UK: Media Predictions 2010 - Part 2

Last Updated: 4 February 2010
Article by Deloitte Technology, Media & Telecommunications Industry Group

Most Read Contributor in UK, August 2017
This article is part of a series: Click Media Predictions 2010 - Part 1 for the previous article.

To read Part 1 of this article please click here

TV And The Web Belong Together, But Not Necessarily On The Same Screen

DTT TMT predicts that efforts to converge two of the biggest media distribution platforms — the Web and TV — will intensify in 2010. By year-end, more than 30 percent of broadband-enabled households are likely to interact occasionally or regularly with what they are watching on television through some form of computing device.63

However we anticipate that the most popular approach to delivering a converged Web and television experience won't be technology enabled. Instead a more pragmatic approach is likely to dominate: consumers are likely to fuse standard television sets with existing browser-enabled devices, such as WiFi enabled laptops, netbooks, MP4 players and portable games consoles and smartphones64. The convergence of televison and the Web will be driven by the user him or herself.

Attempts to move Web-based content onto televisions have been under way for many years, with little progress.65 Content optimized for PCs generally does not display well on television. Plus, content created on the assumption that the user will be equipped with a keyboard and mouse has proved challenging to interact with via standard remote controls. Also, and perhaps most critically, few televisions are Internet-connected. Even fewer have integrated Internet connections.

2010 is likely to see progress on all three fronts.66 Websites are being built specifically for access and control via televisions. Web-based applications being adapted for access through a television set are being marketed as "TV widgets." Social networks, weather information, and content streaming services are some of the many applications that widgets will make accessible through the TV screen. A growing range of next-generation televisions is being launched not only with integrated broadband connections but with preloaded TV widgets as well.67 Next-generation digital video recorders (DVRs) and set top boxes (STBs) will come with standard Internet accessibility.68 Tens of millions of game consoles are Internet ready, even though consumers may not always choose this option.

Despite this progress, we still expect that the most popular approach to converged Web and television consumption will be the rough but ready combination of standard television viewing and consumers' existing browser-based devices.

The mismatch between the standard ten-year renewal cycle for televisions and strong existing consumer desire for concurrent consumption of Internet- and television-based content has contributed to the triumph of the pragmatic approach to date.69 Most consumers are unlikely to justify a brand-new television just to have additional access to the Web, but they want to combine the Web and TV today. They want to discuss a television program with friends (or strangers), read movie reviews before deciding what to watch, search out gossip on a current show or series, or check sports statistics while the game is under way. And they do not want to wait for devices to catch up.

But a bigger reason why the demand for a truly integrated Internet and television environment may remain limited is that superimposing a Web application on top of a TV image may be as irritating as someone standing in front of the screen. An entire family's simultaneous social network commentary on the season finale of a reality show may leave little room to see what actually happens. And for some, sharing their personal commentary on a program with fellow viewers may be as appealing as making a romantic phone call in a crowded room.

Bottom Line

The idea of blending the passive experience of television and the reactive elements of the Web is likely to become a significant phenomenon by the end of 2010. But the main agents of this fusion are likely to be the user, the content producer, and advertisers rather than an integrated device.

Making televisions Internet-enabled, either through the set itself or an adjunct device such as a DVR, is likely to create value. Functionality ranging from catch-up on a big screen to remote software upgrades is also likely to be valued. But superimposing elements of the PC Web experience onto a television screen may prove to be the most commercially successful combination of Web and TV.

One of the major beneficiaries of increased simultaneous usage of the Web and television may be advertising. In 2010, global television advertising is expected to be worth $180 billion, while global online advertising is projected at $63 billion.70 Commercials viewed on television can direct viewers instantly to websites: it is now possible for a product seen during an advertising break to be purchased before the program resumes.71 One study found that using online and television together resulted in 47 percent more positivity about a brand than using either in isolation72.

As simultaneous Web and television use becomes more popular, television producers should create websites that not only support programming, but also feed off viewers' eagerness to react to what they are watching. Viewers can be directed to associated websites rather than surfing blindly looking for relevant information. Tie-in websites should be created for a range of devices (such as an MP4 player, netbook or smartphone), not just a PC. Talent shows, for example, may offer the chance to rate participants and their judges as well as guess that week's contest results.73 Sports programming may provide relevant, real-time statistics. Documentaries are likely to offer ancillary information. All genres are likely to solicit viewer feedback.

Music As A Service Rises Up The Charts

DTT TMT predicts that in 2010 subscription music services should finally start to thrive. Granted, the track record so far has been poor, ranging from modest success (a few hundred thousand subscribers per service74) to ignominious failure.75 In 2010, the number of paying subscribers — as opposed to individuals who simply register — should exceed 10 million for the first time. With subscriptions ranging between $40 and $180 per year, total revenues are likely to be small, at about US$100 million, especially compared with global sales of CDs ($14.4 billion76) or digital downloads ($6 billion). But the decline of the CD is well documented, and the medium is unlikely to see a renaissance. This opens a large door for subscription services.

