This issue of Global Trade Navigator is dedicated to distilling key themes from the America First Trade Policy announced on January 20, 2025, as part of President Trump's Day One agenda. The new trade policy presents a framework to introduce tariffs, renegotiate trade agreements, and expand the scope of federal regulations impacting foreign investment, export controls, and cross-border supply chains. No immediate tariffs have been announced or other actions instituted under this policy, but readers should watch this space. The administrative reviews required under this policy must be reported to President Trump by no later than April 1, 2025, and do not forestall the ability of the President to act unilaterally by executive order.
The five most immediate actions being scaffolded through the orders made in the new administration's trade policy include:
- Tariffs. Assessment of unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico, China and any other countries necessitating trade and national security measures to stem this national emergency. President Trump has threatened to leverage 25% tariffs under the national emergency umbrella as soon as February 1, 2025.
- USMCA. Initiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement's joint review procedures, which could provide the U.S. the ability to exit the agreement on June 30, 2026. One of the parting rules of the Biden administration established additional verification requirements for materials and goods claiming USCMA preferences and capped annual duty-free imports, which were scheduled to become effective on March 28, 2025. These regulations will be under a 60-day administrative review as part of the regulatory transition process.
- Reverse CFIUS. Examination of the Outbound Investment regulations known as "reverse CFIUS", to determine if the program sufficiently addresses the national security risks present from U.S. investments and business relationships outside the United States, and whether the program should be revised or pulled and replaced (presumably, with stronger controls). This program came into force on January 2, 2025, and blocks the ability of U.S. persons to invest in specific technologies with Chinese companies while requiring notice of other types of transactions.
- ICTS. Expansion of the connected vehicle regulations restricting imported technology and services from "countries of concern" to cover additional connected products. These regulations, known as the "Information and Communications Technology and Services" or ICTS, were recently finalized by the Biden administration. As currently written, the software for self-driving car technologies must be phased out as soon as the 2027 model year while the hardware for such technologies must be phased out by the 2029 model year.
- De minimis import exemptions. Assessment of the loss of revenue, counterfeiting and contraband drug risks created through the current $800 de minimis tariff exemption. In 2024, over 1 billion shipments into the U.S. claimed this exception. Just last week, CBP proposed rules that would restrict the types of products that could claim this exemption and impose additional documentation requirements on commercial shipments. There was no effective date set for these proposed changes.
Deep-dive administrative reviews are directed for key topics of U.S. international trade, including the U.S. export control network and possible loopholes for sensitive U.S. technologies, anti-dumping and countervailing duty regulations, the current set of steel and aluminum tariffs, and the current government supply chain restrictions on Buy American and Hire American. An entire section of this policy is dedicated to studying multiple facets of the U.S.'s economic relationships with the People's Republic of China. It also presents the possibility of rebranding at least part of U.S. Customs and Border Protection as the External
Numerous broader directives set the stage for additional changes over the next four years, including examining countries engaging in unfair trade practices, re-evaluating existing trade agreements to determine necessary revisions, finding new free trade agreements that expand foreign market access for U.S. companies, identifying key factors in the U.S.'s annual trade deficit, determining whether U.S. companies or individuals are being unfairly targeted by foreign taxes, and identifying countries manipulating currency valuation to create unfair competitive advantages. The prior Trump administration designated China as such in 2019. As of 2023, Treasury's currency manipulation watchlist included Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Germany.
Elsewhere, President Trump declared drug cartels as global trade organizations, creating the possibility of leveraging sanctions and blocking on the assets of cartel members through the Office of Foreign Asset Control.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
