries – as well as leaders in publishing, telecommunications and peripheral equipment manufacturing.

Footnotes

1 See: http://www.technorati.com/about/

2 The net benefit of digital publishing, Association of Online Publishers, 7 July 2006

3 The wayward press – Amateur Hour, The New Yorker, 7 July 2006

4 Web content by and for the masses, New York Times, 29 June 2005

5 See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm

6 See: http://www.technorati.com/about/

7 Thousands blog for a living, Dow Jones Market Watch, 8 November 2006

8 See: www.ohmynews.com

9 Are we all citizen journalists? BBC Newswatch, 16 January 2006

10 YouTube dances the copyright tango, CNET News, 24 July 2006

11 The net benefit of digital publishing, Association of Online Publishers, 7 July 2006

12 See: interview with Josh Auerbach, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

13 MTV gives audience control over channel with Flux, Brand Republic Media Bulletin, 25 July 2006

14 Click your mouse say yeah, The Guardian, 11 November 2005

15 Second Life Rocks (Literally), Wired, 15 August 2006

16 See: interview with Yoshiharu Kasama, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

17 See: interview with Frank Volmer, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

18 See: interview with Michael Garin, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

19 For example, across the 22 countries in which the Pop Idol franchise has been broadcast, it is estimated that one billion viewers were attracted, and 680 million votes were cast by SMS or telephone call. See – Pop Idol: The fake plastic trees of reality TV of participatory democracy in close-up?, SMLXL, 1 October 2006

20 Conversation with a UK television executive, September 2006

21 See: http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/participationtv/

22 TV ad spending set to peak in 2006, CNN, 18 April 2005

23 US television companies have recently started to charge premium rates for audience participation after carriers and broadcasters agreed on industry wide best practice guidelines, see: Television’s New Joy Of Text ,Wall Street Journal, 20 July 2006

24 Ibid

25 Similarly, in 2005, SMS voting in France alone generated revenues of $126 million. See – http://www.textually.org/textually/archives/2006/10/013693.htm

26 Pay Day for Call TV, Royal Television Society, June 2006 (Volume 43/issue 6)

27 Comments from Ashley Faull, Founding Director of Sit-Up Television at RTS Conference, London, September 2006. Also see Liberty Interactive, Jefferies & Co, 18 May 2006, and Liberty Media, JP Morgan, 9 May 2006

28 Text-to-speech, Broadband TV News / Participation TV Trends, September 2005

29 Viewers of the reality television show "Die Burg" on German television channel ProSieben are able to send in picture messages and see themselves on screen. The price for this service is €0.99 ($1.30) per picture message.

30 Transaction TV, Broadband TV News/Participation TV Trends, September 2005

31 Fastest fingers rake in millions, Financial Express on Sunday, 5 November 2006

32 What happens next? – You decide, as Channel 4 launches interactive drama, 27 September 2005

33 Participation TV May Be A Gamble, The Guardian, 14 August 2006.

34 Present at the Stagnation, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006

35 China’s media sector comprises multiple sub-sectors, from music to magazines to mobile ringtones. DTT plans to publish a wider analysis of China’s media market in the first half of 2007. Please see www.deloitte.com/tmt for updates.

36 At year-end 2006, the population of China was estimated to be 1.3 billion, according to the China Population Information and Research Center. See – http://www.cpirc.org.cn/en/eindex.htm

37 World Bank sees China 2006 GDP growth at 10.4 percent, outlook favorable, Forbes, 13 November 2006

38 See: http://www.cpirc.org.cn/en/eindex.htm

39 China: a troubled dragon, Znet, 16 May 2006

40 As of September 2006, there were 123 million Internet users in China, representing a population penetration of just 9.4 percent. See – http://www.internetworldstats.com/ stats3.htm#asia

41 China Puts Stricter Limits on Distribution of Foreign News, The New York Times, 11 September 2006

42 In China, the piracy rate for sound recordings is 85 percent, representing a loss to the music industry of $204 million in 2005, see: IIPA 2006 Special 301 report (www.iipa.com)

