United States: Immigrant Visa Processing Changes – EB2 & EB3 India And China Move Forward – Visa Office On Priority Dates, Demand, And Predictions

Last Updated: March 16 2016
Article by Alka Bahal

In our continuing series of reports, Charles ("Charlie") Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers' Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent "check-in with Charlie" (March 10, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the April 2016 Visa Bulletin and provides his projections for monthly final action date movement through the first calendar quarter of 2016.

Final Action Date Movements Consistent with Prior Predictions. The Final Action Dates in the April 2016 Visa Bulletin are consistent with Charlie's predictions last month (see below). In February, Charlie predicted that we would continue to see forward movement of up to five months in EB-2 and EB-3 China, and in April, EB-2 China will advance one month and EB-3 China will advance one and a half months. This modest advancement is attributable to an increase in I-485 cases in these categories coming to completion.

Charlie indicates that he has limited to no visibility into immigrant visa demand at USCIS until USCIS completes adjudication of an I-485 and requests a visa number. The difference in USCIS processing times at various offices makes it difficult to predict future demand and thus, difficult to adjust the Final Action Dates in such a way as to avoid volatility over the course of the fiscal year. For example, when the February Final Action Dates were announced in early January, USCIS reported 400 India EB-2 applicants who were eligible for final action, but by the end of February, USCIS had requested an additional 300 of these numbers. When an abrupt increase in demand such as this occurs, it is impossible to know whether it represents a sustained increase in demand in that category, whether it is the result of preference category upgrades or downgrades, or whether it merely represents a one-time reallocation of adjudication resources. Additional transparency and data analytics into pending I-485s would be helpful, and it is hoped that USCIS' use of the Dates for Filing will eventually provide such insight.

Although it is imperfect, Charlie must make assumptions regarding upcoming demand based on the available data and his prior experience in an effort to stabilize Final Action Date movements. Charlie prefers to advance the Final Action Dates conservatively in the hope of avoiding a retrogression later in the fiscal year, especially in categories that are subject to upgrades and downgrades. Unfortunately the need to generate sufficient demand to use all numbers available under the annual limits often requires aggressive forward movement of the dates. This is the case with the EB-3 Worldwide cut-off date which has advanced 16 months in the past year, and is only one month behind today's calendar date.

Forward movement in the EB-3 China Final Action Date has been slow due to concerns that EB-3 downgrade cases (from EB-2 China) may soon come to completion and result in a spike in demand in that category.

April movement in the Indian employment-based categories is also consistent with Charlie's predictions last month. The EB-2 India Final Action Date will advance less than one month in April, moving to November 8, 2008. Forward movement in this category could be slower than originally expected due to increasing demand in this category which can be attributed to upgrades from EB-3 India. Additionally, EB-1 Worldwide usage continues at a steady pace, making it unclear how many numbers might be available to fall down for potential use in EB-2 India. This should become clearer in the coming months as additional demand data becomes available. The EB-3 India Final Action Date will also advance only three weeks to August 8, 2004.

Announcing the NVC EB-5 Investor Assistance Desk. The April Visa Bulletin also included an announcement regarding the new National Visa Center (NVC) EB-5 Investor Assistance Desk. The NVC has created a dedicated email address (NVCeb5@state.gov) to address EB-5 inquiries. This email box will be staffed with officers who are knowledgeable in EB-5 matters in an effort to improve customer service.


As we did not post Charlie's predictions from last month, here are his February 2016 predictions:

EB-2 and EB-3 China. Final action dates for EB-2 and EB-3 China will continue to advance in March. EB-2 China will advance five months from March 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012. Charlie believes that there is potential for EB-2 China to continue to advance monthly at this same rate. EB-3 China will advance more dramatically in March, from October 1, 2012 to June 1, 2013, and Charlie believes that this category has the potential to continue to advance five months each month. However, it is extremely important to remember that changes in USCIS demand patterns could drastically alter cut-off date movement and require corrective action at some point.