There is unlikely to be a single stand-out reason for this expected growth. But overall, the subscription music service is likely to offer greater levels of functionality and become accessible on more platforms, including smartphones. As these services become more useful, consumers will probably buy and enjoy more subscription services, and they will become more valued as a result.

Online and offline access77 through mobile phones and other portable media devices78 across all major platforms79 should be a key driver of adoption. To date, subscription services have largely been fixed, PC-based offerings. Extending the service to portable devices — and in particular to the increasingly pervasive smartphone — enables the service to accompany the customer at all times, rather than just when sitting by a computer. The strong success of the MP3 player market this past decade and the enduring appeal of music radio has shown how powerful music is when portable. Enabling the music service to follow its owner blends ease-of-use, choice, and portability.

The growing desire among major industry players to make subscription music succeed is also likely to be key.80 Existing industry players are likely to develop a more accommodating approach to licensing, with declines in global CD revenues encouraging that flexibility.81 Music services may be offered licensing deals similar to those offered to radio stations, rather than just on a per-track basis.82

The number of subscription music services available should grow in 2010,83 even if some current providers close shop. Several major new music services are expected to launch. These may be pure-plays or existing technology or media companies aiming to diversify their revenue streams.84 Each wave of promotion, whether through conventional or viral advertising, is likely to raise the awareness of music services — although the entrance of new players could also drive average subscriptions down for the entire sector.

Competition should ideally encourage better overall service. The result should be a compelling, comprehensive service that blends the best elements of radio, music video, CD, and MP3 players, while exploiting the different capabilities of the devices used to access the service, including PCs, smartphones, and other portable music players.

By the end of 2010, new features are likely to include exclusive material such as live recordings85 or tracks from finalists in televised talent shows; celebrity top 10 play lists, narrated by the individual; content that puts music in perspective, such as documentaries or artist interviews; search functionality, including searches by lyric or sound sample86; click-to-purchase for tracks currently playing87; variable streaming quality; expert and algorithm-generated recommendations; and even step-by-step guided tours of cities with a musical heritage.

As music subscription providers push users towards premium tiers, free services currently used as a draw may be downgraded. The number of tracks that users are allowed to listen to per day will be limited, for example, and advertisements attached to free tracks will be played at higher volumes. Thus, the free versions of the service will be less appealing, and non-paying customers will be encouraged to upgrade to a paid subscription.

Bottom Line

The music industry needs little reminding of the need to fix the recorded music model. While demand for music in general remains strong and widespread, the CD is no longer a vehicle for growth.88

Premium subscription music services should be regarded as complementary and positive, not as a last resort. They should be considered a means of arresting the decline in recorded music revenues. The music industry should also be encouraged to note that the annual revenue per music subscriber is up to $180 per year, and is higher than that of a "heavy" CD buyer (someone who purchases at least one CD per month.)

Subscription services could also convert some of those who currently listen to music for free (legally or otherwise) from freeloaders to customers. Even in developed markets, a large proportion of the population does not purchase recorded music. For example, in the UK, 60 percent of individuals aged 12 and over do not purchase recorded music.89

The success of premium music services will depend on positioning. Selling on the basis of the money saved by not having to purchase all tracks is unlikely to convince most potential customers to buy in. Rather, services should be promoted on the offer of added value, whether because of its ability to access the service from any platform, the degree of customization available, the variety and caliber of exclusive content offered,90 or the integration with functionality specific to each platform.

Offering complete catalogs is likely to be important, but all services may suffer some omissions. Some artists may prohibit their content from pay services if they feel they could earn more through other distribution channels. Others may impose a window of availability. For instance, the song may only become available through the service after an initial period of exclusivity. Music services are likely to be selected on the basis of their momentum: if an increasing number of artists make their tracks available and offer custom content to one service, this should bolster a service. A steady flow of departures, however, could become ruinous.

While subscriptions offer a vast range of content, they need to be manageable to be useful. Without guidance, listeners are likely to get stuck in a rut of familiarity. Music may need to be more like radio (which in many markets remains the most popular way to consume music91) to show off the choice available.

The industry should also manage CD revenue falls without undue sentiment or haste. The CD has been in decline (from a revenue and average selling price perspective), for most of the decade. However, it is still likely to generate billions of dollars in revenue for several years. The industry should still enjoy some major CD successes, similar to that experienced by the Beatles Box Set, which sold strongly, even at $250, when it was released in September 2009.92 However the success of this re-master is more likely to foretell the CD's long-run destiny as a collector's item than signal its renaissance as a mass market medium.

Video-On-Demand Takes Off — Thanks To The Vending Machine

DTT TMT predicts that 2010 should see strong growth for video-on-demand (VOD), although the technology behind this growth — the vending machine — may surprise.93 Our expectation is that the volume and value of DVDs distributed via vending machine will double in 2010, mostly due to additional capacity.94 By the end of 2010, an estimated 30,000 DVD vending machines will be deployed in the US alone,95 each capable of holding up to 700 units96 and generating up to $50,000 a year.97

The common view is that telecommunications networks should eventually be the main distribution platform for VOD. We agree. At some point in the future, the Web should become the most efficient means of distributing long-form content. In fact, in many markets the network is already the best vehicle for disseminating short-form video. But in 2010, the vending machine is likely to be the principal driver for self-service, long-form VOD.

