What We’re Watching Today is 1,067 words and a 7-minute read.
Global
UN envoy urges lifting of sanctions following Assad's removal in Syria
Following President Bashar Assad's fall in Syria, a UN envoy on Sunday urged the swift removal of Western sanctions to help the country's new leadership and international community move forward.
Our Take: The push to lift sanctions on Syria underscores the international community’s urgency to stabilize the country following Assad’s ouster. However, the transitional government faces significant hurdles, namely the designation of leading rebel group Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) by the US and other powers, complicating diplomatic engagement and access to foreign aid. While the removal of sanctions could accelerate reconstruction and economic recovery, concerns about human rights, good governance, and inclusivity persist, leaving the transitional government with a task to prove its credentials to gain broader international support. The unfolding situation also raises questions about the role of key regional players and the timeline for achieving political normalization in Syria.
Read More: CBS News, UN News, Reuters [paywall]
Europe
Macron names new PM as governance crisis continues
French President Macron appointed centrist ally François Bayrou as prime minister in a bid to restore stability after the collapse of the shortest-serving government in modern French history.
Our Take: The new PM faces a litany of challenges, including cobbling together a stable government and getting a handle on France’s spiraling debt burden – all as European states look to regional leaders France and Germany, also dealing with internal crisis, to present a united front as President-elect Trump foreshadows changes to the US’ trade relationship with the EU and role in Ukrainian defense. Opposition leader Marine Le Pen is being viewed as a potential spoiler; it remains to be seen whether she will view the still very shaky Bayrou government as a further opportunity to undermine Macron, or whether she will seek further influence.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], Politico, Brookings Institution
Middle East
US among foreign powers aiming to shape post-Assad Syria
US Secretary of State Blinken said that the US is in direct contact with Syria’s rebel-led interim government, expressing hopes that the transitional government can quickly establish security.
Our Take: The US is just one of several foreign powers engaging with Syria’s leading rebel Islamist faction, HTS, which the US still considers a terrorist group, in hopes of shaping Syria’s post-Assad future or averting a new power vacuum and renewed civil conflict. Russia and Iran are mostly rushing to withdraw assets or salvage now-severed lines of illicit trade or information. Turkey is aiming to limit the influence of northern Kurdish forces. Israel is targeting military assets and staking territorial claims in a bid to neutralize the military threat. HTS has designated an interim prime minister, who has publicly taken control, but the military leaders of the group reportedly still pull the strings; plans for internal administration, new governance structures, or even elections are not yet clear.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Washington Post [paywall], New York Times [paywall]
Asia-Pacific
South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol impeached by parliament
South Korea's parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol for attempting to impose martial law, with the vote passing 204 to 85, including support from some ruling party lawmakers.
Our Take: Lawmakers from Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) reversed course after abstaining from the first impeachment vote after Yoon refused to step down out of his own volition. With Prime Minister Han Duck-soo now serving as interim leader, the government faces the dual challenge of maintaining domestic stability and addressing regional security concerns, including North Korea’s actions. As the Constitutional Court deliberates, the interim administration is working to reassure international partners and sustain economic confidence.
Read More: NPR, New York Times [paywall], Associated Press
Trade and Compliance
Canada vows strong retaliation if US enacts tariffs
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stated that Canada, including its provinces, will respond strongly if the new US administration imposes tariffs, following recent discussions with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and provincial premiers.
Our Take: The potential for trade tensions between the US and Canada to escalate poses significant risks to the deeply integrated North American economy. While Canada’s proposed countermeasures, including potential export taxes and restrictions on critical resources, aim to deter US tariffs, they also reveal divisions among Canadian provinces about the best course of action. US tariffs could disrupt key sectors such as energy, minerals, and electricity, impacting industries and consumers on both sides of the border. The ongoing standoff highlights the delicate balance of economic and diplomatic relations as the Trump administration’s protectionist stance reshapes cross-border dynamics.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Associated Press
Disruptive Technology
US must intensify efforts to impose penalties on cyber attackers, says Trump adviser
Following the Salt Typhoon hack targeting US telecom providers, Michael Waltz, who will serve as President-elect Donald Trump’s national security adviser, emphasized the need for harsher penalties for data theft, stressing improved cybersecurity measures.
Our Take: The Salt Typhoon hack highlighted persistent vulnerabilities in critical US infrastructure and the escalating threat posed by state-sponsored cyber actors. Calls for a stronger offensive posture and harsher penalties reflect a move toward more aggressive deterrence strategies, though questions remain over their feasibility and potential international repercussions. The hack’s scope, which included the targeting of sensitive communications, raises concerns about national security and the adequacy of current defenses. The fallout of this incident will likely serve as a catalyst for reforms in US cyber strategy under the incoming administration, with a focus on offensive capabilities and together protections for critical sectors.
Read More:Politico, Brookings Institution, Wilson Center
Climate Change
Canada sets new net-zero goals
Canada announced new climate goals targeting reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% to 50% by 2035, building on an established goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Our Take: Canada is required via the international Paris Agreement and its domestic Net Zero Emissions Accountability Act to set five-year national emissions reduction targets, and this new target will form the basis of its next Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution, due next year. However, the goal falls below the 50-55% ambition recommended by the government-appointed Net Zero Advisory Board, and may fall below Paris Agreement goals to limit global temperature increases to below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Despite existing measures, Canada’s emissions have yet to consistently decline as they have in the US and Europe, in large part due to Canada’s traditional energy sector.
Read More: ESG Today, Climate Home News
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