UK: Deloitte Telecommunications Predictions – 2011

Last Updated: 20 January 2011
Article by Deloitte Technology, Media & Telecommunications Industry Group

Most Read Contributor in UK, August 2017

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Getting to 4G Cheaply: Will Many Carriers Opt for 3.5G Instead?

Deloitte predicts that in 2011 the deployment of next generation Long Term Evolution (LTE) wireless networks will fall short of industry expectations due to the continuing viability of the latest third generation (3G) wireless technologies, such as High Speed Packet Access (HSPA+), and the handsets that work with them.

Spectrum for LTE is currently being allocated, and 130 carriers were running LTE trials at the end of 2010. Many commentators expected widespread rollouts to have happened by now187; however, Deloitte expects that fewer than 30 LTE carriers in six countries will offer commercial service by the end of 2011188. While a few of the world's largest carriers will likely deploy LTE, most networks will stick with transition technologies for the next year.

Aside from the truism that "everything always takes longer than you think," there are two main reasons why 4G adoption might be slower than expected. First, not all mobile providers have made full use of their existing 3G spectrum: weak economic growth, low mobile broadband usage and underutilized networks have allowed some providers to defer additional investment.

Second, LTE – as it exists today – does not offer the quantum leap in speeds and features over 3G that previous generational upgrades did.

LTE is likely to be a major success in 2011 and beyond, with hundreds of millions of subscribers around the world gaining access to the benefits that LTE can provide189. But rollout will probably be slower than many people expect, especially if some mobile providers that have less congested networks – or that operate in markets with less immediate demand for broadband – decide the need for LTE is not as urgent as they previously thought. Providers that do have a need for LTE need it a lot, and they need it now: the big question is how large that group really is.

Although LTE networks are being marketed as 4G networks, it would be more precise to describe them as "4G ready". In their current form they do not offer a quantum leap in performance over 3.5G, which is why some carriers have been able to postpone upgrading.

The Technology Behind 3.5G and LTE

There are three basic tricks that carriers can use to wring more capacity out of their existing cellular spectrum.

  • Place cell towers closer together. In most big cities, however, tower density has already been pushed to the limit. Cutting-edge innovations such as femtocells and picocells could be used to shrink cell sizes further, but have yet to be widely adopted because of cost.
  • Improve how the RF signal is encoded. Advanced modulation techniques that squeeze more information into a given frequency band are constantly evolving. However, they require complex chips to implement. The latest is called 64 Quadrature Amplitude Modulation or 64QAM (pronounced "kwam").
  • Put multiple antennas on cell towers and mobile devices. This multiple input-multiple output configuration (known as MIMO and pronounced either "me-mo" or "my-mo") used to be found only in advanced military technology. It enables improved wireless communication that uses the spectrum more efficiently, particularly in urban areas, where signals bounce off buildings and suffer from multipath distortion190.

Some aspects of the full 4G standard can be found in current LTE implementations, such as the MIMO antenna configuration, QAM encoding and channel allocation and scheduling. However, true 4G must offer mobile speeds of 100 Mbit/second, and fixed access speeds of 1 Gbit/second. At the moment, real-world deployments of LTE are only achieving fixed download speeds of around 10Mbit/s191. This is much faster than older 3G technologies, but not nearly fast enough to qualify as true 4G.

The latest versions of 3G, such as HSPA and HSPA+, known as "3.5G" because they are a bridge between generations, use some of the same tricks as LTE. HSPA+ release 8 uses both 2x2 MIMO and 64QAM, and promises real-world mobile data download speeds of 15-30 Mbit/s by the end of 2011.

Many carriers, especially those with weaker balance sheets or less congested networks, are asking themselves why they should move to LTE when real-world deployments of HSPA+ seems to offer comparable speeds (more than 30 HSPA+ networks around the world currently offer 21 Mbit/s downloads).

The decision between 3.5G and LTE turns out to be more complex than it seems. Although 3.5G theoretically offers competitive speeds, it is less spectrally efficient than LTE and therefore uses more radio spectrum to achieve similar data rates. In some real-world circumstances, HSPA+ uses twice as much spectrum as an equivalent LTE implementation. Also, 3.5G lacks some of the architectural efficiencies of LTE to support enhanced features and services such as video.

Carriers that invest in LTE now may enjoy an easier, less expensive transition to true 4G when it becomes available. However, in 2011, 3.5G will likely be the most commonly deployed "next generation" technology as many carriers around the world do not currently have sufficient funding or need for LTE.



