It's becoming more likely that the US Federal Reserve has managed an elusive soft landing, with overall inflation back near the Fed's long-term goal of 2% (from a peak of over 9%) without triggering a recession.
This appears against a backdrop of a steadily growing US economy, with:
- inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at an annualized 2.8%, and
- consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic output, increasing by 3.7%.
Barring unexpected shocks from the US election or other geopolitical events, we should expect to see another quarter-percentage point reduction in the benchmark interest rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this Thursday. A moderate reduction in interest rates will further help to fuel steady growth in the US economy.
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