Charlie is watching these two categories and the interplay between them closely. In the February Bulletin, the EB-3 China final action date was seven months ahead of EB-2 China. In March, the final action date for EB-3 China will be ten months ahead of the EB-2 China final action date. Over the past two years, when the final action date for EB-3 China advanced beyond EB-2 China, EB-2 applicants responded by filing new I-140s to downgrade to EB-3, thus shifting the demand from EB-2 to EB-3. The surge in EB-3 demand slowed the advancement of the cut-off date and ultimately led to retrogression of that category. Although Charlie expects a similar pattern this year, significant EB-3 China demand has not yet materialized.

Note that while the filing dates for EB-2 and EB-3 India have not changed since last month (they remain at July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2005 respectively), the filing date for EB-2 China will advance five months (from January 1, 2013 to June 1, 2013) and the filing date for EB-3 China will advance 19 months (from October 1, 2013 to May 1, 2015). Charlie indicated that EB-3 China usage is split evenly between consular filings and adjustment of status filings at USCIS. If USCIS were to permit adjustment of status filings for EB-3 and EB-2 China, it may help generate sufficient demand to balance out the final action dates in both of these categories.

EB-2 India. A fair amount of demand is starting to materialize in EB-2 India, including EB-3 upgrades. This is starting to slow the advancement of the final action date for EB-2 India, which will advance only one and on-half months in March (from August 1, 2008 to October 15, 2008). Charlie expects this category to advance at a rate of up to three months. When EB-1 and EB-2 Worldwide demand is assessed in June, more numbers may fall down to this category which could impact its movement.

EB-5 China. Charlie predicts that EB-5 China will continue to advance slowly and at a rate which would avoid the need for a retrogression.


You may access the April 2016 Visa Bulletin here and the March 2016 Visa Bulletin here.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

To print this article, all you need is to be registered on Mondaq.com.

Click to Login as an existing user or Register so you can print this article.

Alka Bahal
In association with
Related Video
Up-coming Events Search
Font Size:
Mondaq on Twitter
Register for Access and our Free Biweekly Alert for
This service is completely free. Access 250,000 archived articles from 100+ countries and get a personalised email twice a week covering developments (and yes, our lawyers like to think you’ve read our Disclaimer).
Email Address
Company Name
Confirm Password
Mondaq Topics -- Select your Interests
 Law Performance
 Law Practice
 Media & IT
 Real Estate
 Wealth Mgt
Asia Pacific
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
United States
Worldwide Updates
Check to state you have read and
agree to our Terms and Conditions

Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement

Mondaq.com (the Website) is owned and managed by Mondaq Ltd and as a user you are granted a non-exclusive, revocable license to access the Website under its terms and conditions of use. Your use of the Website constitutes your agreement to the following terms and conditions of use. Mondaq Ltd may terminate your use of the Website if you are in breach of these terms and conditions or if Mondaq Ltd decides to terminate your license of use for whatever reason.

Use of www.mondaq.com

You may use the Website but are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the content and articles available (the Content). You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these terms & conditions or with the prior written consent of Mondaq Ltd. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information about Mondaq.com’s content, users or contributors in order to offer them any services or products which compete directly or indirectly with Mondaq Ltd’s services and products.


Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published on this server for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from this server.

The documents and related graphics published on this server could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time.


Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including what sort of information you are interested in, for three primary purposes:

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, newsletter alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our information providers who provide information free for your use.

Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) do not sell or provide your details to third parties other than information providers. The reason we provide our information providers with this information is so that they can measure the response their articles are receiving and provide you with information about their products and services.

If you do not want us to provide your name and email address you may opt out by clicking here .

If you do not wish to receive any future announcements of products and services offered by Mondaq by clicking here .

Information Collection and Use

We require site users to register with Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to view the free information on the site. We also collect information from our users at several different points on the websites: this is so that we can customise the sites according to individual usage, provide 'session-aware' functionality, and ensure that content is acquired and developed appropriately. This gives us an overall picture of our user profiles, which in turn shows to our Editorial Contributors the type of person they are reaching by posting articles on Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) – meaning more free content for registered users.