Bottom Line

The global market for deploying LTE networks is expected to be roughly $10 billion by 2014, and many times higher than that in subsequent years192. Most commentators agree that mobile providers will eventually invest heavily in 4G, however, a slower than expected rollout could disappoint some industry observers. Markets where 3G deployment took longer than expected saw significant erosion in equipment prices and margins; in some markets, late-built 3G networks even produced negative gross margins for the equipment vendors193.

Mobile providers with severe network congestion and weak ownership of spectrum have little choice at this point: only LTE's bandwidth efficiency can solve their problems. By contrast, networks with ample spectrum to handle their current and future needs can probably defer LTE for years. In fact, some emerging markets such as rural India and China are still in the process of deploying 3G, let alone 4G194.

The more difficult choice will be for providers that fall between the two extremes. Although they might think they can defer LTE investment for 3-4 years, a sudden surge in wireless data devices or usage patterns could create an immediate need for LTE's spectral efficiency and other features. As the last few years have shown, wireless demand can rise very abruptly. Carriers need to be prepared for data volume growth that is measured in the thousands of percent over three years, as past experience has shown that those rates can occur and even persist over several years.

A provider could spend hundreds of millions on HSPA+ in order to put off a multi-billion dollar investment in LTE, only to find itself facing an immediate need to upgrade to LTE and to have to spend the billions anyway.

Handset vendors also face a difficult choice. Most voice traffic is expected to stay on GSM next year, and a large share of data traffic is likely to be handled through dongles, personal mobile Wi-Fi hotspots and laptops with built-in 3G. Also, LTE networks will probably be more limited than expected in 2011; although they will tend to be available in the most affluent and data-hungry markets. Handset vendors that are thinking about not offering LTE versions of popular phones and tablets must weigh the decision carefully.

Finally, businesses selling services or applications that piggy-back on the network may have to adapt their strategies to a data world where most customers still connect through some flavor of 3G. This could mean deferring launches or finding alternate solutions until the faster networks are ready.

Wi-Fi Complements Cellular Broadband for "Data on the Move"

Deloitte predicts that in 2011 the volume of data uploaded or downloaded from portable devices via public Wi-Fi networks will grow at a much faster rate (25-50 percent) than the volume carried over cellular broadband networks. The bulk of this growth will be video data195; Wi-Fi is likely to become the default network for video applications.

Wi-Fi's increasing share of the mobile device data load will likely have a ripple effect in moderating the growth rate of cellular broadband traffic, potentially helping improve margins for mobile providers' data services.

Trends that could contribute to increased use of Wi-Fi use include: proliferation of Wi-Fi hotspots, increased penetration of Wi-Fi chips in portable data devices, easier log-in procedures to access hotspots, partnerships between hotspot providers and mobile providers, growing awareness of Wi-Fi capabilities in existing devices, superior battery life in some contexts196, and a steady shift toward tiered mobile data pricing197.

Cellular broadband will increasingly revolve around specific uses and the users that can take full advantage of the technology's unique strengths – wide-area coverage, mobility and integrated security198 – and justify the cost premium. These specific uses include:

  • Users who need to send a file while actually moving199. (This differs from being "on the move", which can include periods when the user is stationary, e.g., standing on a train platform, parked at a highway service station, or dining at a restaurant);
  • Relatively price-insensitive users (e.g., business users) who require a more secure connection;
  • Locations where public or private Wi-Fi connectivity is too congested and the user is willing to pay a premium for a better connection;
  • Low-bandwidth applications such as e-mail or text-based updates to social networks; and
  • Geographic regions where it is not commercially viable to deploy a public Wi-Fi network, but where some users might still need a wireless data connection.

Increased focus on these special situations could help boost margins for cellular broadband and reduce the disconnect between volumes carried and revenue generated.

Mobile data's appeal as a like-for-like alternative to fixed broadband may recede if the equivalent fixed broadband offer is cheaper and/or offers higher performance. The number of households that have cut their fixed connectivity cord may reduce as some formerly mobile-only households revert to fixed lines for broadband and voice access.

Wi-Fi's growing appeal for on-the-move data is likely to be based not just on the growing base of Wi-Fi hotspots, but on the appropriateness of their location and pricing200. Based on recent growth rates, the number of public hotspots worldwide could increase by 20 percent in 2011, rising to over 400,000. In addition, some fixed broadband providers are enabling customers to use other customers' Wi-Fi connections, creating networks with millions of hotspots201.

Meanwhile, the location of public hotspots is becoming more targeted to actual needs; users may no longer be required to seek out a specific restaurant or coffee chain in the hope of finding Wi-Fi202. Instead, Wi-Fi providers are likely to locate hotspots where people are known to need high speed data connections. Shopping centers could be designed from the ground up to incorporate Wi-Fi access203. Indeed some retailers might make it a standard policy to include Wi-Fi connectivity in their stores to encourage comparison shopping204. Photogenic tourist areas also could provide Wi-Fi hotspots to enable photographs to be distributed to friends and family within seconds205. In addition, Wi-Fi may become increasingly available on trains and train platforms206.

