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While providing guidance to Wall Street has always been the
domain and dance of the CFO, this year has been quite the
challenge. The market volatility alone has been creating forecast
accuracy havoc. Some companies have been implementing sophisticated
AI-aided tools to improve forecast accuracy with unclear results.
What makes things more interesting is the tone on earnings for
'22 was dampened earlier by the Russian invasion, supply chain
disruptions, and the COVID-19 Pandemic / Endemic barrage that
remains prevalent. Most CFOs continue to be conservative in
forecasting, albeit accuracy is challenging given the systemic
shocks to customers, supply chains, and labor. We continue to focus
on the macro-environmental impacts on forecast models while digging
into the micro impacts. The trusted excel model is still quite
handy... More to follow.
More than two years after the early waves
of the pandemic forced executives to toss out their forecasts,
finance chiefs are getting attuned to a barrage of challenges they
didn't see coming: the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions
against Russia, volatile stock and bond markets, new lockdowns in
China, continued supply-chain disruptions and the rapid rise in
inflation.
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