We are only able to provide the material on the Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) site free to site visitors because we can pass on information about the pages that users are viewing and the personal information users provide to us (e.g. email addresses) to reputable contributing firms such as law firms who author those pages. We do not sell or rent information to anyone else other than the authors of those pages, who may change from time to time. Should you wish us not to disclose your details to any of these parties, please tick the box above or tick the box marked "Opt out of Registration Information Disclosure" on the Your Profile page. We and our author organisations may only contact you via email or other means if you allow us to do so. Users can opt out of contact when they register on the site, or send an email to unsubscribe@mondaq.com with “no disclosure” in the subject heading

Mondaq News Alerts

In order to receive Mondaq News Alerts, users have to complete a separate registration form. This is a personalised service where users choose regions and topics of interest and we send it only to those users who have requested it. Users can stop receiving these Alerts by going to the Mondaq News Alerts page and deselecting all interest areas. In the same way users can amend their personal preferences to add or remove subject areas.


A cookie is a small text file written to a user’s hard drive that contains an identifying user number. The cookies do not contain any personal information about users. We use the cookie so users do not have to log in every time they use the service and the cookie will automatically expire if you do not visit the Mondaq website (or its affiliate sites) for 12 months. We also use the cookie to personalise a user's experience of the site (for example to show information specific to a user's region). As the Mondaq sites are fully personalised and cookies are essential to its core technology the site will function unpredictably with browsers that do not support cookies - or where cookies are disabled (in these circumstances we advise you to attempt to locate the information you require elsewhere on the web). However if you are concerned about the presence of a Mondaq cookie on your machine you can also choose to expire the cookie immediately (remove it) by selecting the 'Log Off' menu option as the last thing you do when you use the site.

Some of our business partners may use cookies on our site (for example, advertisers). However, we have no access to or control over these cookies and we are not aware of any at present that do so.

Log Files

We use IP addresses to analyse trends, administer the site, track movement, and gather broad demographic information for aggregate use. IP addresses are not linked to personally identifiable information.


This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that Mondaq (or its affiliate sites) are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of these third party sites. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this Web site.

Surveys & Contests

From time-to-time our site requests information from users via surveys or contests. Participation in these surveys or contests is completely voluntary and the user therefore has a choice whether or not to disclose any information requested. Information requested may include contact information (such as name and delivery address), and demographic information (such as postcode, age level). Contact information will be used to notify the winners and award prizes. Survey information will be used for purposes of monitoring or improving the functionality of the site.


If a user elects to use our referral service for informing a friend about our site, we ask them for the friend’s name and email address. Mondaq stores this information and may contact the friend to invite them to register with Mondaq, but they will not be contacted more than once. The friend may contact Mondaq to request the removal of this information from our database.


This website takes every reasonable precaution to protect our users’ information. When users submit sensitive information via the website, your information is protected using firewalls and other security technology. If you have any questions about the security at our website, you can send an email to webmaster@mondaq.com.

Correcting/Updating Personal Information

If a user’s personally identifiable information changes (such as postcode), or if a user no longer desires our service, we will endeavour to provide a way to correct, update or remove that user’s personal data provided to us. This can usually be done at the “Your Profile” page or by sending an email to EditorialAdvisor@mondaq.com.

Notification of Changes

If we decide to change our Terms & Conditions or Privacy Policy, we will post those changes on our site so our users are always aware of what information we collect, how we use it, and under what circumstances, if any, we disclose it. If at any point we decide to use personally identifiable information in a manner different from that stated at the time it was collected, we will notify users by way of an email. Users will have a choice as to whether or not we use their information in this different manner. We will use information in accordance with the privacy policy under which the information was collected.

How to contact Mondaq

You can contact us with comments or queries at enquiries@mondaq.com.

If for some reason you believe Mondaq Ltd. has not adhered to these principles, please notify us by e-mail at problems@mondaq.com and we will use commercially reasonable efforts to determine and correct the problem promptly.