Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on April 7, 2022.

Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 16 leave application decisions coming out on April 7, 2022. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 16 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Possible Contenders

Snaw-Naw-As-First Nation v Island Corridor Foundation, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 18% chance of getting leave.

James Allen Anderson v Diana Anderson

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.

Adrianna Costa Meloche v Michael Meloche

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.

Canadian National Railway Company v Canadian Transportation Agency, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Agence du revenu du Québec c 102751 Canada inc

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Denis Delisle c Sa Majesté la Reine

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Kyle Victor Ledesma v Her Majesty the Queen

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Michael Louis Hamer v Her Majesty the Queen

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Elliot Held, et al v District of Sechelt, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

Kenzie Financial Investments Ltd., et al v Alvarez & Marsal Canada Inc., in its capacity as the Receiver and Trustee in Bankruptcy of Arres Capital Inc.

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Moms Stop the Harm Society, et al v Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Alberta

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Raymond Tanti v Sharon Joseph, et al

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Timothy Barth v Iffat Ritter

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Bank of Montreal v Attorney General of Canada

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Eugene Seymour v Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada (Canadian Intellectual Property-Rights Office)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Mirza Nammo v TD Meloche Monnex Insurance Company

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.