The proliferation of free hotspots207 and in some cases competitive Wi-Fi hotspot pricing – should drive adoption. Sponsored Wi-Fi could become increasingly common as part of branded marketing initiatives208. Also, for some users, hotspot access will be bundled with another service, such as broadband209.

As Wi-Fi networks expand and tiered pricing becomes increasingly pervasive, users will become accustomed to waiting until they are at a hotspot before streaming content or transferring large files. This will help limit the use of cellular broadband to specialized mobile applications.

Although cellular data traffic will likely continue to increase, the growth rate should moderate significantly from the levels seen in 2008-2010, when Wi-Fi was a less well-known and less pervasive alternative.

The year 2011 will almost certainly see growing shipments of Wi-Fi only portable data devices – such as eReaders, handheld game consoles, tablet computers, digital photo frames and even voice phones210 – largely due to their lower cost. 3G versions of eReaders cost up to a third more than Wi-Fi only models211; 3G tablets cost up to 20 percent more than Wi-Fi only models. Customers who occasionally need access to cellular broadband can purchase a MiFi device that converts a 3G signal into a usable Wi-Fi connection.

If a growing number of customers opt for Wi-Fi only devices, some manufacturers may decide not to produce 3G versions at all, particularly at the low end of the market. Other suppliers may limit their offerings to Wi-Fi only devices for technical reasons. For example, some video calling services might only be available when connected via Wi-Fi in order to reduce congestion on the cellular network212. To promote Wi-Fi use, manufacturers may start to bundle devices with subscriptions for a few free months of hotspot access.

Wi-Fi use – particularly for video applications – will likely also be driven by the shift from all-you-can-eat mobile data plans to capped monthly usage, a move that is already being implemented by mobile providers around the world. With a 200 megabyte cap, just one hour of video streaming at 500 Kbit/s would eat up an entire month's allowance.

The introduction of LTE networks – as well as the ongoing upgrade of existing 3G networks to HSPA+ – will boost the speeds available for cellular broadband. LTE offers higher spectral efficiency and is less prone to interference, but cells may be less ubiquitous and would therefore have higher contention and congestion. Meanwhile, Wi-Fi connections continue to get faster. The wireless link to a Wi-Fi router already exceeds 100 Mbit/s using the latest standard (802.11n)213. And the fixed networks that link Wi-Fi routers to the Internet are steadily improving214. In the end, LTE is unlikely to compete with Wi-Fi hotspots – unless the latter are congested – but would remain the clear choice for users requiring high speed data access beyond the reach of a Wi-Fi or fixed broadband connection.

Bottom Line

Mobile providers should view Wi-Fi and cellular broadband as complementary and build out blended networks, or partner with Wi-Fi providers as appropriate. Mobile providers and device vendors should not view the new, more specialized role for cellular broadband as a failure or a defeat. Given the significant cost difference between carrying data over a fixed network versus a 3G cellular network, 3G-based broadband may never be competitive against Wi-Fi on a like-for-like basis for high bandwidth data services.

Indeed, mobile providers could benefit the most if cellular broadband use starts to focus on applications that actually take advantage of its unique strengths – wide-area coverage, mobility and integrated security. Without such a shift, the current growth trend is expected to produce a 25-fold increase in mobile data with only a two-fold increase in revenues over the medium term, which appears to be unsustainable.

The battle between Wi-Fi and cellular broadband should not be seen as a zero-sum game: both can be winners. For example, a service for sharing photos on-the-go could use cellular broadband to immediately upload low resolution thumbnails, with the corresponding high resolution images being uploaded later from a Wi-Fi hotspot or fixed line connection.

In the face of convergence, mobile providers must think more broadly about the range of wireless and wireline technologies that people want to use, and then help their customers tap into the right mix. The idea is to make the entire connected experience as seamless as possible, while charging both business users and consumers an appropriate amount for the privilege of simplified access to a complex set of networks.

IT managers can help their companies keep costs in check by making it as easy as possible for users to log into Wi-Fi networks when available. This is especially important for users who access data while roaming; access to hotspots could represent a major cost saving.

Wi-Fi network providers need to be aware of Wi-Fi's limitations, particularly the issue of radio interference. Wi-Fi shares unlicensed spectrum with a wide range of devices from microwave ovens to Bluetooth devices to wireless game controllers. Connection quality must be continuously monitored to avoid network degradation. Wi-Fi providers must also create networks with sufficient capacity (particularly backhaul capacity) so the networks are not overwhelmed by the increasing volume of users and data traffic215.

