The quarterly change in the All Property Rent Index, of 0.7 percentage points, is the lowest since 1995. However, the Equity Dividend Index fell (-0.9%) for the first time since 1993. The Office sector's relatively strong recent growth produced a higher rental value annual increase (8%) than Equity Dividend growth (7.8%), which has not occurred since 1993.
At 0.5%, the Retail sector's quarterly rental value growth is the lowest since 1995. However, five-year rental value growth is positive for the first time since 1994. Polarisation is continuing in the market as growth is concentrated in London and the South East. Indeed, Central London's quarterly increase (4.6%) was marginally higher than the previous seven-year high seen in November. Scotland was static over the quarter after November's five-year high. East Anglia was unchanged after relatively strong growth in the previous two surveys, though it still produced the highest regional annual change.
Office quarterly growth (1.2%) fell back on November's figure, though the annual change remained the same (8%), which is a six-year high. The West End's recent growth is strong enough to have produced its first positive five-year figure since 1993. There is a relative absence of growth over the quarter, outside London and the South East. Scotland again runs counter to the trend registering decreases in rental value over the quarter.
Quarterly growth in Industrial rents (0.2%) is the lowest for four quarters. As in other sectors, geographical concentration of growth is occurring as it is confined to the southern areas. East Anglia was alone in registering a fall (3%) over the quarter.
There has been a reappraisal of historic data. The areas affected are Offices: Suburban London (Nov 96) and West Midlands (Nov 96).
Rent Index - Current Prices
% Change
Qtr Annual pa
Aug 96 Nov 96 Feb 97 Nov 96 Feb 96 Feb 92
-Feb 97 -Feb 97 - Feb 97
All Property 420 424 427 0.7 4.8 -0.8
Shops 574 580 583 0.5 3.3 0.1
Offices 336 342 346 1.2 8.0 -1.0
Industrials 344 345 346 0.2 1.6 -1.4
Equity
Dividend 709 725 719 -0.9 7.8 7.2
Rent Index - Real Terms
% Change
Qtr Annual pa
Aug 96 Nov 96 Feb 97 Nov 96 Feb 96 Feb 92
-Feb 97 -Feb 97 - Feb 97
All Property 126 127 127 0.2 2.3 -3.2
Shops 173 174 174 0.0 0.9 -2.4
Offices 101 103 103 0.7 5.5 -3.5
Industrials 104 103 103 -0.3 -1.2 -3.9
Equity
Dividend 213 217 214 -1.4 4.7 4.5
Rent Index - Regional
Aug 96 Nov 96 Feb 97
All Shops 574 580 583
Central
London 576 601 629
Inner
Suburban
London 481 486 490
Outer
Suburban
London 512 518 519
Suburban
London 500 505 507
London 542 555 568
South East 581 582 583
South West 563 563 564
East Anglia 744 758 758
East
Midlands 462 464 467
West
Midlands 725 727 727
Wales 741 742 742
North West 576 577 581
Yorks &
Humber 489 491 493
North 582 586 586
Scotland 527 544 544
All Offices 336 342 346
West End 467 482 493
Holborn &
Marylebone 358 365 375
Central City 305 310 314
Fringe City 289 301 305
Central
London 359 368 374
Suburban
London 303 307 310
London 340 348 353
South East 342 346 350
South West 611 611 611
East Anglia 316 320 320
East
Midlands 363 365 365
West
Midlands 705 718 718
Wales 435 443 443
North
West 460 461 464
Yorks &
Humber 372 372 376
North 269 269 269
Scotland 429 428 427
All
Industrials 344 345 346
London 371 371 373
South East 406 410 410
South West 400 400 407
East
Anglia 369 369 357
East
Midlands 379 375 375
West
Midlands 357 357 357
Wales 321 321 321
North West 315 315 315
Yorks &
Humber 263 264 264
North 253 253 253
Scotland 292 293 293
% Change
Qtr Qtr Annual p.a.
Aug 96- Nov 96- Feb96 - Feb 92
Nov 96 Feb 97 Feb 97 Feb 97
All Shops 0.9 0.5 3.3 0.1
Central
London 4.4 4.6 12.7 5.9
Inner
Suburban
London 0.9 0.9 3.6 -0.1
Outer
Suburban
London 1.0 0.2 3.0 -1.1
Suburban
London 1.0 0.4 3.3 -0.8
London 2.5 2.3 7.5 2.0
South East 0.1 0.2 2.0 -1.2
South West 0.0 0.2 1.5 -0.3
East Anglia 2.0 0.0 5.8 0.7
East
Midlands 0.4 0.8 2.7 -1.0
West
Midlands 0.2 0.0 2.6 -0.6
Wales 0.2 0.0 1.2 -0.4
North West 0.1 0.8 3.6 2.3
Yorks &
Humber 0.4 0.6 3.5 -0.2
North 0.7 0.0 1.7 1.1
Scotland 3.1 0.0 4.5 2.6
All Offices 1.8 1.2 8.0 -1.0
West End 3.1 2.2 13.4 0.7
Holborn &
Marylebone 1.8 2.7 14.9 -2.2
Central City 1.7 1.2 14.5 -0.6
Fringe City 4.3 1.1 6.9 -4.3
Central
London 2.6 1.7 13.1 -0.8
Suburban
London 1.2 1.1 5.2 -1.7
London 2.3 1.6 11.5 -1.0
South East 1.3 1.1 4.5 -1.2
South West 0.0 0.0 2.6 -2.1
East Anglia 1.2 0.0 1.2 -3.7
East
Midlands 0.6 0.0 0.6 -0.5
West
Midlands 1.8 0.0 1.8 -1.4
Wales 1.7 0.0 6.2 0.2
North
West 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.7
Yorks &
Humber 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4
North 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
Scotland -0.2 -0.2 -5.9 -1.3
All
Industrials 0.3 0.2 1.6 -1.4
London 0.0 0.6 1.2 -2.2
South East 0.9 0.1 2.6 -1.9
South West 0.0 1.8 2.7 -0.7
East
Anglia 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.9
East
Midlands -1.3 0.0 0.2 -1.2
West
Midlands 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8
Wales 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.2
North West 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -1.1
Yorks &
Humber 0.5 0.0 3.9 -0.4
North 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Scotland 0.2 0.0 -0.3 4.3
For further information, contact: Alan Patterson, Head of Investment Research, Tel: +44 (0) 171 629 7666, Fax: +44 (0) 171 409 3016
