ARTICLE
16 September 2024

Stepwise Risk Outlook: What We're Watching Today, September 13, 2024

SJ
Steptoe LLP

Contributor

In more than 100 years of practice, Steptoe has earned an international reputation for vigorous representation of clients before governmental agencies, successful advocacy in litigation and arbitration, and creative and practical advice in structuring business transactions. Steptoe has more than 500 lawyers and professional staff across the US, Europe and Asia.
Two astronauts from SpaceX took the first private sector-backed spacewalk and successfully conducted a number of mobility experiments, field testing the SpaceX-developed spacesuits.
Worldwide Strategy

What We're Watching Today is 1,353 words and an 8-minute read.

Global: SpaceX astronauts conduct spacewalk, probing bounds of commercial space travel

Two astronauts from SpaceX took the first private sector-backed spacewalk and successfully conducted a number of mobility experiments, field testing the SpaceX-developed spacesuits.

Our Take: Privatization of space travel and space science, long a topic of science fiction, can now be found in the non-fiction section. The Crew Dragon's mission included 36 experiments contributed by 31 different institutions from the US, Canada and Saudi Arabia. The SpaceX program has been very expensive, reportedly in the hundreds of millions of dollars. It will take decades to build out a space economy, but the key challenge will be de-risking technologies in order to draw private capital to completely support early-phase research and development.

Read More: Reuters, Nature, Yale University

Europe: New French government announces plans to tighten migration and asylum policy

Michel Barnier, the new French prime minister, announced plans to form a dedication Immigration Ministry and tighten asylum and migration policy.

Our Take: Prime Minister Barnier is still working to fill his cabinet and is signaling that he will work independently of President Macron, defending some key policies while staking out changes, including on immigration. Barnier will need to keep support from the far-right National Rally, as the government lacks a clear majority. Immigration policy is a central issue for the National Rally. More broadly, anti-immigration feelings are running high within EU member states. Germany just announced new plans to set up checks at land border crossings with all of its neighboring next week for six months to turn away irregular migrants. Berlin's plans are provoking questions and some criticism, as both Schengen rules and EU law enshrine the right to seek asylum and the principle of non-refoulement. There is a risk that other EU members will take similar actions, undermining the fragile consensus backing the new EU Migration Pact.

Read More: France24, Deutsche Welle, Politico

Middle East: Jordan Islamists win parliamentary seats amid anti-Israel sentiment

Jordan's Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, won significant gains in parliamentary elections after making opposition to the Israeli invasion of Gaza a centerpiece of its campaign.

Our Take: Jordan has maintained formal relations with Israel since 1994, a relationship that the country's monarchy has increasingly struggled to justify to the country's population, of which almost 60% originate from Palestine. The Islamic Action Front's electoral result – which secures 31 of 183 seats, an increase that nonetheless leaves the incumbent government's majority untouched – reflects popular frustration with Jordan's relationship with Israel. The results also reflect regional popular sentiment on Israel: a recent poll of Arab public opinion found that 89% of respondents were against normalization with Israel. Jordan's governmental stability is unlikely to be meaningfully shaken, however.

Read More: New York Times [paywall], Arab Center in Washington DC

Americas: Peruvian strongman Fujimori dies, leaving divisive legacy

Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, who was jailed until recently on human rights abuses charges, passed away on Wednesday at 86. Fujimori had recently announced his intention to seek reelection.

Our Take: While Fujimori successfully battled a recession and armed rebels in the 80s, his use of death squads against militants and military tanks to shut down Congress earned him prison time and a reputation among many Peruvians as an autocrat. His announcement that he would run for reelection sparked concerns that his campaign could spark new unrest or political division, not to mention renewed abuses in the case of a victory. Despite his death, his family remains a political force in the country; his daughter Keiko has run for president herself three times and his son Kenji has served in Congress.

