Last week, we reviewed the year-by-year data comparing the dissent rate at the Appellate Court to the percentage of divided civil decisions at the Supreme Court, investigating whether dissent below signals a higher likelihood of a divided decision. This week, we're looking at the data for the years 2005 through 2020, civil first.
In eight of the sixteen years, the dissent rate at the Appellate Court was higher than the divided decision rate at the Supreme Court: 2005, 2007-2011, 2015 and 2017. The rates were identical in 2020 – 21.875% dissent at the Appellate Court and divided decisions at the Supreme Court. In 2006, only 24.49% of cases at the Appellate Court had dissents, while 40.82% of those cases were divided at the Supreme Court. In 2012, 45% of cases had divided decisions at the Supreme Court and 30% had dissenters below. In 2013, 41.18% of Supreme Court cases had divided decisions, while 29.41% had dissenters below. In 2014, the numbers were still close – 22.22% divided at the Supreme Court, 14.81% at the Appellate Court. In 2016, 25% of cases were divided at the Supreme Court, while 17.86% were divided at the Appellate Court. In 2018, 36.36% of cases were divided at the Supreme Court, but 22.73% had dissenters below. In 2019, 29.41% of cases had dissenters at the Supreme Court, while 20.59% had dissents at the Appellate Court.
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