It was possibly a sign of the depth and ferocity of the recession that there has been such reluctance to acknowledge that things might just, with a fair wind, be on the up. It's only recently that most commentators have broadly agreed that, with a few remaining caveats, the economy seems to be slowly but surely getting to a healthier place.

The nervousness is understandable. Even for those who have lived through previous recessions, the 2008-2013 downturn will be one to be studied by economics students for decades to come. However, the spectre of another recession has been kept at bay for long enough now that it is no longer restraining businesses' growth ambitions.

Our most recent CFO survey, which each quarter canvasses the sentiment of senior finance professionals across UK business, revealed that only 16 per cent think the UK is at risk of falling back into recession, down from 40 per cent a year ago. This confidence coincides with the news that 80 per cent – the most since the crisis began – say that banks offer an attractive source of credit.

Our CFO report also suggests that businesses are thinking about investing from ever healthier balance sheets and taking a more positive attitude to risk.

Of course, businesses may well feel more optimistic when they're trading with the emerging powerhouses of the BRIC economies and the phenomenal wealth of the major Arab nations, but consumers don't have that option - what they feel is less money in their pockets, so they cut out discretionary purchases, which puts pressure on retailers and that leads to pressure on other parts of the economy.

But even here there is a story : the most recent Retail Sales Index for Scotland showed that consumers are buying again: retail sales volumes were up 1.1% between July-September 2013, and that was an increase in value of 3.3% on the same period last year. That's not as high as the comparable figures for the rest of the UK, where the last quarter's volume growth reached 1.6%, but it's encouraging nonetheless.

Nothing in economics is ever unanimous, so there are other commentators who maintain that a consumer-led recovery isn't sufficiently balanced to provide the long-term growth which will encourage fund-raising and investment.

So should we be optimistic? I'd give that a qualified 'yes'. We're seeing more in the way of positive indicators than we've seen for a while, and the businesses I speak to are willing to consider the kind of investment decisions they haven't looked at in recent years.

The qualification? It is undoubtedly early days, so to relax and think the job is done would be a mistake. We're in good shape to get back on an even keel over the next couple of years, which means all of us need to not lose sight of some basic principles: proper cost control, manageable growth, and a considered approach to risk. Not quite the time to push the boat out yet!

What other factors should Scottish businesses consider?

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