43 China, India will drive media growth in 2010, The Financial Express, 4 July 2006

44 Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2005-2009 Global Overview, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, 22 June 2005

45 China opens up to media hordes for Olympics, Variety, 5 November 2006

46 Beijing Olympic Broadcasting busy building teams, People’s Daily Online, 21 July 2006

47 Chinese entrepreneur downplays censorship problem in China, MediaShift, 30 May 2006

48 Foreign media in China may face new limits, Taipei Times, 5 July 2006

49 China Debuts National Digital TV Transmission Standard, TMCnet, 12 November 2006

50 Radio and TV Information, March 2006 (a magazine published under SARFT) See PROC Ministry of Commerce website – http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/ counselorsreport/americaandoceanreport/200603/20060301740506.html. See also http://www.rti.cn/

51 McCann shifts focus to Chinese brands, Financial Times, 20 September 2006

52 Turning the page – the net benefit of digital publishing, Deloitte & Touche LLP, June 2006

53 Internet advertising revenues surpass $4 billion in Q3, Internet Ad Sales, 14 November 2006

54 The battle for classified ads, The Epoch Times, 13 June 2006

55 The vanishing newspaper, Philip Meyer, ISBN 0-8262-1561-0, 2004

56 World Press Trends: Newspaper Circulation, Advertising Increases, World Association of Newspapers, 5 June 2006

57 Global annual consumer magazine sales up 7.4 percent, Association of Publishing Agencies, 4 July 2006

58 Books a $35 billion Industry, Reports BISG, The Book Standard, 19 May 2006

59 Who killed the newspaper? The Economist, 24 August 2006

60 To Reverse Circ Plunge: Give Readers What They Want, Editor and Publisher, 20 November 2006

61 In the future, will all newspapers be free? BBC News, 4 September 2006

62 To Reverse Circ Plunge: Give Readers What They Want, Editor and Publisher, 20 November 2006

63 Global broadband subscribers grows to over 221 million, Techplanet Asia, 26 May 2006

64 See: interview with Rich Karlgaard, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

65 An Online Rescue for Newpapers?, Poynter Online, 27 January 2005

66 The Revenue Tipping Point, Folio, 30 June 2006

67 See: interview with Frank Volmer, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

68 To Reverse Circ Plunge: Give Readers What They Want, Editor and Publisher, 20 November 2006

69 The battle for classified ads, The Epoch Times, 13 June 2006

70 Yahoo! to share classified ads with US local newspapers, The Guardian, 21 November 2006

71 The battle for classified ads, The Epoch Times, 13 June 2006

72 Blogs: The secret is out, Newsweek, 30 January 2006

73 http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html

74 A musical tail of hits and misses, The Guardian, 17 August 2006

75 See: http://www.netflixprize.com/ for details of a competition with a million dollar prize, whose aim is to "substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much somebody is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences"

76 Musiwave, a French downloaded-music provider, notes that over 90 percent of all full-track downloads sold on its network are of just 400 songs. Around 80 percent of tracks sold are of just 10 to 15 songs, typically tracks listed on the operator’s portal. In other words, the market for over-the-air mobile downloads is hits driven – there is no space for the long tail. Mobile music: limited shelf space = limited shelf life, MusicAlly, 24 August 2006.

77 See: interview with Yoshiharu Kasama, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

78 Social search engines replace computer results with human recommendations, USA Today, 7 September 2006

79 Worldwide Online Access 2004-2010, eMarketer, June 2006

80 GSM Association. See http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml

81 3G Subscriptions to Reach 285 Million by End of Year, TMCnet, 6 September 2006

82 Where Are All the Mobile Internet Users? eMarketer, 24 August 2006

83 UK Web usage overtakes TV viewing, Lovelace Consulting, 8 March 2006

84 Small Screen, Smaller World, Yale Global, 11 October 2002

85 On Display, iSuppli Corporation, Volume 2, Issue 4, 2005

86 The Statesman’s Yearbook, Palgrave Macmillan, 2001

87 For more information, see: http://www.dtg.org.uk/news/news.php?id=1781

88 See: interview with David Pakman, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

89 Winners take all in Rockonomics, BBC News, 20 April 2006

90 Ibid

91 See: interview with Andrea Casalini, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

92 For more information, see: http://www.hasbro.com/toothtunes/

93 For more discussion on the ringing tone market in developing markets, see: Will Digital Music in China Overthrow the Traditional Music Publishing Business?, Knowledge @ Wharton, 23 June 2006

