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Financial markets started 2015 in cautious mood. Worries about deflation in Europe, weakness in emerging markets and geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Ukraine were to the fore. Those risks remain, but lately financial markets have been more focussed on the good economic news from the US and the euro area.

A discussion last week with Deloitte's economists in New York left me feeling even more upbeat about the American economy. My colleagues think the US will grow by around 3.6% this year, a sharp acceleration from last year's rate of 2.4%. A 3.6% growth rate would be the fastest since 2004 and would put the US at the top of the league of growth among industrialised nations.

Much of the good news comes as a result of an improving jobs market and lower oil prices. In the last 3 months the US economy has created one million new jobs, the best tally since 1997. At 5.7% US unemployment is among the lowest in the OECD. With 5 million job vacancies there is plenty of scope for unemployment to fall further this year.

All of this points to a much-needed recovery in wages. A number of US retailers, including Walmart, have already announced increases in wage rates. Coupled with an energy-induced collapse in inflation – the overall price level has fallen by 0.1% in the last year – and the scene looks set for good gains in spending power and a mini boom in US consumer spending. Households certainly seem in the mood to spend, with consumer confidence at the highest level in eight years.

Having spent years warning of the risks to US growth the US Federal Reserve is sounding more positive. Central Bankers are never euphoric, but last week the Fed's Chairwomen, Janet Yellen, said there were now reasons "to feel good about the US economic outlook".

The US economy started the year in good shape and has got better still. The change in prospects for the euro area economy, albeit from a low base, is perhaps more striking.

The European Central Bank was late to join the Quantitative Easing party, launching its programme in January, but it already has worked some of its magic. Export prospects are being helped by a weaker euro. European equities have rallied strongly, with the German and French markets up 16% so far this year. Buying euro area equities is suddenly all the rage among institutional fund managers.

Business confidence, measured by the German Ifo index and the Purchasing Managers index, has perked up. Unemployment is falling, albeit in some countries from very, very high levels. Lower prices, especially for energy and petrol, are boosting consumer spending power, just as they are in the US and UK. Monetary easing is having an effect. Banks report that demand for credit from households and consumers, a good lead indicator for future growth, is rising.

None of this points to stagnation or renewed recession. Agreed, we are looking at pretty anaemic growth rates in the euro area, with the region as a whole posting growth of perhaps 1.4% this year. But in economics the direction of change matters, and in the case of the euro area the direction is up.

As always plenty of things could go wrong. But the latest data confirm that the most likely outcome is for growth in America and Europe to accelerate in 2015.

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