McDermott Will & Emery Senior Advisor Jon Decker updates a state-by-state examination of the 33 U.S. Senate election races in 2012. Since the last forecast seven months ago, Jon's prediction on the status of several races has shifted, and Democrats appear to have an edge. Prior to joining McDermott, Jon was the White House correspondent for Reuters Television and he has been a member of the White House Press Corps since 1995. The information expressed in this piece contains the author's predictions (not the Firm's), which are based on current information and forecasting, and are not intended to be an endorsement of any candidate.
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With just three weeks until election day, the battle for control of the U.S. Senate is in the homestretch. Since the last forecast, the map has changed dramatically, with Democrats showing a bit of momentum. As a reminder, Democrats currently maintain a slim 53–47 majority in the upper chamber. Chances of a Republican takeover appear to be slipping away, however.
In the 2012 cycle, there are 33 Senate races on the ballot. Twenty-three of those are currently held by Democrats; 10 are for open seats. As things stand, there are eight races that can be considered truly competitive.
What follows is an updated analysis and forecast of each of those Senate races. Although three weeks is an eternity in politics, this is an educated forecast based on current information as to the way the Senate map would look if the Presidential election were held today.
|
State |
Prediction |
|
Arizona |
Open seat, leans Republican (Six-term Rep. Jeff Flake is expected to beat Democrat Richard Carmona and retain the seat now held by Sen. Jon Kyl) |
|
California |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Dianne Feinstein is expected to easily win her fourth full term in the U.S. Senate) |
|
Connecticut |
Open seat, toss-up(Three-term Rep. Chris Murphy is running even with Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, in this Democratic-leaning state) |
|
Delaware |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Tom Carper is expected to be re-elected to serve his third term) |
|
Florida |
Leans Democrat (Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson should beat back a challenge from Republican Rep. Connie Mack IV) |
|
Hawaii |
Open seat, leans Democrat (Thanks in part to a large turnout for Hawaiian native President Obama, Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono should edge out former two-term Republican Gov. Linda Lingle) |
|
Indiana |
Toss-up(A seat that should be firmly in the Republican column is up for grabs, and Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly of South Bend appears to have momentum against Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock) |
|
Maine |
Open seat, likely Democrat pickup (In the race to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe, popular former Independent Gov. Angus King has a commanding lead in the polls; King will likely caucus with Democrats) |
|
Maryland |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Ben Cardin will easily win his second term) |
|
Massachusetts |
Toss-up(Democrats are betting that former consumer finance watchdog Elizabeth Warren can take down Republican Sen. Scott Brown) |
|
Michigan |
Likely Democrat (Sen. Debbie Stabenow is still the favorite to beat former Congressman Pete Hoekstra, despite the state's economic morass) |
|
Minnesota |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running far ahead in the polls against Republican State Rep. Kurt Bills and appears to be a lock for re-election) |
|
Mississippi |
Safe Republican (Sen. Roger Wicker should win comfortably against his Democratic challenger Albert N. Gore Jr.) |
|
Missouri |
Toss-up (Republican Rep. Todd Akin was expected to beat Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill before his comments on "legitimate rape;" now, McCaskill appears to have an edge) |
|
Montana |
Toss-up (Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg are waging one of the most competitive Senate races in the country) |
|
Nebraska |
Open seat, likely Republican pickup (Polls consistently show State Sen. Deb Fischer, who upset two better-known Republicans in the primary, beating Democratic former Sen. Bob Kerrey, who hasn't been on a Nebraska ballot since 1994) |
|
Nevada |
Leans Republican (Polls give the edge to interim Republican Sen. Dean Heller in a tight race over Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, who is the subject of a Congressional ethics investigation) |
|
New Jersey |
Likely Democrat (Senator Bob Menendez, who takes nothing for granted, is an almost certain lock to win re-election) |
|
New Mexico |
Open seat, leans Democrat (In a race to fill the open seat of retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman, most polls show Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich with a consistent lead over Republican ex-Rep. Heather Wilson) |
|
New York |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is expected to cruise to victory and win her first full six-year term in the U.S. Senate) |
|
North Dakota |
Open seat, toss-up (To the surprise of many, former State Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp is running even with Republican Rep. Rick Berg in a race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad) |
|
Ohio |