What is "In Store" for Wi-Fi: Online Comparison Shopping on Aisle 3

Deloitte predicts that in 2011, 25 percent of North American big box and anchor tenant retailers will begin offering free in-store Wi-Fi access to shoppers. In 2012, the proportion should continue to rise in North America and start to spread around the world.

Until now, cellular data was the only connectivity available inside most large stores, and many customers did not have a phone or data plan that enabled Internet access. Also, cellular signals can be highly variable: weak signals and low speeds are common, especially deep inside a store. Without Wi-Fi, the in-store online experience is often frustrating and dissatisfying.

Offering Wi-Fi access is not yet an accepted retailing practice216. Although Wi-Fi has become pervasive in cafés and in the common areas of malls, individual retailers feared that consumers would use their smartphones or tablets and the Internet to comparison shop. Retailers do not stock flyers or catalogs from their competition...why would they provide a data pipe that tells customers the same or similar merchandise is available at a competitor, possibly for a better price?

Conversations with large North American retailers suggest that this fear may have been misguided. When shoppers do in-store online comparison shopping, preliminary and anecdotal evidence suggests the likelihood of purchasing appears to go up, not down.

A common reason why shoppers do not make a purchase is that they are paralyzed by the lack of knowledge: "is this item available elsewhere for a much better price?" When an online search reveals that competitors' prices are similar, many shoppers proceed with the purchase at the store they are in, rather than drive around just to save a few dollars. Although some sales are lost, experiences from early adopters and other comparison technologies suggest that is more than offset by connected consumers being less likely to leave without purchasing, and ending up spending more217.

In-store Wi-Fi would enable customers to use the retailer's digital sales tools to answer basic questions and to find out if the item they want is in stock. This would allow in-store employees to spend their time on more valuable activities such as handling detailed questions and increasing service and sales, instead of responding to routine inquiries. Stores could deploy Wi-Fi tablets as interactive catalogs and order entry systems. And certain products, such as Wi-Fi enabled TVs, could be demonstrated more effectively218. Broadly speaking, some retailers view Wi-Fi as a way "to further enhance the customer in-store experience219."

Even if shoppers use a store's Wi-Fi for personal activities (e.g., checking email, other legitimate web browsing) they are likely to spend more time in the store, perhaps increasing their impulse buying and total spending. Also, very few customers are likely to "park" themselves in the store just to use Wi-Fi, as most retailers do not provide tables and chairs.

In-store Wi-Fi could enable a variety of advanced push applications. Localization would allow for precise targeting: shoppers in the linens section could have information or discounts pushed to their mobile devices. Up-sell offers could also be pushed: a shopper who buys a barbecue grill could be instantly sent an offer on patio furniture that could either be purchased in store or though the website for home delivery.

Another benefit for retailers who offer in-store Wi-Fi is collection of customer data. Depending on Wi-Fi user agreements and local privacy laws, various levels of in-store customer information could be collected, retained and analyzed. At the most basic level, Wi-Fi would enable a retailer to map customers' physical paths through the store220. In addition, a retailer could gather email addresses and cell phone numbers to add to its customer database221. Some retailers offer customers the option to sign-up for free Wi-Fi access by logging in through third-party social media sites such as Facebook. This enables a retailer to collect other useful data, such as age, gender, birth date, relationship status, occupation and personal interests.222 However, the availability of such data depends on what users are willing to share publicly via Facebook and in their privacy settings. Once gathered, customer information could be retained and used on future visits to direct the customer to a personalized landing page with targeted promotions.

When customers are logged in to a store's Wi-Fi network, it is possible to track their online activities, including the Web searches they conduct and the websites they view.223 Doing so can provide useful information about which competitive shopping destinations are most frequently used. Taken to an extreme, the precise content of their activities could even be monitored and acted upon in real time by, for example, delivering a coupon or sales pitch to customers' devices in response to their browsing behavior. This would enable retailers to serve advertisements more relevant to a customer's interests – a practice known as online behavioral advertising (or Internet-based advertising). Retailers could also aggregate data collected from Web based traffic and then match it against real-time in-store purchases and subsequent online purchases.

Bottom Line

In-store Wi-Fi presents retailers with a number of minor challenges. Retailers will probably need to build more and better apps to enhance the in-store experience. They may also need to upgrade their Wi-Fi equipment and network connectivity to support additional connections. However, based on experiences from some early in-store deployments, the costs to address these challenges are not material to most large retailers223.

Far and away the biggest challenge relates to privacy and customer data. This is not a new issue for many retailers, but in the context of Wi-Fi it will likely require greater awareness of the changing regulatory and legal environment.

