Mexico: Posibles efectos derivados de las elecciones en EUA

Derivado del resultado de las elecciones en nuestro país vecino, se han generado diversas especulaciones y afirmaciones en relación a lo que será el futuro de la relación comercial entre México y Estados Unidos.

Inclusive dentro del proceso electoral previo a las elecciones, los principales candidatos se manifestaron en relación con el tema de la globalización y específicamente respecto al Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN) y de la aprobación del Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP por sus siglas en inglés), lo cual genera dudas e incertidumbre al sector manufacturero, empresarial e inversionista en territorio mexicano.

Ante la especulación y con la finalidad de tener un escenario más claro de los procesos que tanto el gobierno de EUA como el de México han de llevar a cabo previo a la sucesión presidencial, Basham participará activamente en diversos foros y generará opiniones relacionadas con el tema; todo ello con el afán de que nuestros clientes y amigos cuenten con información oportuna, objetiva y veraz sobre dicho proceso y que con ello exista la posibilidad de enfrentar de forma más inteligente e informada cualquier contingencia que se derive de la elección y cuenten con las herramientas para elegir la mejor opción para la continuidad y conducción de negocios e inversiones tanto presentes como futuras.

El equipo de transición del presidente electo Trump ha manifestado su intención de que EUA emplace a los gobiernos de México y Canadá para que acudan a mesas de negociación sobre dicho tratado y de no llegar a un buen puerto, la consecuencia planteada sería la denuncia de EUA del TLCAN, traduciéndose esto en una salida de EUA de dicho tratado.

En específico, por lo que se refiere a una renegociación del TLCAN e incluso un aumento unilateral de aranceles a los bienes originarios de México, podemos adelantar lo siguiente:

Proceso de denuncia del TLCAN

El TLCAN es un acuerdo comercial que hoy se encuentra vigente y el proceso de renegociación o denuncia deberá sujetarse a las normas procedimentales que prevé el propio texto del acuerdo comercial, la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC) y la Convención de Viena sobre el Derecho de los Tratados.

Es importante precisar que no es legalmente posible que el presidente electo de los Estados Unidos de América, al asumir la presidencia, desconozca el TLCAN sin agotar antes los procedimientos legales existentes.

El propio TLCAN establece un esquema de salida del mismo, este esquema de salida, está contemplado en el artículo 2205 de dicho Tratado; en supuesto de que EUA decidiese denunciar el TLCAN, tendría que notificar a México y Canadá de su intención de denunciar el tratado y a los 6 meses de dicha denuncia EUA dejaría de formar parte del TLCAN.

En caso de que después de la ronda de negociaciones se presente la denuncia de EUA hacia el tratado se estimaría que para el año 2018 EUA dejara de ser parte del TLCAN si optan por seguir dicho camino.

Durante dicha renegociación, tanto Gobierno, Sector Privado y Academia, podrán expresar los pros y contras, específicamente en lo que se refiere al posible texto, condiciones y tasas arancelarias que el Gobierno Norteamericano propondría modificar, dando oportunidad a que en las mesas de negociación se privilegie el estado de derecho y los intereses legítimos de las partes.

Relación de Comercio Internacional de EUA y México sin el TLCAN. Ante una eventual salida de EUA del TLCAN, la relación comercial con México tendría un cambio en las reglas del juego, y derivado de dicha situación nuestro comercio internacional con dicho país tendría que regularse por las reglas generales de la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC). Esto implicaría que, en las exportaciones de productos originarios de México, éstos deberán ser importadas a EUA aplicando los principios de Nación Más Favorecida (NMF) establecidos por la OMC. Al respecto, EUA ha establecido aranceles relativamente bajos en las importaciones a tasa general, por lo que, en este caso específico, no vislumbramos que exista una afectación tan desfavorable que derive en mover cadenas productivas fuera de nuestro país.

Incremento unilateral de aranceles.

Por lo que se refiere al incremento unilateral de aranceles, su modificación también se encuentra sujeta a procedimientos previos, y los mismos deberán vigilar que dichas medidas no atenten o vulneren disposiciones de derecho internacional público.

En el caso que EUA decidiera no jugar con las reglas establecidas por el principio de NMF y decidiese imponer aranceles más altos y fuera de toda lógica como fueron anunciados durante la campaña (Ej. 35% a los autos producidos en México); nuestro país cuenta con las herramientas de derecho internacional para defender sus intereses o bien ejercer presión hacia los sectores más sensibles de EUA, tal y como ocurrió en años anteriores, en los que se impuso una medida retaliatoria a productos importados de EUA en represalia por la medida tomada en contra del transporte de carga transfronterizo.

Monitoreo y cuestiones a considerar.

 Desde luego es importante dar un seguimiento puntual y específico en cada uno de los sectores que pudiesen resultar afectados y estar atentos tanto a la integración del gabinete del presidente electo, así como las acciones que en firme se anuncien para los primeros 100 días de gobierno, por lo que el equipo de Basham se pone a sus órdenes para poder vigilar este proceso con el fin de evitar o mitigar los efectos negativos que pudiesen generarse derivado de la sucesión presidencial.

Los abogados del área de Comercio Exterior y Aduanas de la Firma nos ponemos a su disposición para ampliar la información aquí contenida o con cualquier otro asunto.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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