The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) controls 61% of seats in Uganda's parliament today, compared to nearly 70% in the last session. But this decline is largely symbolic, as President Yoweri Museveni continues to pull the levers of power, mostly unchecked. Whereas the rise of the National Unity Platform (NUP) initially appeared to threaten the president's supremacy, recent events surrounding alleged gifts from state house, point to Bobi Wine's waning influence over the opposition party. From until 2026 general elections, divisions within the NUP leadership are expected to weaken its effectiveness as the main opposition and allow the ruling NRM to continue to neutralise any opposition toward policymaking.

SIGNIFICANCE – MORAL LEADERSHIP

Finance Minister Matia Kasaija presented a USD13 billion budget to parliament on 14 June, and the priorities laid out for 2022/2023 include cutting the fiscal deficit from 7.3% to 3%, stimulating domestic food output to stem inflation and supporting the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. But that development was overshadowed when news broke on the same day that MPs from the ruling party and others had received payments from the president's office.

The payments were reportedly 'a token of appreciation' made to the lawmakers for approving a supplementary budget that they had previously rejected. Reports say this budget was first rejected because it included State House expenses that were described as 'classified'. NUP leader Kyagulanyi then summoned his party's MPs and instructed them to return their individual UGX40 million (USD10,668) cash gifts within 48 hours – but the MPs did not follow the directive. It signals a decline in Kyagulanyi's authority within the party since he gave up his own seat in parliament and unsuccessfully ran for president in 2021.

Kyagulanyi (also Bobi Wine) reinvented the NUP from a little-known party in 2020.1 The 40-year old captured the public imagination at the time – inspiring popular protests against Museveni who had held power since 19862. He then led the NUP to win the most seats by an opposition party in parliament and upstaged longtime opposition leader Kizza Besigye and his Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). However, Kyagulanyi's appeal began to wane as campaigns were over and he was out of parliament. His less radical NUP colleague, Mathias Mpuuga, subsequently became parliament's leader of opposition and the party's MPs settled into a moderate role.

Now, the party is being criticised for not participating in opposition protests against rising inflation, and Mpuuga's response is that "Ugandans should rise up against bad governance and stop questioning what opposition leaders are doing."3 Other disillusioned lawmakers point to an ongoing murder trial against two of their colleagues who have been imprisoned since last year. Police claim the two MPs organised machete killings to "sow fear among the population and make people hate the government."4 NUP supporters say the claim is false.

OUTLOOK – CHECKS AND BALANCE

General elections are due in 2026. Meanwhile, President Museveni will continue to unilaterally direct policymaking with little restraint on his powers. Kyagulanyi will struggle to regain his position as the NUP's moral leader, and the party will be unable to act effectively and cohesively while he and Mpuuga disagree on the party's direction. Declining popular support and a lack of clear leadership will likely disorient the party. This will allow the ruling NRM to continue to neutralise dissent toward policymaking – as it did in the past when Besigye's FDC was the main opposition.

Footnotes

1. Namely the National Unity, Reconciliation and Development Party

2. In Africa, only President Teodoro Obiang in Equatorial Guinea and President Paul Biya in Cameroon have been in office longer

3. Is NUP on a self-preserving mission? (June 2022). Daily Monitor.

4. Uganda opposition MPs accused in machete killings of elderly (September 2021). VOA.

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