Data monitoring, collection and retention and behavioral advertising have been the subject of much regulatory debate by watchdogs, regulators, privacy advocates, and consumers in the United States, Europe, and Canada alike224. For example, two separate privacy bills have been introduced in the United States, with both the Commerce Department and the Federal Trade Commission expected to issue independent reports providing businesses with regulatory guidance on privacy issues225. Collection of customer data over Wi-Fi networks has also been in the news recently. Although the story had nothing to do with the retail industry, and involved inadvertent data collection, it demonstrates how sensitive this issue is for regulators and the public.

In providing Wi-Fi services to customers, retailers must understand and stay abreast of regulatory changes and shifting public sensitivities about online tracking practices. This can help them strike the right balance between maximizing data performance and respecting customer privacy.

Video Calling: The Base Goes Mainstream, But Usage Remains Niche

Deloitte believes that in 2011 video calling will be cheaper, better and more widely available than ever; yet a boom in demand is unlikely. Use of video calling will likely continue to grow steadily. However, we expect the vast majority of calls – both for business and consumer uses, and on fixed and mobile networks – will remain purely voice-based, and that most people who really need to see each other will continue to opt for face-to-face meetings rather than video conferences.

There are two main reasons why video calling is unlikely to experience an inflection. First, for conversations that can be handled by phone, a voice-only call will continue to suffice in most cases; video exceeds needs. Second, in situations that require a deeper level of interaction, a video call, despite many recent innovations, still cannot compete with the richness and depth of a face-to-face meeting.

Many commentators have heralded 2011 as a breakthrough year for video conferencing, citing lower costs, higher quality and an expanding range and volume of video-ready devices in the marketplace226. In fact, one research firm has forecast that the number of mobile video-calling users in North America will rise by a CAGR of 115 percent through 2015, generating 9 petabytes of additional data traffic227. But in our view these advances will likely not be sufficient to catalyze mass market adoption of video calling in 2011.

It is true that television-based video conferencing that offers sufficient quality for business calls should become significantly cheaper in 2011228. Television manufacturers and video conferencing specialists are both expected to expand their television-based offerings in the sub-$10,000 range229. This contrasts sharply with the price range for room-based, multiple-screen video conferencing solutions, which can start at more than $100,000.

Also, many more devices are likely to include built-in video-calling capabilities. Deloitte's estimate is that about 400 million new devices with the required forward-facing video cameras will ship in 2011, including smartphones, tablets230, netbooks, desktop computers, laptops, MP4 players and GPS units231.

Meanwhile, the quality of video calls – including ease-of-use, image resolution, audio-video synchronization, and reduced jitter and lag – should steadily improve thanks to technological advances such as improved compression software, higher broadband speeds and increased integration with social networking sites232. LTE technology – wherever it is deployed in 2011 – should offer a better experience owing to its superior video call handling capabilities relative to HSPA variants233.

Despite these broad improvements in video conferencing, as well as the larger installed base of devices that can support video calling, Deloitte does not expect a dramatic increase in the volume of video calls.

For businesses, the use of video calling is likely to remain modest. Most business conversations simply do not require a video call. And despite falling prices, the cost of setting up a video conferencing system and dedicated room may still be prohibitive, even for businesses that are trying hard to reduce their travel costs.

There is also a question of who these businesses can call. A company that is willing and able to invest in a highend, multiple-screen video conferencing solution to reduce its carbon footprint may find few peers with compatible equipment. In fact, during 2011 there may still be significantly more airports in the world than companies with the ability to hold a high-end video conference234.

Business could of course use the embedded cameras within laptops to make video calls. However, the quality may not be acceptable given the typical size and resolution of such cameras; individuals sitting in front of their laptops cannot recreate the feeling of a group meeting. Also, calls from open plan environments and offices not dedicated to video conferencing might require erasing whiteboards or removing confidential materials to prevent them from appearing in the background.

For consumers, the volume of video calls should continue to rise modestly, but a spike in usage seems unlikely. Many consumers see video calling as an undesirable compromise between voice-only calls and in-person meetings. If people just need to communicate, a standard voice call is sufficient. And if they really want to see each other, there is no substitute for an in-person meeting. Can video calls create meaningful value in the no-man's land between these two extremes? To date, video calls have proven popular with families stretched across countries or continents – especially those with newborns; however, market penetration within the segment is already relatively high, which could limit future growth.

Cost is also an important factor. Higher service charges would likely dampen enthusiasm for video calling, as would higher charges and stricter caps for mobile data.

Last but not least, one of the key factors that could limit the growth of video calling is that it tends to make people self-conscious235. Many of us are unfamiliar and uncomfortable with seeing moving images of ourselves; this can be distracting and dampen spontaneity. Also, we might feel the need to change clothes or apply make-up before the call, which creates an extra inconvenience. Over time, increased familiarity is likely to boost our comfort level. But it might take a generation for video calling to become pervasive.