Technology, media, and telecommunications operators have long experimented with network-delivered VOD. Trials have generally proven technological feasibility but have been less convincing commercially. At one point in the mid-1990s, over 50 concurrent trials were under way — but most concluded without precipitating a commercial launch.

Despite significant investments in network-delivered VOD, by the end of 2009 the most commercially successful approach to self-service long-form video distribution was still a hybrid of Web-based self-selection and postal delivery. In the US in 2009, over 2 million DVDs were mailed daily to over 11 million subscribers,98 an outcome that few would have anticipated at the start of the decade. Indeed, the market leader for the United States, Netflix, was so-named in 1997 under the assumption that delivery of movies would eventually migrate to the Web. Similarly, lovefilm, a European player, was originally branded lovefilm.com under the assumption that most of its distribution would soon pass to the Web.

In 2000, even fewer would have anticipated that the greatest threat at the decade's end to both the Web and the post-hybrid models would be a 19th century technology: the vending machine.

Key drivers for the success of the DVD vending machine include price and ease-of-use. In the US market, DVDs are rented at a price of $1 per night, lower than the minimum subscription for most post-based or store-based rental services. In other markets, rentals are more expensive but still competitive with available alternatives. For customers in economies still in recession or recovering slowly in 2010, the low price is likely to hold its appeal, even if cumulative late fees may eventually exceed the DVD's retail price.

Ease-of-use is a major factor due to widespread familiarity with vending machines, among all age and social groups. In many markets, over 40 percent of the population remain infrequent users of the Internet. Also, accessibility is likely to become an increasingly powerful driver. Vending machines are likely to be deployed in locations with high foot traffic, such as fast food outlets, convenience stores, and subway stations. The more vending machines that are deployed, the more places DVDs can be rented from and returned to. Consumers will also likely be drawn to the immediacy of the delivery (at the push of a few buttons) rather than the need to wait for a few hours, as can be the case with network video-on-demand, or a day or more in the case of postal distribution.

Still, the vending machine model is likely to face some challenges in 2010, the most prominent of which is restricted access to DVDs. Some content owners may delay the sale of their DVDs to vending machine owners until a few weeks after initial release to protect sales revenues.99 Another challenge is the launch of lower-cost DVD rental plans or comparably priced pay television bundles.

Bottom Line

Old technologies can age well, and in the case of the vending machine they can still add value over a century after their invention.

Content owners, particularly in markets where DVD sales are in decline, should determine whether low-cost rentals are the cause of revenue declines or simply coincidental. It may be the case that those renting at $1 per night would never otherwise watch the movie. And those renting a movie may purchase the sequel or watch it at the movie theater.

Content owners should also consider how low-cost rental vending machines could drive complementary revenue streams, such as the ability to purchase the DVD outright. There may even be a business case to be made for vending machines specialized in new-release DVDs. New releases could also be rented at a higher price in the first week or two weeks after release.100 This could be particularly useful in markets whose retail distribution channels have shrunk in recent years.101

Content distributors should keep a close watch on the progress of network-delivered video-on-demand, even if this approach is unlikely to see major revenue growth in 2010. At some point the volume of Internet-connected PCs, as well as the ubiquity of sufficiently fast download speeds, should finally permit network-delivered full-length video. But there is a caveat. As more people get Internet-enabled televisions and networks get faster, file sizes are also expected to grow. The current size of a DVD runs to about 9 GB. The size of an HD DVD may reach 25 GB.102 Content distributors should note that envelopes (for mail delivery) and slots (for vending machines) are already able to handle such significant increments in file sizes — as long as the size of the disc remains constant. Networks may find it harder to be similarly future-proofed.

The content industry should also note the possible motivations for companies wanting to deploy DVD rental machines on their premises. Some retailers may simply want to generate rental income from third party vending machine distributors. Others may consider it simply as a means to generate additional revenues from their consumers. But in some cases the primary motivation may be to increase foot traffic and frequency of customer visits. In this latter case DVDs may be rented out at cost, or even less.

One Step Back, Two Steps Forward For 3D TV

Following a bumper year for 3D at the movies, DTT TMT anticipates that expectations will be high for an equivalent 3D-fueled boost to the television sector in 2010.103

This year should see several significant firsts for 3D television, including the launch of the first 3D TV channels in Europe104 and North America and the launch of numerous 3D-capable television sets.105 But 3D TV is likely to face some significant challenges as well. The potential for 3D to bolster the television industry's revenues is strong. But by year-end subscriber numbers, subscription and equipment revenues as well as available content are likely to remain negligible.

Much of 3D TV's initial challenge will likely be due to customer confusion, with the lack of a single 3D TV standard serving as the central obstacle. Consumers are likely to be presented with an array of products and experiences all bearing 3D branding, but none of them quite the same.