94 Hanging with the in-crowd, The Economist, 14 September 2006

95 The Score – Social Networking Sites, comScore Media Metrix, 19 October 2006

96 Average home has more TVs than people, USA Today, 21 September 2006

97 Go on My Sun, says News Corp, The Guardian, 16 March 2006

98 Yearning for privacy begins to take hold in cyberspace, Financial Times, 26 October 2006

99 A privacy paradox: social networking in the United States, First Monday, Volume 11, Number 9, September 2006

100 Entertainment and Media Industry expected to grow 6.3 percent annually through 2008, DMeurope, 8 July 2004. (Note: television advertising is expected to dominate total advertising spend until beyond the end of the decade; by the same time, online advertising is expected to reach only 10 percent of the global total).

101 Interactive Television, The Market Opportunity, Ovum, 1994 (main report) and 1995 (quarterly updates)

102 Download speed also depends on the rate offered by the VOD company’s servers. Typically bit rates range from 700 to 2500 Kbp/s. Bit rate varies by the load on the company’s servers. Also see: http://www.becta.org.uk/corporate/publications/ documents/Emerging_Technologies.pdf, page 50.

103 Typically, 24 Mbit/s is available only to those customers living within 300 meters of the local exchange. At maximum range of ADSL2+, which is roughly 3.5 kilometers, the downstream capacity is around 4 Mbit/s. For further information, see – http://www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/wp6321.pdf

104 See: interview with Jean Pierre Vandromme, Convergence Conversations, DTT, November 2006

105 TeleGeography Reports Global Broadband Subscribers Now Over 221 Million, TMC NET, 25 May 2006

106 IPTV – The Global Picture, eMarketer, September 2006. Based on the assumption that a broadband connection of two Mbit/s is required for a reliable VOD service.

107 Netflix shows the mail can feel faster than a download, Mercury News, 29 October 2006

108 Virtual taxes will become a reality, Financial Times, 20 October 2006

109 See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/3570224.stm

110 See: http://www.entropiauniverse.com/en/rich/5000.html

112 The real-life right to virtual property, Financial Times, 29 October 2006

113 Reuters opens virtual news bureau in Second Life, ZD Net, 16 October 2006

114 See: http://www.slboutique.com/index.php?p=buy&itemid=125694

115 The Mythical 40-Hour Gamer, Wired, 25 September 2006

116 Global stock markets headed higher, Cumberland Advisors, 29 January 2006

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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This article is part of a series: Click Media Predictions - TMT Trends 2007 - Part One for the previous article.
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You may use the Website but are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the content and articles available (the Content). You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these terms & conditions or with the prior written consent of Mondaq Ltd. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information about Mondaq.com’s content, users or contributors in order to offer them any services or products which compete directly or indirectly with Mondaq Ltd’s services and products.

Disclaimer

Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published on this server for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from this server.

The documents and related graphics published on this server could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time.

Registration

Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including what sort of information you are interested in, for three primary purposes:

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, newsletter alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our information providers who provide information free for your use.

Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) do not sell or provide your details to third parties other than information providers. The reason we provide our information providers with this information is so that they can measure the response their articles are receiving and provide you with information about their products and services.

If you do not want us to provide your name and email address you may opt out by clicking here .

If you do not wish to receive any future announcements of products and services offered by Mondaq by clicking here .

Information Collection and Use

We require site users to register with Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to view the free information on the site. We also collect information from our users at several different points on the websites: this is so that we can customise the sites according to individual usage, provide 'session-aware' functionality, and ensure that content is acquired and developed appropriately. This gives us an overall picture of our user profiles, which in turn shows to our Editorial Contributors the type of person they are reaching by posting articles on Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) – meaning more free content for registered users.

