Vietnam: 新規PPP関連法が立てうる、ベトナムのインフラ開発への道筋

インフラというボトルネックに、ベトナムの急成長が直面している。政府には、今まさに必要な道路、鉄道、トンネルに資金を投下できるほどの予算がない。そこで専門家が目を向け始めているのは、民間セクターである。

この制約がある以上、非国家セクターの資金を輸送インフラ開発のため継続的に活用することが今すぐ必要となる。アジア開発銀行(ADB)によれば、2015年から2020年までの間のインフラへの投資のため、ベトナムは最大170億米ドルを必要とするだろうとのことである。

近年、ベトナム政府は官民連携(PPP)プログラムの下で投資プロジェクトに透明性を与えるよう進めてきた。PPPは、政府機関と民間投資家が協同してなす投資の一形態であり、インフラの建設、修復、運営、並びに管理、及び公共サービスの提供のために行われる。政府はPPPにより、開発目標達成のため民間セクターの効率性と専門性を活用することができる。

そうはいっても、そうしたプロジェクトの持続的な実施を阻む欠点や限界があり、現状で名乗りを上げるのに投資家は慎重を期している。

投資を勧奨する政令が提出されてきてはいる。しかし、その条件は魅力的とはいえず、そのようなプロジェクトに必要な柔軟性がないとの批判もある。PPP投資活動の主な規制は以前、PPP投資に関する政令15/2015/ND-CP号及び入札法の実施指針である政令30/2015/ND-CP号であった。

この国は、1990年から2016年までに総額162憶米ドルにも及ぶ84件のPPPプロジェクトを実施してきている。うち79%はエネルギー関連のものであった。 一方、2011年のPPPパイロットプログラムが制定されて以来、この法的枠組みを利用した新規PPPプロジェクトは一切登録されていない。

政府は最近、政令15/2015を改正し、ベトナムにおけるPPPプロジェクトの分野、投資条件、手続を特定した政令63/2018(政令63)を発行した。この新たな政令により、PPPプロジェクトにおける投資家の資本比率が20%にまで引き上げられる。政令63は2018年の6月に施行された。

これで十分といえるか

BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)方式とBT(Build-Transfer)方式のプロジェクトに対する調査・監査結果によれば、そのほとんどにおいて、投資家選定の際の入札が限定され、低い競争性と透明性の欠如を招いたとのことである。また、プロジェクトの通知は未だにオープンな方法で実施されていない。

同時に、プロジェクト実施の管理は非効率的であり、建設作業の低質化等の様々な問題を引き起こしている。

これらの問題に対応して投資を促進するため、ベトナム国会は政府に、上記のような難点や法的制限を取り払うようなPPP関連法を作るよう求めた。

PPP関連法の成功に必要な3要素

  • 明確なリスク共有メカニズム

当局は未だ、政府がデベロッパーのため一定の最低収益を保証し、それに至らない場合に補填するようなリスク共有メカニズムを、明確に打ち出してきてはいない。この点は、プロジェクトがしばしば重大なリスクを伴うインフラの場合には特に重要である。規制の明確さにより投資家の信頼を得られるのではないだろうか。

現状のモデルでは、ほとんどのリスクを民間セクターに転嫁してしまっている。民間の投資家や事業者の誘致には、透明性のある政策枠組みと公平なリスク分配が鍵である。同様に、明確に定義されたプロジェクトの射程と期待できる金銭的な利益の適切な保証を伴った魅力的な取引のストラクチャーによって、PPPへの参加が奨励されるものと思われる。

  • 為替レート保証

長期的な融資は外貨によってなされるものの、ベトナムのインフラプロジェクトの収益は現地通貨ベトナムドンによる。これだと、プロジェクトの収益性に負の影響をもたらす。新たなPPP関連法を成功に導くには、長期的な建設プロジェクトの中で投資家が同等の交換レートを確保できるよう、政府による兌換保証メカニズムを盛り込む改善が必要となろう。

海外への外貨送金の制限も縮小される必要があろう。

こうした障害や通貨変動のリスクは、投資家の信頼に大きな影響を与える。これらを取り除くことが、この国の継続的前進に必要な種類のプロジェクト誘致に重要であろう。

  • 金銭的インセンティブ

典型的な長期投資であるインフラプロジェクトには、投資家に巨大な建築に必要な20年から30年もの間の関与をさせるため、対価としての追加のインセンティブや収益の保証が必要となろう。

このリスクを相殺するために、政府は開発の波及的効果の一部を投資家に報いることを考えてもよいだろう。インセンティブがあれば、収益が交通の流れや将来の予測不可能な状況に依存するといった、インフラ開発に内在的な不確実性を減らすことができるだろう。

要するに、やる気のある投資家の誘致にベトナムが必要なのは、信頼できる政策及び規制、加えて投資家の信頼を得られるようなPPPに特化した政府部門といった、透明性、公平性、予測可能性を確保できる枠組みである。

ライフサイクルコスト、安全性、レジリエンス(強靭性)、そして環境への影響といったその他の要素も、考慮される必要がある。

ベトナムのインフラ開発への需要は揺るぐまい。しかし、現状の立法状況が実現可能または収益性のあるPPPプロジェクトに繋がるとはいえない。PPP関連法の上述のような点をクリアにすれば、透明性を向上し、この国に目を向けている事業体のリスクを減らし、もって状況の改善が見込めるだろう。

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