Indeed, in the first half of the year, the most common form of 3D watched on television sets may well be based on technology first used in the 19th century — the anaglyph.106 This requires viewers to wear red and blue colored glasses, which, when used with anaglyph images, combine an image for the left eye with one for the right to create a 3D effect. While technologically stagnant, it is available to any household with a TV set. The only device upgrade required — a set of anaglyph glasses — is cheap enough to be given away for free.

As of January 2010, tens of millions of households around the world are likely to be the recent, proud owners of a set of anaglyph glasses, courtesy of 3D DVD gift box sets.107 In early 2010, some broadcasters may decide to seize on the cinema-driven popularity of 3D and the ubiquity of 3D glasses to offer anaglyph 3D content.108

At the same time, the spread of anaglyph in the home may well confuse those whose expectations of 3D quality have been set by their experiences at the movie theater. Most cinemas projecting in 3D use polarized images.109 This technique, based on controlling the amount of light reaching the eye, is far superior to anaglyph, so watching movies using the old technology may prove disappointing. 3D simulation may appear less realistic, and the viewing experience may prove tiring for some.

To compound the confusion, a growing number of 3D television sets, based on two other approaches, are expected to be available in 2010. Each approach offers a different blend of cost and user experience.

The first pairs a television set featuring a screen refresh rate of at least 120 Hz with shuttered glasses that alternate left and right images.110 The shutter is controlled by a unit connected to the television. The result is a 3D experience with an equivalent refresh rate of 60 Hz or higher. The disadvantage is that the glasses are likely to be expensive, initially roughly $50 per viewer.111

The other technology combines a television with low-cost, polarized glasses, the same type currently used in movie theaters. However the cost of such television sets, which feature a special polarized screen, will likely remain at over $3,000 for most of 2010.112

The coexistence of multiple standards could frustrate customers. Some subscribers to 3D television services may find that their 3D-ready television is incompatible with the service they have signed up for. But by year-end, the hope is that resolution on 3D standards will be imminent.

Another possible challenge for 3D TV is a lack of 3D content. Available 3D content, mostly films, may prove too expensive to license for anyone but pay-television channels. Broadcasters and independent producers — many currently absorbing the additional costs of high definition (HD) production — might be wary of producing in a format with even greater costs. The majority of 3D content created specifically for television in 2010 may be limited to major sports events and high-profile nature documentaries.

The costs of making television in 3D should become more affordable over time. There are likely to be several significant technological breakthroughs in 2010, such as the launch of integrated 3D cameras.113 But overall, the cost of creating in 3D is likely to remain markedly more expensive than 2D.114

By the end of 2010, 3D television should have made steady progress. The quantity of content broadcast, and the addressable market for 3D TV, are likely to remain tiny by year-end. But the potential should still be significant as the foundations for 3D productions begin to fall into place, and consumer interest in 3D should remain high due to a constant flow of 3D movies.

Bottom Line

The television sector should drive additional revenues from 3D in the midterm. As with many innovations, such as HD, mass-market demand is not going to emerge overnight.115 But the mid- to long-term benefits of making 3D television work, in the forms of remaining competitive with other forms of home entertainment, generating incremental subscription revenues, offering a compelling advertising medium, driving equipment sales, and even contributing to the fight against digital piracy, are on the whole significant enough to make 3D more likely than not.

A minimal role for 3D at year-end 2010 — particularly following another strong year for 3D at the cinema — should not therefore be regarded a failure.116

The television sector needs to set expectations accordingly, both internally and with the public. A key objective should be to agree on and promote a single definition of 3D television.117

The industry should steadily develop all aspects of its 3D capability, from learning how to storyboard in 3D, to developing affordable post-production techniques, to evolving cost-efficient transmission approaches. Those who commission TV programs should consider 3D for all forms of content and not confine commissioning to thrillers and sports. Specialist channels such as shopping channels should evaluate 3D's potential impact on sales volumes.

The sector should also consider a variety of business models. 3D broadcast is likely to have at least 30 percent higher bandwidth demand than for 2D — perhaps up to 20 megabits per second.118 This means that broadcast platforms with limited bandwidth, such as digital terrestrial television, may need to consider a pay TV model, unless the advertising119 premium for 3D is equivalent or superior to the cost of the additional bandwidth required.120

Television should regard the growing demand for 3D at the cinema as a marketing tool for 3D in the home. The more 3D is watched at the cinema, the more viewers will want to have a similar experience in their homes. The more 3D content that is created, the greater the flow of 3D photography and production skills in the industry, and the greater the economies of scale for 3D cameras and production equipment.

The 3D TV industry could receive an indirect boost from the video games sector. A household may justify the purchase of a 3D-ready television on the basis of the ability to play games in 3D as well as watch broadcast television in 3D.121 Hundreds of video game titles can already be played in 3D.

