On June 12, CMS' Office of the Actuary released its National Health Expenditure (NHE) projections for 2023–2032. CMS publishes these estimates of U.S. health spending and health insurance enrollment annually. Overall, CMS projects that between 2023 and 2032, average annual growth in NHE (5.6 percent) will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) (4.3 percent), resulting in an increase in health spending as a share of GDP from 17.3 percent in 2022 to 19.7 percent in 2032. This differential between growth in NHE and the GDP growth rate can be attributed to three factors: (1) the faster growth in health care prices relative to economy-wide price growth; (2) an aging population; and (3) increasing demand for health care relative to income growth.
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