We are only able to provide the material on the Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) site free to site visitors because we can pass on information about the pages that users are viewing and the personal information users provide to us (e.g. email addresses) to reputable contributing firms such as law firms who author those pages. We do not sell or rent information to anyone else other than the authors of those pages, who may change from time to time. Should you wish us not to disclose your details to any of these parties, please tick the box above or tick the box marked "Opt out of Registration Information Disclosure" on the Your Profile page. We and our author organisations may only contact you via email or other means if you allow us to do so. Users can opt out of contact when they register on the site, or send an email to unsubscribe@mondaq.com with “no disclosure” in the subject heading

Mondaq News Alerts

In order to receive Mondaq News Alerts, users have to complete a separate registration form. This is a personalised service where users choose regions and topics of interest and we send it only to those users who have requested it. Users can stop receiving these Alerts by going to the Mondaq News Alerts page and deselecting all interest areas. In the same way users can amend their personal preferences to add or remove subject areas.

Cookies

A cookie is a small text file written to a user’s hard drive that contains an identifying user number. The cookies do not contain any personal information about users. We use the cookie so users do not have to log in every time they use the service and the cookie will automatically expire if you do not visit the Mondaq website (or its affiliate sites) for 12 months. We also use the cookie to personalise a user's experience of the site (for example to show information specific to a user's region). As the Mondaq sites are fully personalised and cookies are essential to its core technology the site will function unpredictably with browsers that do not support cookies - or where cookies are disabled (in these circumstances we advise you to attempt to locate the information you require elsewhere on the web). However if you are concerned about the presence of a Mondaq cookie on your machine you can also choose to expire the cookie immediately (remove it) by selecting the 'Log Off' menu option as the last thing you do when you use the site.

Some of our business partners may use cookies on our site (for example, advertisers). However, we have no access to or control over these cookies and we are not aware of any at present that do so.

Log Files

We use IP addresses to analyse trends, administer the site, track movement, and gather broad demographic information for aggregate use. IP addresses are not linked to personally identifiable information.

Links

This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that Mondaq (or its affiliate sites) are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of these third party sites. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this Web site.

Surveys & Contests

From time-to-time our site requests information from users via surveys or contests. Participation in these surveys or contests is completely voluntary and the user therefore has a choice whether or not to disclose any information requested. Information requested may include contact information (such as name and delivery address), and demographic information (such as postcode, age level). Contact information will be used to notify the winners and award prizes. Survey information will be used for purposes of monitoring or improving the functionality of the site.

Mail-A-Friend

If a user elects to use our referral service for informing a friend about our site, we ask them for the friend’s name and email address. Mondaq stores this information and may contact the friend to invite them to register with Mondaq, but they will not be contacted more than once. The friend may contact Mondaq to request the removal of this information from our database.

Security

This website takes every reasonable precaution to protect our users’ information. When users submit sensitive information via the website, your information is protected using firewalls and other security technology. If you have any questions about the security at our website, you can send an email to webmaster@mondaq.com.

Correcting/Updating Personal Information

If a user’s personally identifiable information changes (such as postcode), or if a user no longer desires our service, we will endeavour to provide a way to correct, update or remove that user’s personal data provided to us. This can usually be done at the “Your Profile” page or by sending an email to EditorialAdvisor@mondaq.com.

Notification of Changes

If we decide to change our Terms & Conditions or Privacy Policy, we will post those changes on our site so our users are always aware of what information we collect, how we use it, and under what circumstances, if any, we disclose it. If at any point we decide to use personally identifiable information in a manner different from that stated at the time it was collected, we will notify users by way of an email. Users will have a choice as to whether or not we use their information in this different manner. We will use information in accordance with the privacy policy under which the information was collected.

How to contact Mondaq

You can contact us with comments or queries at enquiries@mondaq.com.

If for some reason you believe Mondaq Ltd. has not adhered to these principles, please notify us by e-mail at problems@mondaq.com and we will use commercially reasonable efforts to determine and correct the problem promptly.