Footnotes

63. In the US, according to one survey, 74 percent of 25-34 year old citizens watch television and use the Internet concurrently. Source: Multitasking at Home: Simultaneous Use of Media Grows, Nielsen Wire, 14 September 2009: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/multitasking-at-home-simultaneous-use-of-media-grows. As of the start of 2010, about 20 countries are likely to have household broadband penetration of over 50 percent. Based on data for year-end 2008, when 17 countries had passed 50 percent penetration and four countries' penetration was between 40 percent and 50 percent. Source: OECD Broadband Portal, 20 May 2009: http://www.oecd.org/document/54/0,3343,en_2649_34225_38690102_1_1_1_1,00.html

64. According to one survey, 54 percent of UK television viewers access the Internet while watching television. Source: Deloitte / YouGov survey undertaken for the 2009 Media Guardian International Television Festival. See: www.deloitte.co.uk/mgeitf

65. TV shapes up as Web Battleground, The Wall Street Journal, 23 September 2009: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125366988207032789.html

66 Is TV the New PC?, Gigaom, 8 May 2007: http://gigaom.com/2007/05/08/is-tv-the-new-pc/

67. Television's killer app, Variety, 14 August 2009: http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118007284.html?categoryid=1019&cs=1

68. IP STBs and connected TVs, Opera Software: http://www.opera.com/business/solutions/devices/iptv/

69. Is TV the New PC?, Gigaom, 8 May 2007: http://gigaom.com/2007/05/08/is-tv-the-new-pc/

70. ZenithOptimedia: global online advertising to grow 10 percent in 2009 against total ad spend falls, Digital Strategy Consulting, 7 June 2009: http://www.digitalstrategyconsulting.com/intelligence/2009/07/zenithoptimedia_global_online.php

71. Television's Got Talent, Deloitte, August 19, 2009 According to one survey, 20 percent of UK television viewers have purchased a product or service online, having seen it advertised on television. Source: Deloitte/YouGov survey undertaken for the 2009 Media Guardian International Television Festival. See: www.deloitte.co.uk/mgeitf

72. TV & Online: Better Together, Thinkbox. See: http://www.thinkbox.tv/server/show/nav.1019

73.Television websites thrive during prime time, Nielsen-Netratings, 11 April 2007: http://www.nielsen-online.com/pr/pr_070411.pdf; for examples see: http://www.bravotv.com/americas-next-top-model/rate-the-looks; http://www.bbc.co.uk/strictlycomedancing/play/

74. Rhapsody Fails to See iPhone App-induced Bump, Gigaom, 29 October 2009: http://gigaom.com/2009/10/29/rhapsody-fails-to-see-iphone-app-induced-bump/; A year later, Nokia's music service has few users, Macworld, 16 October 2009: http://www.macworld.com/article/143356/2009/10/nokia_comeswithmusic.html

75. SpiralFrog's turmoil, in missives, CNET News, 11 August 2009: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-10306649-93.html?tag=mncol;txt

76. Recorded Music and Music Publishing, Enders Analysis, 4 June 2009. [no URL]

77. Digital music startup Deezer debuts desktop client, premium offering, TechCrunch Europe, 5 November 2009: http://eu.techcrunch.com/2009/11/05/digital-music-startup-deezer-debuts-desktop-client-premium-offering/

78. HTC Hero + Spotify now available at 3 UK website and stores, TechCrunch, 6 November 2009: http://eu.techcrunch.com/2009/11/06/htc-hero-spotify-nowavailable-at-3-uk-website-and-stores/; Free digital music service Spotify bids to live up to the hype, Times Online, 13 September 2009: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article6832141.ece

79. Spotify is the new Napster – But which one? Gigaom, 17 september 2009: http://gigaom.com/2009/09/17/spotify-is-the-new-napster-but-which-one/

80. Sony/BMG and Universal invest in MOG, Wired, 29 April 2008: http://www.wired.com/listening_post/2008/04/sonybmg-and-uni/; Free digital music service Spotify bids to live up to the hype, Times Online, 13 September 2009: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article6832141.ece

81. EMI drops suit, signs licensing deal with Grooveshark, ethioPlanet, 16 October 2009: http://www.ethioplanet.com/news/2009/10/16/emi-drops-suit-signs-licensing-deal-with-grooveshark/

82. For a discussion on this topic, see: Spotify rocks – but without a compulsory, public digital music license they are doomed, Media Futurist, 27 July 2009: http://www.mediafuturist.com/2009/07/i-love-spotify-but.html

83. Digital music services: the next 'added value' offering?, Marketing Week, 15 October 2009: http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/digital-music-services-the-next-%E2%80%98added-value%E2%80%99-offering?/3005600.article; MOG's $5 monthly music service highlights Spotify obstacle, Wired, 14 October 2009: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/10/mogs-5-per-month-music-service-highlights-spotify-obstacles/

84. Skype founders assembling killer team for new online music startup, IFV news, 7 November 2009: http://www.ifvnews.com/content/skype-founders-assemblingkiller-team-new-

85. Secret Rihanna gig to stream live on mobile phones, Times Online, 6 November 2009: http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6906775.ece

86. MOG adds lyrics, interviews, blog tools, Wired, 12 June 2008: http://www.wired.com/listening_post/2008/06/mog-adds-lyrics/

87. Spotify download service threatens iTunes, Times Online, 11 October 2009: http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/personal_tech/article6868135.ece

88. The CD has barely evolved since first launched. Re-invention that has been attempted, such as Digital Audio Tape (DAT) and Super Audio CD (SACD), has managed modest success at best. By contrast, today's music player, Internet, mobile communications, and video games have all evolved immeasurably. Indeed, in 1982, when the first CDs went on sale, Sony's Walkman was just three years old, the Internet Protocol (IP) had just been agreed upon, mobile telephony had yet to launch in the US, and a leading-edge game console boasted 24K of digital memory and a palette of 8 colors.