Leans Democrat (Sen. Sherrod Brown has a slight edge over 33-year-old Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who has proved remarkably adept at fundraising) |
|
Pennsylvania |
Likely Democrat (Sen. Bob Casey appears likely to win a second term against businessman Tom Smith) |
|
Rhode Island |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is a lock to win re-election) |
|
Tennessee |
Safe Republican (Republican Sen. Bob Corker, who is growing in stature in the Senate, is expected to easily beat back a challenge from Democrat Mark Clayton) |
|
Texas |
Open seat, safe Republican (Republican Ted Cruz should easily beat Democratic State Representative Paul Sadler in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison) |
|
Utah |
Safe Republican (Sen. Orrin Hatch is expected to easily retain his seat in this solid-red Republican state, beating back a challenge from Democrat Scott Howell) |
|
Vermont |
Safe Democrat/Independent (Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, should easily win re-election) |
|
Virginia |
Open seat, toss-up (For the past six months, the race for the open U.S. Senate seat between former Gov. Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen was a statistical dead heat; now, Kaine appears to have opened up a slight lead) |
|
Washington |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Maria Cantwell's poll numbers are looking strong in her run for re-election) |
|
West Virginia |
Likely Democrat (Sen. Joe Manchin's poll numbers are very strong against Republican millionaire John Raese, who is making his fourth Senate run) |
|
Wisconsin |
Open seat, toss-up (Democrats cleared the field for Rep. Tammy Baldwin to run for retiring Sen. Herb Kohl's (D) seat, and recent polls show her beating former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary and Gov. Tommy Thompson) |
|
Wyoming |
Safe Republican (Sen. John Barrasso, M.D., has given himself the right prescription to win re-election is this solid Republican state) |
Map 1 shows the current Senate makeup of the 112th Congress.
Map 2 shows the states in which a contested Senate election will take place in 2012.
Map 3 is an educated forecast, based on current information, of the way the map would look if the presidential election were held today.
Conclusions
Of the eight truly competitive races, six are now held by Senators who caucus with Democrats. Following are current predictions on the eight toss-up states:
|
State |
Prediction |
|
Connecticut |
Democratic hold. Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy should have an edge over Republican Linda McMahon thanks to President Obama's double-digit lead in this solidly Democratic state. |
|
Indiana |
Democratic pickup.State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who knocked off Sen. Richard Lugar in the Republican Primary, has veered too far right and could be a bit too conservative for the state. As a result, Congressman Joe Donnelly looks likely to pull off an electoral upset. |
|
Massachusetts |
Democratic pickup. Although Republican Scott Brown will win a clear majority of Independent voters in the Bay State, it won't be enough to overcome the onslaught of Democrats coming out to vote for President Obama. As part of her election strategy, former Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren is banking on keeping so-called "Reagan Democrats" in her camp. |
|
Missouri |
Democratic hold (Months ago, Sen. Claire McCaskill was considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, but comments made by her Republican opponent Rep. Todd Akin about so-called "legitimate rape" have completely flipped the race. Since mid-August, Akin's numbers have plummeted. Although President Obama will lose the state, Missouri will likely send McCaskill back to the Senate for a second term. |
|
Montana |
Republican pickup. In a close race, Rep. Denny Rehberg will likely knock off Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and return this seat to Republicans. |
|
North Dakota |
Republican pickup. Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp has had state-wide election success, winning her races with at least 62 percent support. But Republican Rep. Rick Berg is considered the favorite in this race thanks in part to the likelihood of Obama losing the state. North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democrat on the national ticket since 1964. |
|
Virginia |
Democratic hold. Both Tim Kaine and George Allen have won state-wide contests. Republicans have had a number of major victories in recent years—including the race for Governor. However, in a race that will likely boil down to personalities and turn-out, Kaine should win in a squeaker. |
|
Wisconsin |
Democratic hold. What once looked like a probable Republican pickup is looking more and more like a narrow win by Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin over former Gov. Tommy Thompson. |
The Result
Since the last forecast, the race in Massachusetts has moved out of the "leans Republican" category and into "leans Democrat." In addition, Missouri has moved from "leans Republican" to "leans Democrat." Indiana has moved from the "toss-up" category to "leans Democrat," and Virginia has moved out of the "toss-up" category to "leans Democrat." If the rest of the forecast holds true, Democrats would retain control of the U.S. Senate with an unchanged 53–47 majority.
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