In 2014 Vince Cable announced a £10m government fund
available for trials of driverless cars on public roads,
commencing on 1st January 2015. Further, in May 2012, Nevada
granted its first license to Google's 'Self-Driving
Car'. Impressively, by the end of FY14 the car had driven
700,000 miles without a single accident. Meanwhile, other countries
have unveiled other plans to road test either state or privately
owned AVs (Automated Vehicles) – for example Italy, Japan,
Singapore and Sweden. Nissan and Volvo have announced that
partial AVs will be in production by 2020, with full autonomy to
follow. Tesla Motors has gone one
step further, announcing that by 2016 they will be selling a
vehicle that is 90% automated. However, the industry has a long
way to go, with many serious problems to face before the widespread
manufacture of the first automated vehicle.
The main benefits of automated transport are convenience,
efficiency and safety. It is argued that the concept of
'platooning', where cars drive closer to each other with no
increased risk, will allow a shorter journey time even considering
lower speeds, boosting economic productivity and growth. A 2013 study by Morgan
Stanley puts the economic gains in the US at a base case of
$1.3 trillion a year in savings if AVs were adopted. Safety-wise,
the ENO centre for transportation predicted in 2013 that with a 90%
adoption rate of AVs, we would see 4.22 million fewer crashes and
21,700 lives saved. The report further states that the steadier
speed will reduce emissions – a 20% reduction in acceleration
variation will reduce emissions by 5%.
However, there is some way to go before driverless vehicles hit the
mass market. They must integrate with traffic management systems,
traffic lights, mapping software, parking spaces, pedestrians,
cyclists and most importantly, other vehicles – this planning
requires huge oversight and is a formidable task. Much of the
required technology revolves around system interconnectivity
– a common language
needs to be developed so that these systems can interface with each
other both safely and efficiently. Moreover, hardware costs
remain high– a quality LIDAR (light detection and ranging)
system costs between $30,000 and
$85,000. Therefore, until total costs fall, demand and
enthusiasm will be muted.
Furthermore, the necessary legislative due process for AV take up
is substantial. In 2014 Lloyds of
London suggested that the insurance risk would transfer
from the consumer (currently responsible for 93% of crashes) to the
manufacturer of the car, systems or infrastructure (depending on
who is at fault). This large shift would undoubtedly translate to
high industry resistance. Along the same lines, Governments would
have a major facilitation role to play - this type of new
legislation will need substantial national/international agreement
to prevent delays and lawsuits. Software firms will equally need to
beware of the substantial cyber threat – any security breach
to remotely influence the speed or direction of AVs would be
catastrophic. These threats will inevitably slow the progress of
the development of AVs.
In conclusion, whilst the benefits of fully functioning AVs are
clear, there are many hurdles to the process which need to be taken
seriously. Namely, these include cyber security, legislative,
environmental, design, financial, governmental, infrastructure,
insurance and licensing issues. This will mean that before 2020 we
are very unlikely to see any driverless cars in public bar small,
select trials. The road to a driverless future is sure to be long
and windy.
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