Canada: The SCC Leave Project: Predictions For March 16, 2023

Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on March 16, 2023.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

• Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
• Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
• Unlikely Contenders– These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
• Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 37 leave application decisions coming out on March 16, 2023. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 37 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Cases to Watch

Eurobank Ergasias S.A. v Bombardier inc., et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 42% chance of getting leave.

City of St. John's v Wallace Lynch, Willis Lynch, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 34% chance of getting leave

Possible Contenders

Rath & Company, et al v Tallcree First Nation

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 16% chance of getting leave.

George Gordon First Nation and the Chief and Council of the George Gordon First Nation Comprised of Chief Glen Pratt and Councillors John McNab, Bonny Gordon, Donna Anderson, Hugh Pratt, Dennis Hunter, Bryan A. McNabb, et al v His Majesty the King in Right of Saskatchewan, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.

Shawntez Downey v His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Daniel Downey v His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

York Region District School Board v Elementary Teachers' Federation of Ontario

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Estate of Pasquale Paletta v His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.

Dellan McMorris v His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Société Radio-Canada, et al c Sa Majesté le Roi, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

St. Benedict Catholic Secondary School Trust v. His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Krista Pinksen v Roger Rampersad, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Nancy Kelly v His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Frederic Hakizimana, et al v Canada (Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness), et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Prairies Tubulars (2015) Inc v Canada Border Services Agency, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Iris Technologies Inc v Attorney General of Canada

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

Amanda Hussey v Bell Mobility Inc

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

Geneviève Groleau, et al c Procureur général du Québec

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

P.V. c C.P.

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Debra Selkirk, et al v Trillium Gift of Life Network, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Cynthia Rebecca Delores LeRoy v Century Services Corp

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Luc Vaillancourt, et al c Sa Majesté le Roi, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Location Jean Miller inc., et al c Comité des citoyens pour la sauvegarde de notre qualité de vie (Val-David), et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Paul Bouchard c Comité des citoyens pour la sauvegarde de notre qualité de vie (Val-David), et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Silverio Pereira v Aviva General Insurance Company

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Chang Jacques v Rona Inc

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Diana Hordo, et al v Arnold H. Zweig

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Neil E. Thomson v His Majesty the King in Right of British Columbia, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Zoran Fotak v Carmela Maria Capone

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Jenny Tang v Human Rights Tribunal of Ontario, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Chang Jacques v Jennifer Muir

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Lise Fortin c Mazda Canada inc

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Douglas J. Kuny v Pullan Kammerloch Frohlinger, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Jason Swist, et al v MEG Energy Corporation

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Michael E. Heller c Autorité des marchés financiers

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

F. H. v His Majesty the King

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Amit Arora v Canadian National Railway, et al

• Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

UPDATE ON MARCH 16: WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK?

The Supreme Court granted leave to five matters today, including the two cases that our model had identified as having the highest probabilities of getting leave: Eurobank Ergasias S.A. v Bombardier inc., et al and City of St. John's v Wallace Lynch, Willis Lynch, et al. Find the full list here.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.