The video call, in all its forms, has advanced significantly since it was first demonstrated in 1964236. Technologically it has made major strides over the last decade, in terms of quality, functionality and price. But despite these advances, it appears that hundreds of millions of people equipped with video-calling devices are not quite ready to make the video call a regular part of their lives237. At least not in 2011.

Bottom Line

In the business world, relationships and trust are often built during conversations at bars and restaurants, during taxi rides, on golf courses, and at the company water cooler. Video calling cannot replicate these kinds of experiences. Moreover, while video conferencing might be price-competitive with business-class travel and five-star hotels, the growing acceptance of low-cost flights and budget accommodations makes in-person business trips more economically viable.

Video calling is generally better for the environment than carbon-intensive travel. However, businesses looking to make a major investment in video calling capabilities should consider all of the factors – environmental and otherwise – including the additional resources required to build a dedicated room for video conferences.

The value of any network is linked to its size, which is why interoperability is critical. Video calling's potential would be severely constrained if users were limited to communicating with others that use the same vendor's equipment.

Footnotes

187. Get Ready for the Next Wave of Wireless, Computerworld, 14 March 2007: http://itreports.computerworld.com/s/article/print/287965/Fast_Furious?taxonomyName=Mobile+and+Wireless&taxonomyId=15

188. The LTE (and LTE-Advanced) Guide, LTE Portal, 15 November 2010: http://lteportal.com/LTE_Business_Guide/; pp 41 and 48

189. Of the population covered by LTE as at year end 2011, virtually all of them will be in Japan, South Korea and the United States. As per LTE Business Guide ibid, page 48, IDATE forecast.

190. For more information about modulation and MIMO, see: http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia_term/0%2C2542%2Ct%3DMIMO&i%3D47052%2C00.asp and http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia_term/0,2542,t=QAM64&i=50007,00.asp

191. First Hands-On Impressions of Verizon 4G: It's Fast!, GigaOM, 1 December 2010: http://gigaom.com/2010/12/01/verizon-4g-review/

192. Who's Going to Win the LTE Race?, GigaOM, 24 November 2010: http://gigaom.com/2010/11/24/whos-going-to-win-the-lte-race/

193. Nortel reports loss in Q3, sees pickup in Q4, Network World Newsletter, 20 December 2004: http://www.mail-archive.com/nelayan_indo@setio.net/msg 07639.html

194. Analysis: Speedier downloads on your iPhone? Not so fast in Asia, Reuters, 23 November 2010: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AM1OG20101123

195. See Figure 2: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2009-2014, Cisco website, 9 February 2010: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html

196. For example, battery life in some Wi-Fi only e-Readers is superior to equivalent mobile models.

197. Vodafone pins future on tiered data pricing, services, Total Telecom, 9 November 2010: http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=460094; T-Mobile USA promises better value-tiered pricing, Reuters UK edition, 2 November 2010: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6A132U20101102; IBM: Tiered mobile data pricing here to stay, Network World, 9 July 2010: http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/070910-ibm-tiered-mobile-data-pricing.html; Verizon CEO confirms plans for tiered data pricing, engadget, 24 September 2010: http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/24/verizon-ceo-confirms-plans-for-tiered-data-pricing/

198. Free public Wi-Fi hotspots are often unsecured so that users can get connected without needing to request a user id or password. Communications over unsecured connections can be made secure, for example by switching on a firewall, disabling file and printer sharing and encrypting data. Source: Mobile broadband or WiFi? You betcha, The Register, 29 January 2009: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/01/29/notebook_connectivity/page2.html

199. It is worth noting that one Wi-Fi network operator, Cablevision, plans to deploy Wi-Fi connectivity along the entirety of a metropolitan railway line. See: Cablevision Tries To Extend WiFi Network To Trains, paidContent.org, 2 June 2010: http://paidcontent.org/article/419-cablevision-tries-to-extend-wifinetwork-to-trains/

200. For an example of growth and consolidation in the Wi-Fi hotspot market, see: Bitbuzz grabs majority of Ireland's public Wi-Fi market and eyes UK, Guardian, 25 November 2010: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2010/nov/25/irish-bitbuzz-wifi-public-startup

201. For more information, see Fon website: http://corp.fon.com/en/this-is-fon/wifi-everywhere/

202. In the U.S., Cablevision has deployed tens of thousands of hotspots at train stations, streets featuring shops and restaurants, public parks, and beaches. Source; Cablevision Ads Attack Slow 3G Networks, Light Reading, 10 June 2010: http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=193085&site=lr_cable

