A major uncertainty facing global CFOs — the outcome of the November elections in the United States — may be resolved. But that was not the case when CFOs were filling out their third-quarter CFO surveys. And given the number of other risks companies face as 2012 heads to a close, it may have not made a dent in their outlooks.
That list of uncertainties remains long
The on-going eurozone debt crisis and the possibility of a breakup, the fiscal cliff drama in the U.S., the slowdowns in China and Germany, and the unsuccessful efforts by some individual countries to stem the fallout are just a few of the macro issues CFOs face. Little wonder many CFOs around the globe still feel insecure about the future and wary of capital investment, M&A, and hiring.
In fact, in this issue of Global CFO Signals, which features surveys from 14 geographies, there are only a few countries — including Austria, Ireland, and Netherlands — reporting solid CFO optimism about their own companies' prospects. In others, the drop is dramatic. In Germany, for example, only 21% of CFOs report greater optimism, while 34% are pessimistic. Only six months ago, the percentage of optimists outweighed that of pessimists 28% to 16%. And in the U.S., net optimism (the percentage of CFOs citing rising optimism less the percentage citing falling optimism) fell to -16 this quarter.
A depressed outlook for some
Not surprisingly, CFOs' outlooks are often tied to their views of their own country's prospects. In Belgium, for example, where CFO optimism remains depressed, finance executives do not see their economy returning to growth until 2014. More than half of Austrian CFOs foresee a further deterioration in that economy.
And in the newest country producing a survey – France – CFOs are actually starting out with low expectations: 56% say they are pessimistic about the French economy. This uncertainty and lack of optimism may be hindering growth. UK CFOs believe an unpredictable economic and financial environment is the biggest factor constraining investment.
Long gone are the days of spend, spend, spend
Given a choice, Swedish CFOs would rather pay down debt than make strategic or financial investments (although they are anticipating a higher level of M&A in the next 12 months). And CFOs continue to emphasize cost cutting: almost 90% of Swiss CFOs, for example, said cost reduction was their number one priority.
Not surprisingly, there are striking regional differences. In North America, Mexico and Canada continue to report higher optimism than the U.S. In Europe, CFOs in countries such as Norway remain positive despite the noise around them. And interestingly in Asia Pacific, Australian sentiment has broadly converged with UK and North America, a situation that has not often occurred before.
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