Read More: AP, New York Times [paywall], BBC

Asia-Pacific: US President Biden to host Quad leaders for summit in Delaware

US President Joe Biden plans to host the leaders of fellow Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, countries Australia, India, and Japan this month for the final summit of his term in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.

Our Take: The upcoming Quad summit underscores the strategic importance that the Biden administration has given to building and strengthening US alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. By bringing together leaders from Australia, India, and Japan for one final summit before the end of the current administration, Washington hopes to highlight a united front in countering China's growing influence in the region, particularly in maritime security. The meeting is expected to produce concrete initiatives on health security and disaster response, further solidifying cooperation. While leadership changes in the US and Japan this year remain on the horizon, the personal nature of the summit signals Washington's aim to ensure continuity of the Quad's agenda as a cornerstone of US Indo-Pacific policy in the years to come.

Read More: CNN, Nikkei Asia [paywall], United States Institute of Peace

Africa: US declares support for Africa's UN Security Council aspirations

The American ambassador to the United Nations on Thursday announced that the US will support two permanent seats for African states on the UN Security Council (UNSC).

Our Take: Washington's support for two permanent African seats at the UNSC demonstrates a growing recognition of Africa's importance in global governance, though the White House did not endorse giving new permanent members the same veto power that the current five permanent members have. While the move aligns with broader calls to reform the Council to better reflect contemporary power dynamics, implementing such changes is likely to be complex. Nonetheless, direct US support for the change could strengthen Washington's relations with Africa and counter growing Chinese and Russian influence on the continent.

Read More: New York Times [paywall], Council on Foreign Relations

Trade & Compliance: US sanctions suppliers for Pakistan's ballistic missile program

The US State Department on Thursday sanctioned a Chinese research institute, several companies, and one individual that it accused of supplying Pakistan's ballistic missile program.

Our Take: The recent US sanctions on Chinese and Pakistani entities involved in missile technology transfers mark an increased focus on limiting proliferation, particularly in Pakistan's missile programs. Since becoming a nuclear state in 1998, Pakistan has received inconsistent reactions from Washington, though growing strategic competition with China may be influencing the recent move, given Beijing's long-standing ties with Islamabad. These sanctions could lead to heightened scrutiny and regulatory challenges for businesses involved in defense, technology, or international trade, with implications for supply chains as well, particularly those tied to China or Pakistan.

Read More: Reuters, US Department of State, Observer Research Foundation

Disruptive Technology: Data shows cyberattacks on US utilities soared 70% this year

Recent data from Checkpoint Research found that US utilities faced a nearly 70% increase in cyberattacks this year compared to the same period in 2023.

Our Take: The significant rise in cyberattacks on US utilities and power infrastructure highlights the growing vulnerability of critical infrastructure as the power grid expands and digitalizes. Outdated software and an increasing number of connection points, including new customers such as AI data centers, make utilities attractive targets. While no crippling attack has occurred yet, the risk of a coordinated cyberattack could disrupt essential services and cause significant financial losses, underscoring the urgent need for improved cybersecurity measures in the energy sector to prevent potentially catastrophic outcomes.

Read More: Reuters, International Energy Agency

Climate Change: California Governor Newsom declares state of emergency for uncontrolled wildfires raging in Southern California

As the Bridge Fire and Airport Fire expand rapidly, threatening multiple communities in the Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties, Governor Newsom declared a state of emergency.

Our Take: While this is fire season in California, the conditions are very dangerous. Evacuation orders are in effect for 34,000 residents with another 97,000 under evacuation warning. A wet winter followed by the hottest summer on record, drying out vegetation, has increased the severity of the wildfires this season. So far, 6.9 million acres have burned. California is issuing an air quality warning, with air quality indexes reflecting "very unhealthy" or "unhealthy" levels. Authorities recommend that anyone with heart disease, pregnant women, children, older adults and people with lung disease, including asthma, stay inside and avoid outdoor activity.

Read More: Axios, Scientific American

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