In the run up to the referendum on Scottish Independence on Thursday 18 September, an industry expert, Sir Ian Wood, has raised concerns over the Scottish Government's predictions for North Sea Oil recovery contained in its white paper, 'Scottish Future'.
The white paper estimates that there are up to 24 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves remaining in the North Sea area, forming a key part of the Government's funding strategy and plans for an independent Scotland.
However, in a recent interview with Energy Voice, Sir Ian claims that Scotland's oil reserves have been "massively overestimated" and the prediction that 24 billion barrels remain in the North Sea is "45% to 65% too high". Based on new research, Sir Ian estimated that on a best case basis, there remains between "15 billion and 16.5 billion barrels."
Sir Ian also warned that given Scotland's mature offshore oil and gas basin with depleting reserves, Scotland "will be down to very low levels of production by 2050 – probably less than 250,000 barrels per day, about a sixth of our current level."
If Sir Ian's forecast is correct, it raises an interesting question regarding the future of Scotland's energy supply in the medium to long term. Will Scotland choose to embrace shale gas an alternative form of supply if sufficient reserves can be found, or will Scotland be forced to import energy from abroad at a higher cost? Only time will tell.
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