89. Economic Insight, PRS for Music, 4 November 2009: http://www.prsformusic.com/creators/news/research/Documents/Economic%20Insight%2016%20ARPU.pdf

90. Michael Masnick The Trent Reznor case study, YouTube, February 2009: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njuo1puB1lg

91.Measured by aggregate hours listened. In 2008, consumption of radio in the UK averaged 20.1 hours per person and reach was 89.5 percent on a weekly basis. Radio consumption is a blend of speech and music: "specialist news and chat radio" represents 6 percent of all listening for commercial radio stations; speech (Radio 4) represents 12.4 percent of all listening for BBC stations. By comparison, UK citizens listened to pre-recorded music for 5.4 hours per week. Sources: http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cmr09/CMRMain_3.pdf and Deloitte Media Democracy survey, UK results, 2008. In the US, radio reaches 77 percent of adults on a daily basis; 37 percent listen to CDs and tapes; 12 percent listen to portable audio devices. Of the last group, consumption of radio was 97 minutes per day compared to 67 minutes for portable music devices. Source: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/within-ad-supported-mediabroadcast-radio-reach-is-second-only-to-live-television-study-finds/

92. Remastered Beatles box sets sell out on Amazon, Los Angeles Times, 9 September 2009: http://articles.latimes.com/2009/sep/09/entertainment/et-beatles-sales9

93.Netflix Q2 call: More Streaming, More Redbox, NewTeeVee, 23 July 2009: http://newteevee.com/2009/07/23/netflix-q2-call-more-streaming-more-redbox/

94. For the US market, vending machine's share of the overall DVD rental market is expected to reach 30 percent, up from 19 percent in October 2009. Netflix's share was estimated at 36 percent in November October 2009. Source: Movie machines buck trend in America, Times Online, 29 October 2009: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/united_states/article6894637.ece

95. Chain could have 10,000 kiosks by 2010, Video Business, 4 August 2008: www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6584286.html

96. Movie machines buck trend in America, Times Online, 29 October 2009: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/united_states/article6894637.ece

97. The DVD vending machine market leader, Redbox, reported a 90 percent increase in revenue to Q3 2009. Source: Redbox Q3 Revenue Up 90 percent Over Last Year, NewTeeVee, 6 November 2009: http://newteevee.com/2009/11/06/redbox-q3-revenue-up-90-over-last-year/

98. Netflix notches 2 billionth delivery with a Blu-ray disc, Engadget, 2 April 2009: http://www.engadget.com/2009/04/02/netflix-notches-2-billionth-delivery-with-ablu-ray-disc/

99. Three for Three: Redbox Sues Warner, NewTeeVee, 19 August 2009: http://newteevee.com/2009/08/19/three-for-three-redbox-sues-warner/; and Redbox Riles Up the Movie Industry, Files Suit Against Fox, NewTeeVee, 12 August 2009 : http://newteevee.com/2009/08/12/redbox-riles-up-the-movie-industry-files-suitagainst-fox/

100. Redbox tinkers with higher prices, tries $2 first-night rentals in PA, Yahoo Tech, 3 November 2009: http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/patterson/59145

101. For example, in the US market, Tower Records' bankruptcy in 2006 led to the closure of 89 major stores; in the UK market, the bankruptcies of Zavvi and Woolworths caused the closure of 125 and 815 DVD outlets respectively: Tower Records to be liquidated, Hollywood Reporter, 7 October 2006: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/search/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003221956; Job Losses As Zavvi Stores Close, Sky News, 8 January 2009: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Zavvi-To-Close-22-Stores-With-Loss-Of-178-Jobs-Administrator-For-CD-And-DVD-Retailer-Says/Article/200901215199464?lpos=Business_News_Your_Way_; Blu-ray Lights Up UK DVD Sales, Billboard.biz, 2 January 2009: http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3i7a4b4ca5771c6f2dad18916107751eb3

102. If HD is upgraded to 2,000 lines, this would mean four times the file size of the current best resolution HD. And if the content is in 3D, this would make the file size at least 30% larger.

