Brazil: Infraestrutura e risco cambial: como descongelar investimentos

Last Updated: 31 March 2017
Article by Eduardo Salomão Neto

O problema das deficiências brasileiras em portos, geração de energia, transportes e tantas mais tem, claro, sua raiz na falta de dinheiro. Não na falta de dinheiro no mundo, onde sobra e as taxas de juros são baixas, mas justamente no Brasil. Aqui, à parte manifestações protocolares de otimismo, sabe-se que a percepção de risco de investidores internacionais para o longo prazo é ruim. Gastos públicos altos, empresas endividadas, governo mais ainda, atraso no conhecimento e na tecnologia, tudo faz crer em economia que perderá valor em relação ao mundo externo.

Só que determinismo econômico é via duvidosa e essa lógica só existe se nada for feito para reverter a tendência. Um dos caminhos, embora certamente não o único, é o investimento em infraestrutura. Mas como, se os capitais nacionais são insuficientes e os escassos fundos estatais tendem a ser mal distribuídos, isso quando existem?

O capital estrangeiro seria, claro, a solução em um cenário assim, mas ele hesita em vir. É impossível apontar um só motivo, mas muito contribui a percepção de que as agruras econômicas farão com que o câmbio se desvalorize, depois da entrada do investimento no país. As consequências disso são duas: a primeira é que a retirada dos recursos do Brasil, possivelmente por venda do projeto financiado, poderia resultar em prejuízo. Mas essa inconveniência pode ser relativizada porque se manifesta no longo prazo. A segunda, pior porque afeta o investidor ou financiador, mesmo que tenha perspectiva de longo prazo, é que as tarifas cobradas, necessariamente em reais, passariam a representar, após eventual desvalorização cambial, valor inferior em dólares. Inferior o suficiente para prejudicar o retorno do investimento ao longo do tempo. Trata-se de um defeito imperdoável para quem aplicar dinheiro em vista de ganhos, eventualmente tendo de dar satisfações a investidores, no caso de fundos, bancos e outros agentes profissionais. A isso soma-se o fato de que muitos gastos com projetos de infraestrutura, principalmente em sua fase de implantação, têm de ser feitos em moeda forte, para atender às despesas como serviços técnicos, equipamentos importados, transferência de tecnologia.

A solução para o impasse passaria por garantia desses riscos, a qual teria de vir do setor público. Mas como contar com fundos públicos no atual momento de penúria? Dificilmente seu suprimento virá pelo aumento de tributação, porque no Brasil a atividade produtiva paga já impostos elevados e há pouca elasticidade em período de crise. Há, é verdade, áreas insuficientemente tributadas em que o aumento de incidência fiscal não prejudicaria a atividade econômica de empresas e trabalhadores de qualquer nível, como a sucessão por morte. Mas escassa disposição política de enfrentar o patrimonialismo da sociedade brasileira torna improvável uma reforma no curto prazo, sendo previsível que o país permaneça, apesar de suas carências, como um santuário fiscal para os patrimônios passivos não empresariais. Assim, alternativas para o financiamento da infraestrutura precisam ser analisadas.

Uma delas, juridicamente irretocável, seria a criação de "fundo" privado, com as seguintes características:

i) seria alimentado por acréscimo nas tarifas cobradas de consumidores;

ii) acumularia recursos que seriam administrados por gestor privado com vistas a preservar valor, inclusive em relação a parâmetro cambial;

iii) os investimentos do fundo seriam escolhidos de forma a propiciar proteção contra a desvalorização da moeda brasileira, seja por meio de derivativos locais ou de investimentos diretamente em ativos no exterior, sem prejuízo de outras opções não cambiais, quando isso fosse recomendado pela conjuntura do país;

iv) durante prazo específico, que poderia ser calculado com base no período de amortização do investimento inicial ou outro critério, os recursos acumulados seriam usados para compensar o projeto de infraestrutura e indiretamente seus investidores por eventual defasagem nas tarifas em relação ao paradigma cambial da época da realização do investimento; e

v) passado o período base de inserção do investimento e amortizados seus custos, o valor do "fundo" continuaria a ser revertido para o projeto de infraestrutura, só que mediante redução tarifária repassada aos consumidores que, dessa forma, teriam a compensação pelo acréscimo tarifário inicial.

O "fundo" poderia se revestir da forma jurídica de carteira administrada regulada pela Instrução CVM nº 558/2015, ou mesmo de fundo em sentido estrito regido pela Instrução CVM nº 555/2014, sendo o projeto de infraestrutura o investidor. Em ambos os casos permite-se a realização de investimentos no exterior, eventualmente necessários para a equalização cambial da carteira. E a estrutura regulamentar existente, com fiscalização da CVM, assegura regras básicas de governança e transparência. Assim como assegura o profissionalismo de gestor e parâmetros para sua atuação, inclusive em relação a aplicações de recursos no exterior.

Uma tal solução poderia ser implementada por alteração legislativa, de forma a se tornar obrigatória para áreas sensíveis de infraestrutura. Mesmo na falta disso, entretanto, pode ser eleita como modelo em licitações especificas, por iniciativa governamental, com mínimos ajustes na regulamentação setorial, quando existir. Nada na Lei de Licitações ou em outras leis específicas impede a imposição de adicional de preço nas tarifas, direcionado a fundo privado, nas condições mencionadas.

São ideias simples, mas talvez essa sua maior virtude. Afinal, depois de tantas complicações, econômicas, ideológicas e até emocionais, o país pode fazer bom uso de um pouco de simplicidade.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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