Those who know me well, know that I often turn to quotes from '80s and '90s comedies, as the best way to express complex thoughts in just a few words. In reading the introduction to the First Quarter 2022 Snapshot Sentiment Report from the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR), I couldn't help but think of Rosie Perez's character's classic quote from White Men Can't Jump: "Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose." There are so many factors influencing the real estate market generally, often with different impacts in different sectors, that on any given day the same group of real estate professionals might have wildly different opinions on both the state of the market and likely near-term trends. For example, the above-referenced report indicates that industrial's strong performance for the last year or so has now resulted in a small drop in investor sentiment for that sector, whereas the modest improvement in the office sector of late has driven a noticeable increase in investor sentiment for that sector. But, as an investor, when do you start betting based on a trend in investor sentiment rather than a trend in historical performance, as they start to diverge? It will be interesting to see how that plays out in the coming months...
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