103. For example see: 3D TV coming soon to a living room near you, CTV News, 9 October 2009, http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20091009/ENT_3D_TV_091009/20091009?hub=SciTech; and Coming soon to the small screen: TV in 3D, Reuters, 29 September 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/televisionNews/idUSTRE58S40820090929

104. BSkyB to launch Europe's first 3D TV channel next year, guardian.co.uk, 30 July 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jul/30/bskyb-sky-3d-tv; and The next dimension, Media Week, 8 September 2009: http://www.mediaweek.co.uk/news/936682/next-dimension/

105. Sony: 3D TV 'in every home' next year, MCV UK, 2 September 2009: http://www.mcvuk.com/news/35654/Sony-3D-TV-in-every-home-next-year

106. To see examples, see: http://www.3d-image.net/;and http://video.google.co.uk/videosearch?hl=en&q=anaglyph+3d&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=yYf9SpS4EJWi4QaGv6n8Cw&sa=X&oi=video_result_group&ct=title&resnum=8&ved=0CCYQqwQwBw

107. For example, see: http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_ss_3_3?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=3d+dvds&sprefix=3d+&sprefix=3d+&sprefix=3d+&sprefix=3d+

108. 3D vs 3D: Ooze gonna save us?, Broadcast, 9 September 2009: http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/technology/3d-vs-3d-ooze-gonna-save-us/5005402.article

109. For a discussion on the potential confusion from broadcast anaglyph 3D, see: Monsters vs. Aliens to become the first 3D trailer in Superbowl history?, Slashfilm.com, 3 January 2009, http://www.slashfilm.com/2009/01/03/monsters-vs-aliens-to-become-the-first-3d-trailer-in-superbowl-history/

110. For example, see: Sony Bravia 3DTV – First Look review, Pocket Lint, 7 September 2009, http://www.pocket-lint.com/review/4279/sony-bravia-3dtv-television-review

111. Panasonic 50in 3D TV unveiled, Trusted Reviews, 7 October 2009; http://www.trustedreviews.com/tvs/news/2009/10/07/Panasonic-50in-3D-TV-Unveiled/p1

112. Interviews with industry executives undertaken specifically for this report: and TV aims for the third dimension, The Guardian, 22 January 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/jan/22/3d-television

113. Sony develops high frame rate single lens 3D camera technology, Sony press release, 1 October 2009; http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/200910/09-117E/index.html

114. Additional costs relative to standard definition are likely to be 20 percent greater, if "done properly." Source: Dan Mulligan on stereo 3D, Broadcast, 2 July 2009: http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/technology/dan-mulligan-on-stereo-3d/5003177.article; also see: The next dimension, Media Week, 8 September 2009: http://www.mediaweek.co.uk/news/936682/next-dimension/

115. Crowded theatres build momentum for 3-D at home, Associated Press, 26 October 2009: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5imI5SjGZm3z2E0wByQd7jsus7U4wD9BIPU2G0

116. For a guide on 3D box office revenues, see: http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=3d.htm

117. IBC 2009: Assessing the 3D battleground, Broadcast, 15 September 2009: http://www.broadcastnow.co.uk/technology/ibc-2009-assessing-the-3dbattleground/5005723.article

118. 3-D HDTV is starting to get more in focus, msnbc.com, 24 September 2009: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32942253/ns/technology_and_sciencetech_and_gadgets/page/2/

119. For examples of 3D ads commissioned for the theater, see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXbvKTdqCmE; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DQnpzDZ_oQ

120. The next dimension, Media Week, 8 September 2009: http://www.mediaweek.co.uk/news/936682/next-dimension/

121. Is 3D the future of PC and console gaming?, Guardian.co.uk, 11 November 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2009/nov/10/games1

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

To print this article, all you need is to be registered on Mondaq.com.

Click to Login as an existing user or Register so you can print this article.

This article is part of a series: Click Media Predictions 2010 - Part 1 for the previous article.
Authors
 
In association with
Related Video
Up-coming Events Search
Tools
Print
Font Size:
Translation
Channels
Mondaq on Twitter
 
Register for Access and our Free Biweekly Alert for
This service is completely free. Access 250,000 archived articles from 100+ countries and get a personalised email twice a week covering developments (and yes, our lawyers like to think you’ve read our Disclaimer).
 
Email Address
Company Name
Password
Confirm Password
Position
Mondaq Topics -- Select your Interests
 Accounting
 Anti-trust
 Commercial
 Compliance
 Consumer
 Criminal
 Employment
 Energy
 Environment
 Family
 Finance
 Government
 Healthcare
 Immigration
 Insolvency
 Insurance
 International
 IP
 Law Performance
 Law Practice
 Litigation
 Media & IT
 Privacy
 Real Estate
 Strategy
 Tax
 Technology
 Transport
 Wealth Mgt
Regions
Africa
Asia
Asia Pacific
Australasia
Canada
Caribbean
Europe
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
U.K.
United States
Worldwide Updates
Check to state you have read and
agree to our Terms and Conditions

Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement

Mondaq.com (the Website) is owned and managed by Mondaq Ltd and as a user you are granted a non-exclusive, revocable license to access the Website under its terms and conditions of use. Your use of the Website constitutes your agreement to the following terms and conditions of use. Mondaq Ltd may terminate your use of the Website if you are in breach of these terms and conditions or if Mondaq Ltd decides to terminate your license of use for whatever reason.

