We expect the Trump administration to issue a new Executive
Order ("EO") to address the travel ban for countries
"of concern" and moratorium on refugee admissions. While
we have not yet seen a copy or final confirmation of the time for
signature, we include the most likely scenario below:
The president will likely sign the new EO as early as Monday,
March 6, 2017.
The administration will likely treat the new EO as one that
supersedes the prior executive order, although some reports,
including from the White House press secretary, have been ambiguous
as to whether the administration will continue to defend the prior
executive order in court actions on a "dual track."
Briefing on the prior executive order and the halt on its travel
ban and refugee moratorium stemming from the US District Court in
Washington's decision is due to the Ninth Circuit on March
With regard to exemptions from the travel ban, we expect the
new EO to:
Almost certainly exempt lawful permanent residents
("green" card holders or other persons lawfully granted
residency but who have not yet received their "green"
cards) from the travel ban;
Likely exempt persons from the banned countries who hold a
passport from another unrestricted country from the travel ban;
Possibly exempt previously admitted visa holders with valid,
nonimmigrant status from the travel ban.
With regard to the countries included in the travel ban, we do
not expect any new countries to be added to the seven original
countries – Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and
Yemen. There have been some reports that Iraq may be dropped from
the list, but we have heard no official verification of that
With regard to refugee admissions, the Syrian refugee
provisions for an indefinite ban will likely be dropped, such that
any moratorium on refugee admissions will have the same time
limitations regardless of country of origin. We expect that any
blanket preference for admission for refugees fleeing from
religious persecution will be dropped. We also expect the volume of
refugee admissions for this fiscal year (which will continue
through September 30, 2017) to be capped at 50,000 (versus the
current ceiling of 110,000, which was set by the former
In terms of the time span of the travel ban, we anticipate the
ban would continue through the originally sought 90th day of April
27, 2017. According to the prior executive order, the
administration allowed for the possibility of the ban continuing if
any of the banned countries did not supply data sufficient to
screen incoming nationals effectively, based on a mandated
assessment by the secretary of homeland security in consultation
with the secretary of state and director of national intelligence.
We do not know at this point whether this potentially indefinite
elongation of the ban will be included in a new EO.
We expect there will be a phase-in period of an estimated seven
days, which will allow for travelers affected by the ban to return
to the United States from abroad if needed.
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Mayer Brown article provides information and comments on legal
issues and developments of interest. The foregoing is not a
comprehensive treatment of the subject matter covered and is not
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