203. Free Wi-Fi at Westfield London, http://uk.westfield.com/london/services/concierge/free-wifi

204. Who's afraid of free WiFi?, The Globe and Mail, 18 November 2010: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/duncan-stewart/whos-afraid-of-free-wifi/article1803347/

205. See: AT&T adds Wi-Fi hot zone to relieve Times Square congestion, Computerworld, 25 May 2010: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9177327/AT_T_adds_Wi_Fi_hot_zone_to_relieve_Times_Square_congestion; AT&T Expands Wi-Fi Hot Zones to Take the Heat Off Its Network, GigaOM, 26 July 2010: http://gigaom.com/2010/07/26/att-expands-wi-fi-hot-zones-to-take-the-heat-off-its-network/

206. For example, see: London Underground and BT to trial Wi-Fi at Charing Cross tube station, BT Press Release, 29 October 2010: http://www.btplc.com/news/articles/showarticle.cfm?articleid=%7Befb77907-6741-4f53-9b65-fd464785cb2d%7D; Great Scot! Wi-Fi on the Glasgow Subway, Metro Networking, 26 October 2010: http://www.reghardware.com/2010/10/26/the_cloud_wifi_underground_glasgow/

207. In the U.S., the majority of public hotspots are now free. Source: JiWire Mobile Audience Insights Report, Q2 2010: http://www.jiwire.com/downloads/pdf/JiWire_MobileAudienceInsightsReport_Q32010.pdf; In 2010 Starbucks' U.S. started offering Wi-Fi for free. Source: Starbucks Website: http://www.starbucks.com/coffeehouse/wireless-internet; McDonalds offers free Wi-Fi in 11,000 restaurants in the US. Source: McDonalds website: http://www.mcdonalds.com/us/en/services/free_wifi.html

208. For example, see: Skype provides free wifi access across the UK for Internet Week, The Telegraph, 8 November 2010: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/8117427/Skype-provides-free-wifi-access-across-the-UK-for-Internet-Week.html; Free Airplane WiFi Is Google's Holiday Gift To The Internet Obsessive, Taylor Buley blog on Forbes, 8 November 2010: http://blogs.forbes.com/taylorbuley/2010/11/08/free-airplane-wifi-is-googles-holiday-gift-to-the-internetobsessive/?boxes=financechannelforbes; Google Gives Wi-Fi Away Free at 47 U.S. Airports for Holidays, PCWorld Blogs, 10 November 2010: http://www.pcworld.com/article/181807/google_gives_wifi_away_free_at_47_us_airports_for_holidays.html

209. For example, BT's broadband customers have access to 1.6 million Wi-Fi hotspots around the world. Source: BT launches 'free' Wi-Fi mobile app, Guardian, 7 September 2010: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/sep/07/bt-wi-fi-mobile-app; Virgin Media mulls Wi-Fi network launch, http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk, 23 November 2010: http://www.brandrepublic.com/news/1042388/virgin-media-mulls-wi-fi-network-launch/

210. Cablevision Preps Network DVR, WiFi Phone, Light Reading, 25 February 2010: http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=188425&site=lr_cable

211. Based on Kindle pricing as of 5 December 2010, see www.amazon.com and other national Amazon sites

212. Apple's FaceTime service was only available via Wi-Fi as of November 2010. Source: Apple website: http://www.apple.com/iphone/features/facetime.html

213. The long-term target for Wi-Fi speeds is 1 Gigabit. Source: 802.11n: Ratified at Last, Wi-Fi Planet, 14 September 2009: http://www.wi-fiplanet.com/news/article.php/3838991/80211n-Ratified-at-Last.html; The upcoming standard, 802.11 ac may offer 1 Gbit/s. Source: 802.11ac Standard Will Bring Gigabit Speeds to WiFi, PCWorld, 9 December 2009: http://www.pcworld.com/article/184067/80211ac_standard_will_bring_gigabit _speeds_to_wifi.html

214. For example Verizon's 150/35 Mbit/s service offers 100 Mbit/s download speeds via a Wi-Fi router. This service is based on an Actiontec broadband home router which includes 802.11n. Source: Verizon debuts 150/35 Mbps FiOS speed tier, FierceTelecom.com, 22 November 2010: http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/verizon-debuts-15035-mbps-fios-speed-tier/2010-11-22

215. For a view on the quality of Wi-Fi networks in the UK, see: Wi-Fi NotSpots: Massive failure rates revealed, Electricpig.co.uk, 19 November 2010: http://www.electricpig.co.uk/2010/11/19/wi-fi-notspots-massive-failure-rates-revealed/

216. What's the TAM and Where Are the Remaining Sweet Spots?, ABI Research, Q1 2007: http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1000462-WiFi+in+the+Retail+Vertical