Use of www.mondaq.com

You may use the Website but are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the content and articles available (the Content). You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these terms & conditions or with the prior written consent of Mondaq Ltd. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information about Mondaq.com’s content, users or contributors in order to offer them any services or products which compete directly or indirectly with Mondaq Ltd’s services and products.

Disclaimer

Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published on this server for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from this server.

The documents and related graphics published on this server could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time.

Registration

Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including what sort of information you are interested in, for three primary purposes:

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, newsletter alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our information providers who provide information free for your use.

Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) do not sell or provide your details to third parties other than information providers. The reason we provide our information providers with this information is so that they can measure the response their articles are receiving and provide you with information about their products and services.

If you do not want us to provide your name and email address you may opt out by clicking here .

If you do not wish to receive any future announcements of products and services offered by Mondaq by clicking here .

Information Collection and Use

We require site users to register with Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to view the free information on the site. We also collect information from our users at several different points on the websites: this is so that we can customise the sites according to individual usage, provide 'session-aware' functionality, and ensure that content is acquired and developed appropriately. This gives us an overall picture of our user profiles, which in turn shows to our Editorial Contributors the type of person they are reaching by posting articles on Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) – meaning more free content for registered users.

We are only able to provide the material on the Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) site free to site visitors because we can pass on information about the pages that users are viewing and the personal information users provide to us (e.g. email addresses) to reputable contributing firms such as law firms who author those pages. We do not sell or rent information to anyone else other than the authors of those pages, who may change from time to time. Should you wish us not to disclose your details to any of these parties, please tick the box above or tick the box marked "Opt out of Registration Information Disclosure" on the Your Profile page. We and our author organisations may only contact you via email or other means if you allow us to do so. Users can opt out of contact when they register on the site, or send an email to unsubscribe@mondaq.com with “no disclosure” in the subject heading

Mondaq News Alerts

In order to receive Mondaq News Alerts, users have to complete a separate registration form. This is a personalised service where users choose regions and topics of interest and we send it only to those users who have requested it. Users can stop receiving these Alerts by going to the Mondaq News Alerts page and deselecting all interest areas. In the same way users can amend their personal preferences to add or remove subject areas.

Cookies

A cookie is a small text file written to a user’s hard drive that contains an identifying user number. The cookies do not contain any personal information about users. We use the cookie so users do not have to log in every time they use the service and the cookie will automatically expire if you do not visit the Mondaq website (or its affiliate sites) for 12 months. We also use the cookie to personalise a user's experience of the site (for example to show information specific to a user's region). As the Mondaq sites are fully personalised and cookies are essential to its core technology the site will function unpredictably with browsers that do not support cookies - or where cookies are disabled (in these circumstances we advise you to attempt to locate the information you require elsewhere on the web). However if you are concerned about the presence of a Mondaq cookie on your machine you can also choose to expire the cookie immediately (remove it) by selecting the 'Log Off' menu option as the last thing you do when you use the site.

Some of our business partners may use cookies on our site (for example, advertisers). However, we have no access to or control over these cookies and we are not aware of any at present that do so.

Log Files

We use IP addresses to analyse trends, administer the site, track movement, and gather broad demographic information for aggregate use. IP addresses are not linked to personally identifiable information.

Links

This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that Mondaq (or its affiliate sites) are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of these third party sites. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this Web site.

Surveys & Contests

From time-to-time our site requests information from users via surveys or contests. Participation in these surveys or contests is completely voluntary and the user therefore has a choice whether or not to disclose any information requested. Information requested may include contact information (such as name and delivery address), and demographic information (such as postcode, age level). Contact information will be used to notify the winners and award prizes. Survey information will be used for purposes of monitoring or improving the functionality of the site.

Mail-A-Friend

If a user elects to use our referral service for informing a friend about our site, we ask them for the friend’s name and email address. Mondaq stores this information and may contact the friend to invite them to register with Mondaq, but they will not be contacted more than once. The friend may contact Mondaq to request the removal of this information from our database.

Security

This website takes every reasonable precaution to protect our users’ information. When users submit sensitive information via the website, your information is protected using firewalls and other security technology. If you have any questions about the security at our website, you can send an email to webmaster@mondaq.com.

Correcting/Updating Personal Information

If a user’s personally identifiable information changes (such as postcode), or if a user no longer desires our service, we will endeavour to provide a way to correct, update or remove that user’s personal data provided to us. This can usually be done at the “Your Profile” page or by sending an email to EditorialAdvisor@mondaq.com.

Notification of Changes

If we decide to change our Terms & Conditions or Privacy Policy, we will post those changes on our site so our users are always aware of what information we collect, how we use it, and under what circumstances, if any, we disclose it. If at any point we decide to use personally identifiable information in a manner different from that stated at the time it was collected, we will notify users by way of an email. Users will have a choice as to whether or not we use their information in this different manner. We will use information in accordance with the privacy policy under which the information was collected.

How to contact Mondaq

You can contact us with comments or queries at enquiries@mondaq.com.

If for some reason you believe Mondaq Ltd. has not adhered to these principles, please notify us by e-mail at problems@mondaq.com and we will use commercially reasonable efforts to determine and correct the problem promptly.