Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on March 14, 2024.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 21 leave application decisions coming out on March 14, 2024. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 21 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Possible Contenders

Lynda Friendly and Lynda Friendly & Associates by their assignee, Assignment Credit Corp v 1671379 Ontario Inc

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 20% chance of getting leave.

Lee Chia Weng v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 17% chance of getting leave.

Jacques Delisle v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 16% chance of getting leave.

Gateway Bible Baptist Church v His Majesty the King in Right of the Province of Manitoba

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 13% chance of getting leave.

Sarah King v Omer Madi

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.

Marie-France Taillon v Retraite Québec

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

KM v Minister of Community Services (Nova Scotia)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Sacha Grenon v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Daniel Austin Viau v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Matthew Douglas de Grood v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Khodor Ken Aboutaam a.ka. Ken Aboutaam a.ka. Khodor Aboutaam v Attorney General of Canada on behalf of the United States of America

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Jean Petit v Daniel Gagnon, en sa qualité de syndic du Barreau du Québec

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Joris Salverda v His Majesty the King (Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Holly Dean v Maureen McDonald

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Anthony Dewayne Hicks v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Rustum Asaduzzaman v Caroline Leonard, Cardinal Leonard Denis Avocat SN

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Miles Jeffrey Goldstick v Eleanor Monsma

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Tom Khanh Tran v Thi Thanh Tam Tran

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Delane Industry Co Ltd v Tsawwassen Quay Market Corporation

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Wenwen Numair v Muhammad Numair

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Rafa Taimish v Zaid Al-Kadhimi

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.