Global: Russia changes nuclear doctrine in warning to West
Russian President Putin stated that Russia could use nuclear weapons if struck by conventional weapons provided by another nuclear power, which Moscow would consider a joint attack on Russia.
Our Take: The announcement of the change in Russian nuclear doctrine takes place against the backdrop of the US and NATO member states debating whether to give Ukraine authority to us Storm Shadow missiles against targets deep in Russia. The US has been "considering" Ukraine's request, while signaling deep reluctance, while the UK and France back the Ukrainian request. On Wednesday, President Biden announced $8 billion in new military assistance that includes precision-guided glide bombs, but not giving permission to use to hit targets deeper in Russia. The US is taking heed of Russian warnings in recognition that Russian deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield would take the two nations to the brink of direct conflict, amid shifting deterrence strategies and nuclear doctrine in a high-risk test of political wills.
Read More: Reuters, Financial Times [paywall]
Europe: Six EU countries call for stronger enforcement against e-commerce platforms in a joint letter
Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland have called for stronger enforcement against e-commerce platforms not in compliance with the Digital Services Act (DSA) for Very Large Online Platforms.
Our Take: These EU countries are pressing for EU action against popular Chinese online marketplaces Temu and Shein. The EU opened an investigation last June, asking Temu and Shein to provide detailed information on how the companies have implemented DSA obligations design to protect consumers by curtailing manipulative techniques, providing traceability of traders on the platform, and providing transparency on platform operations. The DSA entered into force on February 1, 2024. Temu and Shein were required to respond to the EU request for information by July 12, 2024, and the joint letter by EU members is a signal that EU action is moving too slowly. Separately, the EU is considering plans to impose customs duties on cheap goods bought from Chinese retailers, with many online purchases currently not subject to customs duties because their value is under 150 euros. The EU investigation, which is in an early stage, and custom duties reforms risk adding to trade tensions between the EU and China over unfair business practices.
Read More: Euronews, European Commission, Reuters
Middle East: All-out war between Israel and Hizballah on the horizon
Israel called up more reservists and said it was readying troops for a ground invasion of Hizballah, all but cementing the prospect of all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed proxy militant group. At the same time, Israel distanced itself from a US-French ceasefire plan for the two groups.
Our Take: The full-scale war that Israel and Hizballah had been inching towards for months now seems imminent, spelling further destruction and a potential for more regional involvement. Prime Minister Netanyahu is likely seeking to deliver on promises to return northern Israelis to their homes, and to pivot away from what has become an intractable struggle to find hostages in Gaza. Hizballah is unlikely to be equipped to triumph against Israel, but it will have a home turf advantage, an advanced arsenal from Iran, and the benefit of regaining Lebanese popular support as it becomes a national protector.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], The Economist [paywall], New York Times [paywall]
Americas: Mexico accelerates militarization
Mexico's Senate voted to put the country's National Guard, previously under civilian control, under the purview of the military, another step towards militarization of previously civilian corners of Mexico's government, society and economy.
Our Take: Outgoing President Obrador has markedly increased the military's role in Mexican life, including putting the military in charge of the country's ports and a commercial airline. Critics see the slow transformation as a threat to Mexican democracy and human rights, although AMLO and his party Morena argue it is necessary to counter Mexico's very real crime problem.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], The Wilson Center, The Washington Post [paywall]
Asia-Pacific: Thailand legalizes same-sex marriage, allowing couples to wed starting in January
Thailand's marriage equality bill on Tuesday was officially written into law, allowing same sex couples to register their marriage beginning in January 2025, and making Thailand the third place in Asia to allow same-sex marriage, following Taiwan and Nepal.
Our Take: While Thailand's legalization of same-sex marriage marks a historic milestone, as the first country in Southeast Asia to do so, it also highlights ongoing social disparities, as tolerance has not always translated into full acceptance. The reform signals a potential shift in regional attitudes toward LGBTQ+ rights, countering the narrative that such protections are exclusive to the West. However, to truly close the gap between de jure recognition and de facto equality, activists call on Thailand to focus on embedding deeper protections across education, healthcare, and workplaces, ensuring long-term societal integration for LGBTQ+ individuals.
Read More: Associated Press, South China Morning Post [paywall], East Asia Forum
Africa: Sudan's army launches major offensive to retake nation's capital
Sudan's army on Thursday launched strikes in the country's capital Khartoum in its biggest operation to regain ground there since early on in its 17-month war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Our Take: The major offensive in Khartoum taken by Sudan's army signals a critical escalation in its conflict with the RSF, as both sides vie for control over strategic urban areas. The timing, ahead of General Burhan's UN address, suggests that the army is seeking to bolster its standing domestically and internationally. The intensifying conflict, particularly in Khartoum and Darfur, raises the risk of furthering the humanitarian catastrophe that has occurred due to the war, including famine and ethnic violence. For firms and foreign actors in the region, the escalation heightens operation risks and exacerbates regional instability, threatening to spill over into neighboring countries in North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Read More: Reuters, Al Jazeera
Trade & Compliance: US sanctions shipment of Iranian oil to Syria and East Asia
The US Treasury Department on Wednesday announced sanctioned on over a dozen entities and vessels concerning their involvement in shipping Iranian crude oil and liquid petroleum gas to Syria and East Asia on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hizballah.
Our Take: The latest US sanctions targeting entities involved in the shipping of Iranian oil on behalf of the IRGC and Hizballah underscore Tehran's utilization of its oil revenue to fund destabilizing activities in the Middle East and beyond. By cutting off critical supply chains, the US aims to disrupt these networks and reduce the financial resources available to Iran's proxies. These measures also raise compliance risks for global companies, particularly in shipping and finance, which may face secondary sanctions. Increasing the operational complexity for firms operating in the region, these sanctions highlight broader geopolitical tensions around Iran's regional influence.
Read More: Reuters, US Department of the Treasury
Disruptive Technology: FTC announces crackdown on deceptive AI practices
The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Wednesday announced actions on three business opportunity ventures and two companies it accused of utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a "deceptive" and unfair manner.
Our Take: The FTC's crackdown on "deceptive" AI practices accentuates the regulator's intent to hold businesses accountable for allegedly misleading AI claims. This action sends a clear message that existing laws will be rigorously enforced in the AI space, posing compliance risks for companies misrepresenting AI capabilities. As AI adoption grows, businesses may find that ensuring transparency in their AI-powered offering will increase their chances of avoiding legal scrutiny and maintaining consumer trust.
Climate Change: Record-breaking increase in Amazon wildfires
According to World Resources Institute, data from 2001-2023 on fires in the Amazon region shows that at least twice as much forest today is being burned, compared to 20 years ago.
Our Take: The fires are fed by a severe drought, extreme heat, and land clearing operations for agriculture. The wildfires are emitting record amounts of greenhouse gases, which is being picked up by the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, which is warning on degraded air quality across the South American continent.
Read More: Axios, World Resources Institute, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
ESG: Historic debt-for-nature swap takes place
Five African countries are working on what would be the world's first joint "debt-for-nature" swap, aiming to raise at least $2 billion to protect a coral-rich area of the Indian Ocean.
Our Take: Debt for nature swaps, in which indebted countries buy back debt at a reduced rate in exchange for promises to preserve nature, are becoming increasingly more popular. This deal was initially proposed in 2021 and aims to protect and restore some 2 million hectares of ocean ecosystems by 2030. The World Economic Forum estimates that if implemented successfully, debt-for-nature swaps could free up $100 billion to restore nature.
Read More: Reuters
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.