With the UK Government reeling from the defeat by a huge majority of Theresa May's Brexit deal, the UK continues deeper into a fog of Brexit uncertainty. The main future potential outcomes now appear to be:
- Leave with no deal, or Day One No Deal as some are labelling the scenario. Still the most prudent position to plan towards for businesses and governments alike, as the deadlock position remains;
- Return to Brussels and re-negotiate. This appears to be a likely immediate choice for the UK Government, possibly with some form of cross-party backing to ensure support for any future new deal;
- General election. Now a possibility, however remote, following Labour's no confidence motion on Tuesday evening. If successful, and a new government cannot be formed (this would have to be by coalition given the lack of majority of any single party), a General Election would be required to be held after 25 working days; or
- Another referendum, otherwise referred to as the "People's Vote"
However, current financial markets appear stable as the defeat was widely anticipated, regardless of the scale. Within the next few weeks, building towards the 29 March 2019 leave date, political change and movements toward a new or amended Brexit deal position (or any of the potential outcomes listed above) will gather pace and begin to transition from weekly changes to a day-to-day, and hour-to-hour basis. From a Channel Islands perspective, the unique position of the crown dependencies allows legislative change to take place very quickly and maintain certainty and stability in a sea of sweeping change.
In particular, as Jersey's Ready for Brexit week reaches its mid-point, the States of Jersey have been very clear on two points:
- Jersey is flexible and in an excellent position to react quickly from a legislative perspective to all types of Brexit; and
- Jersey is already in advanced stages of planning, legislation and agreement with both the UK and the EU.
Both islands are already well placed to react quickly and effectively to a no deal situation and to ensure minimal disruption for all types of business, while working closely with the Channel Islands' 20,000 strong financial services industry.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.