Can a State successfully overcome the public relations nightmare following a disastrous decision to expropriate the private property and business of international investors?
It depends on the Government.
What was the reason behind the decision? Was it for an internationally recognized, bona fide public purpose? Was an alternative approach fully explored? Were negotiations attempted?
Have funds been set aside to pay fair and prompt compensation?
Or, was sovereign force being used to deliberately deprive the investors of their property, abuse the legal process to frustrate their legitimate claims, make political capital and even try to obtain private gain?
In the first instance, international observers are likely to take little interest.
In the second, the State becomes a pariah.
The expropriation causes a breach of international treaties. It effectively stops further foreign direct investment. It invites censure and political response from other sovereign bodies and heightens further international scrutiny.
The sequence of expropriation of private property from foreign citizens, non-payment of compensation, international recognition of breached treaties and delays in allowing the legal process to reach an inevitable resolution within Antigua's own Laws and Constitution, has created an alarming climate in Antigua and Barbuda.
As this condition spans successive administrations by opposite political parties, the mantle of "rogue" State becomes more firmly secured, with all the negative baggage that entails.
Can the damage be limited?
It depends on the Government.
Practically, the State is faced with increasing costs, as the situation is allowed to linger without resolution. Legal and interest costs accruing on unpaid compensation become a severe issue, particularly when land prices fall or remain static.
Assuming the State has no intention of developing the property it has taken, it must look for another investor to take it off its hands.
This then becomes virtually impossible.
From the outset, the new entity is required to risk investment in a property that has already been expropriated through lengthy dispute and with its previous owners still waiting to settle their claim of constitutional right to compensation.
Now, it is faced with costs that inevitably become attached to the property and which propel prices beyond any developers' ROI boundaries.
With a world of choices before him, there is no practical inducement that a Government can offer an investor to pay the price of its own miscalculation.
It has long been argued that Governments, all Governments, should stay away from private enterprise, because by getting involved they not only intermeddle with the business of individual citizens but take risks with the public purse for which they have no authority.
Politically, it should also be noted that, despite diplomatic niceties, there is real pressure being currently exerted by the U.S. Government to bring about a prompt and proper solution to this matter, so that mutual concentration can be re-focused on the challenges and complexities of international relationships in the modern world.
So, how can the expropriation of the Half Moon Bay Resort by the Government of Antigua and Barbuda be resolved in these circumstances?
It depends on the Government.
It depends on the Antigua & Barbuda Government's acceptance of the facts, first among which is that every day of delay increases the cost of the solution in dollars and in consequences.
Backbone, pragmatism and statesmanlike behaviour are required.
There is no escape from a very public climb-down but the embarrassment can be diminished by recognition that the cost of expropriation is the price of previous folly.
For a mistake to be corrected, it must be admitted and paid for. It does not become a character trait unless the behaviour is continued.
Life does not offer "do-overs," only corrections. Initiatives cannot be cancelled but they can be reversed. Negotiations can be undertaken. In an improved climate, a solution can be found.
Will a new investor appear to assist in cushioning the financial consequences to the Government?
That, too, now depends on the Government of Antigua & Barbuda.
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