217. Source: conversations with key U.S. and Canadian retailers, September-November 2010

218. Sam's Club to offer Wi-Fi access, mobile app, CNET News, 10 August 2010: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20013167-94.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

219. Nordstrom Upgrades Store, Online Technology as Part of $69 Million Spend, Retail Info System News, 22 November 2010: http://risnews.edgl.com/retailnews/Nordstrom-Upgrades-Store,-Online-Technology-as-Part-of-$69-Million-Spend56744

220. Tracking Shoppers with Wi-Fi and RTLS, Datamation, 5 December 2008: http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/mowi/article.php/3789256/Tracking-Shoppers-with-Wi-Fi-and-RTLS.htm

221. Many retailers have excellent databases from online shopping done over PCs – they have much less good customer data from mobile devices. Source: conversations with key U.S. retailers – September 2010. Some estimate that each email they add to their database can be worth up to $150 in future revenue.

222. Online Privacy Policy, Boldstreet Wireless: http://www.boldstreet.com/privacy.html

223. Easy Wi-Fi at Retail Locations, A Devicescape Application Note, January 2009: http://devicescape.com/assets/docs/DS_EWF_Retail_Whitepaper.pdf

224. Expectations for Consumer Consent in Interest Based Advertising: Regulatory and Industry Positions in the United States, Europe, and Canada, Jordan Prokopy and Megan Brister, BNA Privacy and Security Law Report. Vol. 9. No. 21. Pp. 775-779.

225. Stage Set for Showdown on Online Privacy, New York Times, 9 November 2010: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/10/business/media/10privacy.html

226. For example see: The Human Cloud Is A Greener Workforce, Reuters, 12 November 2010: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS278531536120101112; T-Mobile and Qik Launch Breakthrough Mobile Video Chat Service, Qik.com, 3 November 2010: http://qik.com/blog/t-mobile-and-qik-launch-breakthrough-mobile-videochat-service/; Polycom Delivers Breakthrough Video Integration for Microsoft Unified Communications Environments, Polycom website, 9 February 2010: http://www.polycom.com/company/news_room/press_releases/2010/20100209_1.html

227. Mobile Video Calling Drives for Critical Mass: Revenue to Surpass $1 Billion by 2015, In-Stat, 27 October 2010: http://www.instat.com/newmk.asp?ID=2898&SourceID=00000652000000000000

228. Cisco unveils home video conferencing system with $599 price tag, Total Telecom, 7 October 2010: http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=459191; For a list of Skype-enabled televisions, see: http://shop.skype.com/skype-for-tv/#skype-enabled-tvs

229. Skype Goes HD: Pro-Quality Videoconferencing for Small Business with LG, Panasonic TV's, TechStartups, 5 January 2010: http://www.techstartups.com/2010/01/05/skype-goes-hd-pro-quality-videoconferencing-for-small-business-with-lg-panasonic-tvs/

230. Apple iPad to Have Two Cameras?, Gaj-it.com, 30 October 2010: http://www.gaj-it.com/26553/apple-ipad-to-have-two-cameras/

231. For example, see: https://buy.garmin.com/shop/shop.do?pID=26876&ra=true

232. High-definition video calls will become available on tablet computers. Source: Galaxy Tabs to soon have access to HD videoconferencing, Computerworld, 9 November 2010: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9195659/Galaxy_Tabs_to_soon_have_access_to_HD_videoconferencing; also see this article for a view on the improvements in quality available at the smartphone level: Apple's FaceTime freakin' rocks, iTWire, 28 October 2010: http://www.itwire.com/yourit-news/mobility/42749-apples-facetime-freakin-rocks; see this article on Skype video calling integration into Facebook: Skype and Facebook announce video calls deal, Telegraph, 14 October 2010: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/8063498/Skype-and-Facebook-announce-video-calls-deal.html

233. This is due to better signalling capability for video calls.

234. There are approaching 50,000 airports in the world. For data on interoperable high-end video conferencing equipment, see: AT&T and BT in telepresence exchange, Financial Times, 1 December 2010: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6adeaf40-fcb1-11df-bfdd-00144feab49a.html#axzz16qWDQMf2

235. For example see: Call Me! But Not on Skype or Any Other Videophone, Time, 18 January 2010: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1952314,00.html

236. Will Videoconferencing Replace the Telephone?, PCWorld, 25 November 2010: http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/211699/will_videoconferencing_replace_the_telephone.html

237. As of September 2010, 19 percent of U.S. adults had tried a video call via their PC or mobile phone at some time. Source: Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project Survey, PewInternet, 13 October 2010: http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2010/Video-chat/Findings.aspx

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